Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- A veteran All-Star is struggling to maintain his usual production at the plate and on the bases this season.
- The team's investment in his long-term contract now raises questions about positional flexibility and aging curves.
- The next few months will test whether his skill set can evolve to keep delivering at a star level.
Welcome back to "Oliver Fox tells you why supposedly good MLB player is underperforming by throwing his Statcast percentiles at you and discussing why his swing speed and xwOBA means that he" [Producer: we’re not doing that] — Oh, we’re not doing that? [Nope. Cut funding] What do you mean we lost the funding? It’s not like Baseball Savant costs anyth — [Just talk about Trea Turner like a normal person] Sigh. Fine.
Trea Turner is not having a good season, though it hasn’t lately come at the expense of the Philadelphia Phillies, who have ridden shnasty pitching, Brandon Marsh currently claiming the batting title and Kyle Schwarber leading MLB in home runs all the way back toward not-quite-.500. But for all the good vibes of late, Turner hasn’t gotten in on the party, not really hitting and not really getting on base either. And getting on base is what they need him to do, given his high spot in the order and his ability to steal bags.
But rather than just roll out the same playbook, where I tell you that his advanced hitting metrics aren’t that bad and he’s still one of the best natural base-runners in baseball and also he’s had starts like this before and bounced back, let’s roll in the heavy guns and talk about what Turner will be in the future — and why the Phillies should maybe be concerned with his role on the team given his age and the gobsmackingly long time left on his contract. What even is a late-30s Trea Turner?
Trea Turner is not a good defensive shortstop. Should the Phillies consider moving him?
Turner has basically never been a good defensive shortstop, though 2025 was his best defensive year in Philadelphia by a lot. This year he has not been very good, though he’s basically been neutral-to-bad since 2020. The Los Angeles Dodgers tried putting him at second base for a bit, which actually improved his defensive numbers, so I wonder if the Phillies may try that eventually. Though that’s too small a sample to really start the “Trea Turner is a natural second baseman” agenda.
In any case, the Phillies do not care about the money, but it’s an interesting question as to whether they really want to invest major cash in another long-term shortstop when Turner will be making $27 million until he’s 40. I will tell you for free that he will not be their shortstop when he’s 40, but will the Phillies consider moving him sooner rather than later? I could see him in the outfield and having a great time.
When researching for this piece, I came across an interesting community forum post on FanGraphs from 2014 by Paul (just Paul), laying out the ages at which MLB shortstops typically peak and decline. I did some digging on my own, and other than a few exceptions there aren’t a whole lot of 33-and-older shortstops doing their best work over the course of baseball history. Just ask Boston how they’re feeling about 33-year-old Trevor Story right now. Oh wait, I’m from Boston, so you can just ask me: We are not feeling great.
Trea Turner isn't getting any younger, so can he adapt his game into his mid-30s?
Turner will be 33 in one month, and he certainly isn’t a DH. He’s an old-school contact hitter with passable power, but he works best when he can use his speed on the base paths. But he’s also weirdly been super walk-averse in his career, never walking more than seven percent of the time since 2020. He has always had elite on-base percentages, but also would hit like .330 like it was nothing. Which leads me to my final point: Is Trea Turner yesterday’s star?
He’s been a great player, and the Phillies will probably employ Turner for a long time at some position or another. He’s a smart player with tools that will always be playable, and I do not think this slump is permanent. But he also … kinda has the tendencies of, like, shortstop Ichiro Suzuki (a comparison a former Phillies GM once employed): a first-ballot Hall of Famer, to be sure, but also one that was way more walk-avoidant than would be allowed in today’s game and an all-time sicko of a hitter. Turner plays to hit, and hit for average, but we saw Luis Arraez have literally no market after batting like .330 every year while never walking. You have to hit absurdly often to still generate star-level value despite never walking and not being a good defender.
Turner could pop over to right field in a year or two and might see a rejuvenated offensive game. His foot speed will last awhile, and so I think some positive version of Turner could exist for the Phillies into the future. And while this may not be a bad thing, I’m not sure this version is going to work for much longer.
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