Resetting the AL West: Are the Mariners and Astros in trouble already?

We thought we knew who the laughingstock of the American League was in April: my Boston Red Sox. But then the Seattle Mariners, trident in hand, came crashing through the wall like the Kool-Aid Man and said “oh yeah, it’s our time to embarrass ourselves". 

The Houston Astros, not super far behind in the embarrassing-themselves department, at least feasted on the Red Sox for three games before dropping below .500 as well. The funniest part, though, is that the Astros are in second in the AL West despite their record. In fact, there are only four teams in the American League with a winning record. What a time to be alive. What a time to be coming off your best season since the 2001, eh Seattle?

All of which sets up an early-season Anxiety Bowl this weekend, when Houston heads to the Pacific Northwest for a three-game set with their long-time rival. One team is going to exit feeling like they've gotten things back on track. The other is going to spiral further into existential despair. But what are we to make of these two ostensible contenders so far?

The Mariners and Astros have opposite problems

We use statistics to tell a story, and the best stories are simple and elegant. The Mariners’ and Astros’ issues may not be pretty, but they can be understood with the two simplest stats we have in baseball: batting average and earned run average. The Mariners boast the third-best in team ERA, the Astros are second-worst. The Astros are second-best in team batting average, the Mariners are dead last. A tidy presentation, if I do say so myself.

One of those situations is reasonably explainable. Houston’s pitching situation is legitimately in crisis mode, having lost ace Hunter Brown and starter Cristian Javier to injury already after saying goodbye to the once-elite Framber Valdez this offseason. Their bats are doing just fine, though, and having Yordan Alvarez back healthy and slugging for real is going to work wonders for your baseball team. 

The Mariners, however, have the exact opposite problem, though they could never have expected this. Their rotation is straight-up stacked when healthy; George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, that works. And their batting order is also stacked when healthy … which it is, save for Victor Robles. Yet their hitters are collectively batting a positively appalling .184. That is, as we say in academic circles, not going to cut it.

The Mariners' poor hitting feels like a statistical anomaly

The Mariners’ offensive struggle bus comes down to their stars failing to drive said bus: Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh are both batting .143 (exactly 7-for-49, that’s kinda weird), and Josh Naylor is barely scraping triple digits at .104. If that’s what you got, frankly, you got nothing. Baseball can be funny like that, when the executive takeaway is “uh … eventually you have to actually hit.”

If we want to get slightly more advanced, Seattle is perhaps getting a bit unlucky — their expected batting average (xBA) is a not-exactly-sizzling .213, but it's better than the .184 they’re actually putting out there. However, bad luck is almost required to hit that poorly. And they aren’t doing themselves any favors; they are dead last in weighted on-base (wOBA) and fourth-to-last in expected weighted on-base (xwOBA), which means they aren’t putting quality balls in play or producing very competitive at-bats. It’s just bad all around.

The Astros and the Mariners start a series against one another this weekend, which is a classic case of a stoppable force meeting a moveable object. The Astros pitching staff is in shambles, and so Seattle should look to use this as an opportunity to pick themselves up offensively. But it’s also a tough group of customers for their elite pitchers to handle, which could neutralize each side’s advantage depending on who dominates whom. In short, it’s a really good matchup that I'm sure nobody will overreact to.

The Mariners are probably supremely annoyed at how last year ended and feel like this is their year for sure this time. The Astors are probably also supremely annoyed at how last year ended (or … how it never really got going, as they ultimately missed the playoffs) and feel like they are way better than that. It’s the hot new come-up versus the institution, the old guys trying for one last ride next to the barnstorming young guns. I don’t actually know if that metaphor holds up to everyone’s actual ages, but it feels correct spiritually.

The AL West is shaping up to be a fascinating division

Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers are sitting here reading my article saying “bro, why aren’t you talking about me I’m in first place?”, while the Angels and Athletics are saying “we’ve had solid starts to the year, what’s up with you?” All I’m saying is that the Mariners and Astros are this division's most interesting tension, not that the Rangers can’t accomplish anything. I was lower on Texas coming into the season, but some projectors, such as FanGraphs, were quite bullish. 

Updated AL West Power Rankings after two weeks of games:

1. Seattle Mariners
2. Houston Astros
3. Texas Rangers
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Athletics 

At least this division is interesting. Coming into the season, I half expected Seattle to just walk away with it. That, at least for now, is really not happening. And while there will be many more Astros vs. Mariners games this season, this first one feels like it might hit kinda hard.