Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Chicago Cubs are enduring a brutal losing streak, dropping 10 of 12 games. Manager Craig Counsell is preparing to shake up the struggling lineup.
- To fix terrible hitting with runners in scoring position, Ian Happ should move to leadoff. Michael Conforto can hit fourth, dropping Nico Hoerner to fifth.
- Optimizing the batting order leverages Happ's ability to get on base while minimizing his costly strikeouts, potentially sparking the offense to win games.
The Chicago Cubs lost for the 10th time in 12 games on Friday, falling 4-2 in the first game of their weekend series against the Houston Astros. Manager Craig Counsell sounds ready to make whatever changes might be necessary to put an end to the skid.
After the loss, Counsell told reporters that he will shake up the lineup, per Bruce Levine of WSCR. Of course, Cubs fans want to know exactly how much of a shakeup to expect. The manager could swap Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki and that would technically count as a lineup tweak. But it wouldn't solve the problems that have been dogging the Cubs for weeks.
Hopefully, Counsell has something more like this in mind...
Projected Cubs lineup to end losing streak
Original Lineup | Shakeup Lineup Projection |
|---|---|
2B Nico Hoerner | LF Ian Happ |
1B Michael Busch | 1B Michael Busch |
3B Alex Bregman | 3B Alex Bregman |
LF Ian Happ | DH Michael Conforto |
RF Seiya Suzuki | 2B Nico Hoerner |
DH Michael Conforto | RF Seiya Suzuki |
C Carson Kelly | C Carson Kelly |
CF Pete Crow-Armstrong | SS Dansby Swanson |
SS Dansby Swanson | CF Pete Crow-Armstrong |
The Cubs were 0-of-9 with runners in scoring position against the Astros. That's not an outlier. This season the Cubs rank 26th in RISP batting average. Two players bear the brunt of the blame on that front. Seiya Suzuki's .130 RISP batting average is the fourth-worst among qualified players in the majors. Ian Happ is close by at sixth with .143.
Happ leads all qualified players with 29 strikeouts in high-leverage situations. He's five clear of anyone else too. That's been catastrophic for the Cubs, especially with Suzuki contributing 21 himself. So Counsell's first priority should be to address the issue.
At the risk of unsettling Nico Hoerner, Counsell should consider moving Happ to the leadoff spot, where he's far less likely to end up in an RISP situation. Happ's on-base percentage is solid at .353. In fact, he's drawn more walks than any other Cub this season. He'd be of more use to Chicago as someone relied on to get on base, rather than being responsible for driving in runs. Meanwhile, Hoerner is in a bit of a slump and could benefit from a change of pace. He'd drop down into the five hole, where he's spent six games already this season.
I can already hear the shouting about giving Happ more plate appearances. I get it. The ones he already has are causing Cubs fans to pull out their hair. But this is about putting Happ in the best position to help the team. In the leadoff spot, his on-base percentage is that much more useful while his strikeouts become far less costly.
Moving Happ would open the door for Michael Conforto to slot into a more impactful spot in the lineup. Conforto doesn't have a large sample size with RISP, but his OPS in 13 at-bats in that situation is .988. Chicago can give him more opportunities to show what he's got batting fourth. In general, Conforto has been one of the Cubs' best hitters over the last month. In May, he's slashing .345/.441/.793 with an OPS of 1.234.
Finally, swapping Pete Crow-Armstrong and Dansby Swanson is a minor and probably unimpactful move...but it also couldn't hurt. Those two guys just have to get their bats going.
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