Team USA clinching scenarios and tiebreakers: Every way Americans can advance in WBC

Team USA got a humbling at the World Baseball Classic on Tuesday night. Italy shelled the Americans, racking up five runs on home runs by the end of the fourth inning. They trailed 8-0 going into the sixth. While Pete Crow-Armstrong hit two homers as the U.S. tried to claw back, it was too little two late. The game ended 8-6.

This U.S. Dream Team had been pretty much as advertised en route to a 3-0 start in pool play. Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal both shoved, and the offense was averaging nearly 10 runs per game. But for as dominant as Mark DeRosa's team had been, the loss to Italy was a significant setback. Team USA still hasn't accomplished anything yet — not even a spot in the knockout round.

Tuesday's defeat made that goal much more difficult. Here's everything to know about the clinching scenarios for Team USA and what they need to advance out of Pool B.

World Baseball Classic: Every way Team USA can clinch a spot in the knockout stage

The WBC is divided into two stages. The first is pool play: The 20-team field is divided into five pools of four teams each, with the top two finishers in each pool advancing to the knockout stage. Here's how the Pool B standings look entering play on Wednesday, March 11, and what the U.S. needs to sew up its spot:

It would have been simple for Team USA if they had beaten Italy. They would have clinched first place in the pool. Even losing to Italy didn't have to put the Americans in danger. The way they lost is the issue.

Team USA clinches first place in Pool B IF:

• Italy beats Mexico while allowing more than seven runs
• Mexico beats Italy while allowing 10 or more runs

Team USA clinches second place in Pool B IF:

• Italy beats Mexico
• Mexico beats Italy while scoring more than five or more runs

Team USA is eliminated IF:

• Mexico beats Italy while scoring four runs or fewer

The loss to Italy makes it unlikely for the U.S. to top the group but they can advance if Italy beats Mexico, dropping the rival to the south to 2-2.

Americans should be rooting hard for Italy to beat Mexico, because Mexico beating Italy likely triggers a doomsday scenario. All three teams would be tied at 3-1. Tiebreakers are not Team USA's friend right now.

In that scenario, the head-to-head tiebreaker wouldn't resolve things, with all three going 1-1 against the other two. From there, things get more complicated than you might expect: Rather than, say, run differential, the second tiebreaker is determined by dividing runs allowed by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the tied teams, with the team with the lowest quotient advancing. As an example: The U.S. allowed 17 runs while recording a combined 54 outs against Mexico and Italy, so its quotient currently stands at .31; if that number winds up being the lowest of the three teams, the Americans would win the pool and advance to the quarterfinals. If it's the highest, they're out.

• First tiebreaker: Head-to-head record
• Second tiebreaker: Fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the tied teams
• Third tiebreaker: Fewest earned runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the tied teams
• Fourth tiebreaker: Batting average in games between the tied teams
• Fifth tiebreaker: WBC officials will draw lots to determine final positioning (yes, seriously)

Is it likely that the Americans get left out in the cold? A low-scoring loss to Italy would have left the U.S. in a good spot. Allowing eight runs, though, that's a huge problem. That runs allowed tiebreaker favors Italy and Mexico in the extreme. Team USA has now allowed 17 runs. The Italians have allowed 10, while the Mexicans have allowed seven. So it could come down to how many runs either team allowed relative to the defensive outs logged.

The U.S. can move on only if Italy wins or loses while allowing more than five runs. Theoretically, they can also move on in a scenario where Mexico beats Italy 11-10 or any higher score, putting both Italy and Mexico behind Team USA in runs allowed. Extra innings would throw all these calculations into disarray.

Who's advanced, who's been eliminated at the WBC entering play on Wednesday, March 11

While the U.S. has yet to punch its ticket to the quarterfinals, several other teams already have. Japan finished Pool C play at 4-0, while the Dominican Republic and Venezuela have both already advanced after 3-0 starts and will play for the Pool D title in a titanic clash on Wednesday. Here's the full update on where things stand entering play on Wednesday, March 11.

Pool A

• Advanced: Puerto Rico (3-1; can clinch first place with with a Canada loss to Cuba)
• Eliminated: Colombia (1-3), Panama (1-3)
• Still alive: Canada (1-1), Cuba (2-1)

Pool B

• Advanced: N/A
• Eliminated: Great Britain (1-3), Brazil (0-4)
• Still alive: USA (3-1), Italy (3-0), Mexico (2-1)

Pool C

• Advanced: Japan (4-0; clinched first place), Korea (2-2, clinched second place via tiebreaker)
• Eliminated: Australia (2-2), Chinese Taipei (2-2), Czechia (0-4)

Pool D

• Advanced: Dominican Republic (3-0, can clinch first place with win over Venezuela on Wednesday), Venezuela (3-0, can clinch first place with win over Dominican Republic on Wednesday)
• Eliminated: Israel (2-2), Netherlands (1-3), Nicaragua (0-4)