Free agency hasn't even technically begun yet, and we've already gotten our first big surprise of the MLB offseason. Chicago Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga wasn't on anybody's radar this offseason, given the team's desperate need for starting pitching and the relatively reasonable three-year, $57 million club option remaining on his deal. But in a shocking turn of events, Chicago decided to decline that option; and after Imanaga in turn declined a $15 million player option for 2026, he's now set to hit the open market.
As if this winter wasn't already intriguing enough, now one more notable arm has joined a deep free-agent class. Granted, his end to 2025 was likely why Chicago felt comfortable letting him go; the home run, in particular, haunted Imanaga this year, and he flopped in his NLDS start against the Milwaukee Brewers. But it wasn't too long ago that he was taking the Majors by storm, and there figure to be plenty of teams interested in his services. Just which of those teams might hurt the Cubs most? Let's dive in.
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Breaking baseball
Los Angeles Dodgers
I wouldn't position the Dodgers as the most likely suitor for Imanaga this winter. Their dance card is pretty full in the rotation with Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow locked in, Roki Sasaki eying his return and youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Justin Wrobleski looming, and there are more pressing matters for Andrew Friedman to attend to (especially the bullpen).
But you can never have too much pitching, and no team knows that better than the Dodgers given the injuries they've had to deal with in recent years. Plus, we know how much pull they have with players from Japan. If Imanaga's open to a shorter-term deal, don't rule out the rich getting richer just because they can.
A Cubs fan's worst nightmare
St. Louis Cardinals
Sure, this might not be quite the doomsday scenario as Imanaga to the Dodgers, but it would create quite the awkward situation between two hated rivals.
The St. Louis Cardinals don't figure to be major players in free agency as they begin a retooling under Chaim Bloom. That said, they do need pitching, and while preferably that pitching would be younger and more cost-controlled than someone like Imanaga, the fact of the matter is that young, cost-controlled pitchers aren't exactly easy to come by. Someone's going to have to eat up innings, and Imanaga would fit well in one of the friendlier ballparks around for fly-ball pitchers. Plus, his down end to 2025 could keep his price reasonable, allowing the Cardinals to pounce on a low-risk deal that they can always flip for value at the trade deadline.
Not ideal
New York Mets
While it wouldn't hurt quite as much as L.A. or St. Louis, watching Imanaga head to one of Chicago's chief rivals in the NL next season wouldn't feel great. The New York Mets need as much pitching as they can get their hands on this winter after last year's implosion. Fans no doubt want the sort of true ace that could bring some stability and take pressure off guys like Clay Holmes and David Peterson and youngsters like Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong. But that's easier said than done, David Stearns is open to finding value wherever he can. If Imanaga's value declines enough, it should be on the table.
New York Yankees
Admittedly, this one feels like a long shot. A fly-ball pitcher like Imanaga feels like a nightmarish fit for not only Yankee Stadium but also Fenway Park, and Brian Cashman should be more focused on rebuilding his outfield and bullpen. That said, rotation depth is a need given the question marks surrounding Gerrit Cole's return and the fact that Clarke Schmidt may well not pitch at all in 2026. New York wasn't in on Imanaga when he first came over from Japan, but that had more to do with Juan Soto (and the fact that the team had just signed Carlos Rodon in the previous offseason) than anything else. They'd be toward the bottom of my list, but they can't be left off entirely.
San Diego Padres
Now we're getting somewhere interesting. We know the San Diego Padres need to add not just one but multiple starters over the offseason, with Yu Darvish out for 2026 after undergoing elbow surgery and both Dylan Cease and Michael King off to free agency. We also know that Petco Park, with its spacious dimensions and coastal air, is an excellent place for a fly-ball pitcher to call home (few parks were better at suppressing damage from righty batters last year).
The fit here feels awfully clean, and San Diego's limited budget this winter means that Imanaga is probably toward the top end of feasible options for AJ Preller. Which would be fine for the Cubs in so far as it gets him out of the division and away from the Dodgers, but would still place him on the team Chicago just faced in the postseason and might again next year.
San Francisco Giants
There would appear to be a better-than-average chance of Imanaga winding up somewhere in the NL West next season. In terms of run suppression, few stadiums do it better than Oracle Park; short of Seattle or a return to Wrigley, Imanaga could hardly choose a friendlier home environment. And the Giants need to add starting pitching this winter, with few known quantities after Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
San Francisco would also love to make inroads with Japanese free agents, and Imanaga could allow Buster Posey to address a need while still having enough cash left over for a run at somebody like Kyle Tucker.
Not too bad
Baltimore Orioles
Sure, the thought of Imanaga making road starts in the Bronx or Boston should fill O's fans with dread. But Camden Yards itself was among the most hostile in the league to right-handed power, which would seem to bode well for Imanaga's chances. Just as importantly for Mike Elias, he would give Baltimore a desperately needed rotation addition to support Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish and (hopefully) Grayson Rodriguez, and would do so at a price that wouldn't make anybody in this spend-thrift organization uncomfortable.
Detroit Tigers
No matter how the Tarik Skubal situation resolves itself this winter, Detroit is going to need to add at least one other starting pitcher via free agency or trade. It seems unlikely that Scott Harris would be willing to play at or near the top of the pitching market, especially not with Skubal's extension talks hanging over his head. So Imanaga would make a good deal of sense as a lower-cost option, one who would seem to fit well in the spacious confines (and very strong outfield defense) of Comerica Park.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels surprised everybody when they ponied up for Yusei Kikuchi last offseason. Could they do so again in 2025? I wouldn't rule it out: Sure, it's not the Dodgers, but it is still Los Angeles, and we know that Arte Moreno is always desperate to find somebody willing to take his money. Lord knows this rotation could use the help, and Imanaga would represent a floor-raising option that probably wouldn't hamstring the Halos' long-term flexibility. If other contenders get scared off by his red flags, the Angels could pounce.