The San Francisco Giants inked Justin Verlander to a one-year, $15 million contract in free agency. It felt like a low-risk gamble — and it was. It's a short-term deal, so there's no baggage after this season. And Verlander, for all the noise around last season, is a three-time Cy Young winner, a nine-time All-Star and a former MVP. It was a reasonable swing for Buster Posey and the Giants front office. But not every swing connects.
While the swing was reasonable, the odds of contact weren't very high. Verlander finished his 2024 campaign with the Houston Astros watching from the dugout, as he was not part of the postseason rotation. In 17 regular season starts, interrupted by neck problems, Verlander posted a ghastly 5.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The five-time MLB strikeouts leader only managed 74 Ks in 90.1 innings.
The numbers aren't much better this time around, even with relatively solid health (barring a minor pectoral injury a couple months ago). Verlander has made 14 starts for the Giants, posting a 4.84 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, K'ing 60 in 70.2 innings.
At this point, it's fair to say Verlander is over the proverbial hill.
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Astros fans could have warned Giants that Justin Verlander was on the decline
This isn't the most pressing issue in San Francisco, but after suffering a seven-hit, six-run shellacking against the Athletics on the Fourth of July, it's clear that Verlander is no longer a dependable option for a Giants team that needs every win it can get in a competitive division.
Verlander probably isn't a candidate to be cut or demoted to the bullpen right now, but the Giants will eventually need to consider shelving the former ace. He has earned some grace, even some benefit of the doubt, but we are long past being able to trust the 20-year vet — especially as the stakes are amplified down the stretch of this season.
Whether it's an ambitious trade deadline play or a deeper consideration of internal options, the Giants need to start thinking about life beyond Verlander right now, not next winter. Odds are Verlander probably isn't in the postseason mix for the Giants either. His contract probably prevents a straight waiver, but San Francisco should at least explore the trade market. A few of the truly desperate pretenders might talk themselves into a cents-on-the-dollar Verlander trade. And good luck to them.
Whether he's on the roster past July 31 or not, however, the Giants should scour the league (and their own farm system) for upgrades. Long reliever Tristan Beck has a few MLB starts under his belt and could serve as a modest improvement over Verlander. San Francisco's No. 2 prospect, Carson Whisenhunt, is a former college star who commands a devastating changeup. He might be worth a gander for Posey and the Giants higher-ups.
However this situation is resolved, we should expect Verlander's role to slowly morph and fade as the season progresses. Maybe he does end up in the bullpen, for all we know. The Giants need to mix it up somehow, some way.