The St. Louis Cardinals have put together back-to-back losses out of the All-Star break, signaling to John Mozeliak and the front office that this roster might not be ready for a postseason push. Saturday's 10-1 shellacking from the Arizona Diamondbacks was especially worrisome because of who was on the mound.
St. Louis inked Sonny Gray to a hefty three-year, $75 million contract after he finished runner-up in the AL Cy Young race in 2023. Last season was a mild disappointment, but Gray was still far and away the most dependable arm in the Cards rotation. This season has challenged that status a bit. The St. Louis rotation is generally a mess and a half, but Gray is starting to look his age. He was knocked around big time on Saturday.
The D'Backs pummeled Gray to the tune of 11 hits and eight earned runs in only 3.1 innings pitched. Arizona has a few major bats, but the Diamondbacks are struggling to keep their heads above water in an injury-plagued campaign. The Cards are healthier and, in theory, better positioned for a postseason push. And yet, Arizona looks like the meaningfully better team right now.
Mozeliak and the front office should take notes.
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Sonny Gray's regression proves Cardinals need to throw in the towel on 2025
The Cardinals are in a tricky spot with the trade deadline less than two weeks away on July 31. This team is 51-48 with an elite defense and a lot of veterans in the lineup. On the surface, an expensive, older team with a winning record should probably lean into a finite window and go all-in at the deadline. Mozeliak isn't exactly known for his aggressiveness at this stage of his career, but he's known for focusing on the here and now. His successor, Chaim Bloom, tends to assume the longest view in the room, sometimes to a fault.
How those two can or can't work in concert will in all likelihood determine the direction of the next 11 days in St. Louis. Cardinals fans have been begging for a reset and a retool for years now. This iteration of the Cards roster just does not have what it takes to meaningfully compete in the National League, especially not with the Dodgers and the Cubs expected to load up even further at the deadline.
No single trade the Cardinals can make will change that. The depth of talent just isn't there, starting in the rotation. Gray has a 4.04 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 20 starts. He's still a perfectly solid rotation arm, but Gray's days as a consistent shutout ace are kaput. He has his share of highs this season, including a complete game shutout against Cleveland in late June, but Cy Young candidates are consistent. Gray, now 35, no longer feels capable of stringing together weeks of elite output.
Cardinals should sell as much pitching as they can at the deadline — starting with Sonny Gray
St. Louis has to understand that it's impossible to win in October with a feeble rotation, especially with a fairly uninspiring offense. The Cards currently rank 13th in runs scored and 16th in OPS (.714) this season. That is not enough to sustain a rotation with five ERA marks of 4.00-plus.
Of the Cardinals' pitchers, only 25-year-old Matthew Liberatore feels like a meaningful piece of the long-term puzzle. Everyone else is expendable with varying degrees of urgency. Gray probably won't drum up much interest at the deadline given the scale of his contract and his relative struggles this season, but he's a name brand and the Cardinals need to push that aggressively to needy contenders.
Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde have been varying levels of disastrous for the Cardinals and neither will field much value at the deadline on expiring contracts, but anything at all would be enough for St. Louis to move on and explore alternative options, whether it's recently signed KBO star Aaron Wilkerson or younger options in the farm system.