While MLB free agency rolls on, that's not the only recruitment going on this winter: Team USA is also in the midst of assembling its roster for the 2026 World Baseball Classic, set to get underway this coming March. (The tournament will run from March 5-17, with the big-league players involved taking a two-week break from spring training.)
The Americans have their work cut out for them if they want to capture their second-ever WBC title; reigning champion Japan will always be a load while Shohei Ohtani's in his prime, and the Dominican Republic boasts arguably the deepest roster in the world. But manager Mark DeRosa has been inspiring optimism of late, locking in big name after big name — highlighted by arguably the two best pitchers on Earth in Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes.
Projected Team USA rotation for 2026 World Baseball Classic
Back in 2023, the American rotation featured the likes of Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas, Kyle Freeland and a 41-year-old Adam Wainwright. It's safe to say that won't be the case this time around. Just look at the six starters who have committed to Team USA so far:
- Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
- Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
- Nolan McLean, New York Mets
- Clay Holmes, New York Mets
- Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs
Ryan showed legitimate ace upside in 2025, while McLean broke into the Mets' rotation in the second half and promptly started looking like a Cy Young candidate. Holmes and Boyd are veteran names who have pitched in big spots and can slot in as a starter or in relief.
But let's be real here: Skubal and Skenes are the headliners, the guys who will in all likelihood determine just how far Team USA goes in this tournament. They both took home Cy Young honors in 2025, in each case the question was less whether they would win but by just how much. If you're trying to find the best pitcher in baseball right now, the list starts and ends with these two.
But that begs the question: If you had to win one game, which of them would you pick? While that question was, until now, a tantalizing hypothetical, it's about to become all too real for DeRosa.
Paul Skenes vs. Tarik Skubal: Tale of the tape
Watch either of them pitch, and it can feel impossible to choose anyone else. So, to get some perspective, let's zoom out a bit with a tale of the tape, examining some of their topline numbers since Skenes broke into the Majors in 2024.
Tarik Skubal | Paul Skenes | |
|---|---|---|
Starts | 62 | 55 |
Innings | 387.1 | 320.2 |
Record | 31-10 | 21-13 |
ERA | 2.30 | 1.96 |
ERA+ | 180 | 215 |
FIP | 2.47 | 2.40 |
WHIP | 0.906 | 0.948 |
K% | 31.2 | 31 |
BB% | 4.5 | 5.9 |
Cy Young Awards | 2 | 1 |
ERA titles | 2 | 1 |
When it comes to run prevention, no one's been better than Skenes over the last two seasons; his 1.96 ERA leads all qualifying pitchers. But this is hardly an open and shut case: Skubal has taken on a significantly larger workload (through no fault of Skenes' own, mind you; the Pirates just haven't wanted to push their face of the franchise in meaningless games), and he's limited baserunners more effectively while posting better strikeout and walk rates.
What does that all mean when it comes to the decision DeRosa and Team USA will face come March? It's impossible to go wrong when choosing between the two best pitchers alive, but I do think there's a slightly better choice.
Which ace should start Team USA's WBC opener?
If it were up to me, I'd hand the ball to Skubal. The fact that he's left-handed helps, of course; Skenes is hardly vulnerable against lefties — he's not really vulnerable against anyone — but it's another factor to consider when faced with some of the best left-handed hitters in the world. Plus, Skubal's lights-out changeup allow him to give lefties tough looks while also having an out pitch against righties.
Beyond that, though, Skubal's exceptional command and durability give him the narrowest of edges in my eyes. He misses bats at a slightly higher rate than Skenes does, and he throws strikes as well as anyone in baseball. And while Skenes has had his workload understandably managed, Skubal is no stranger to pitching into the seventh and eighth innings or high-leverage games.
Of course, you could easily make the argument for Skenes given his sparkling results so far and his stupidly deep arsenal. Running him out as your No. 2 gives the Americans an edge that no team in the tournament can match. But Skubal has shouldered the load in spots like this before.