Red Sox might galaxy brain themselves into massive free agency mistake

The Red Sox need to prioritize the right things in free agency this winter.
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The Boston Red Sox are in dire need of a power infusion in their lineup, making free agents like Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, two of the most-feared sluggers in the game, outstanding fits. While both players make sense, Schwarber, the better player, would be the right player to prioritize. Unfortunately, Ian Browne of MLB.com believes Boston might end up preferring Alonso over Schwarber for a couple of reasons.

Browne points out that Alonso is right-handed while Schwarber is left-handed, and Alonso won't have a qualifying offer attached while Schwarber will, meaning the Red Sox wouldn't have to part with any additional compensation to sign him. These factors understandably do make Alonso more attractive than he otherwise would be, but the Red Sox can ill-afford to pass on the better player. That's what they'd be doing if they signed Alonso instead of Schwarber.

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Kyle Schwarber is a better fit for the Red Sox than Pete Alonso

Being right-handed at Fenway Park has its advantages. The Green Monster helps make Fenway Park very hitter-friendly for hitters who use left field a lot, and right field at Fenway Park gets very deep. I can understand wanting to prioritize a righty over a lefty, especially when the Red Sox have a left-handed-heavy lineup as is, but the Schwarber vs. Alonso debate needs to go beyond that for a couple of reasons.

First, we've already seen Schwarber dominate at Fenway Park. He had a .957 OPS as a member of the Red Sox in 2021, and had several memorable moments that postseason. Schwarber has also hit .344 with a 1.122 OPS in 26 regular season games at Fenway Park in his career. Alonso, to his credit, has also played well at Fenway in his career, hitting three home runs and posting a .893 OPS in 10 games in Boston, but he isn't Schwarber.

Second, there's reason to believe Alonso might add more balance to a left-handed-heavy lineup. He might hit right-handed, but he, as is the case with Schwarber, has reverse splits, meaning he hits righties better than lefties. Just look at 2025 as an example.

Player

2025 wRC+ vs. LHP

2025 wRC+ vs. RHP

Pete Alonso

102

157

Kyle Schwarber

162

146

Alonso being right-handed means less than one might think, especially when Schwarber is the better hitter.

Kyle Schwarber is simply a better hitter than Pete Alonso

Alonso is a star hitter. He's hit at least 34 home runs and driven in at least 88 runs in each of his six full MLB seasons (excluding the shortened 2020 season). Schwarber is just a tier above right now. Let's compare their 2025 numbers.

  • Kyle Schwarber: .240/.365/.563, 56 HR, 132 RBI, 197 Ks, 152 wRC+
  • Pete Alonso: .272/.347/.524, 38 HR, 126 RBI, 162 Ks, 141 wRC+

Alonso hit for a higher average than Schwarber in 2025 and didn't strike out as much, but Alonso making more contact didn't lead to him getting on base more than Schwarber or hitting for more power either. I know I'd rather the increase of home runs and walks Schwarber would provide over the additional singles Alonso would provide.

They're both great, but wouldn't you rather have the better hitter?

Pete Alonso advantages don't outweigh Kyle Schwarber advantages

Alonso being right-handed is relatively meaningless, but not having compensation attached does matter, as does the fact that Alonso can play the field. Alonso is not a good defender, but he provides a whole lot more value there than Schwarber would.

Do these things really outweigh the fact that Schwarber is a better hitter than Alonso? It's hard to make that argument, especially when Schwarber is almost certainly going to sign for less total money than Alonso, a player who is two years younger, will.

The 2025 offseason is a crucial one for the Red Sox. Sure, they were able to get back to the playoffs this season, but were quickly eliminated by the New York Yankees, of all teams, in the Wild Card Series. Upgrades are needed to get this team over the hump, and there's no better offensive upgrade available than Schwarber. It's imperative that they don't trick themselves into signing the lesser player just because he bats right-handed or costs a draft pick. This is their window. Get Schwarber if you have the chance.

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