Team USA stayed perfect at the World Baseball Classic on Monday night, getting another homer (and some stellar work in the field) from Aaron Judge and a three-run blast from Red Sox phenom Roman Anthony to outlast Mexico, 5-3 — the first win over their border rivals at the WBC since the inaugural competition in 2006.
This U.S. Dream Team has been pretty much as advertised en route to a 3-0 start in pool play. Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal both shoved, and the offense is averaging nearly 10 runs per game. But for as dominant as Mark DeRosa's team has been so far, they still haven't accomplished anything yet — not even a spot in the knockout round. Ahead of a crucial showdown with Italy on Tuesday night in Houston (9 p.m. ET, FS1), here's everything to know about the clinching scenarios for Team USA and what they need to do to advance out of Pool B.
World Baseball Classic: Every way Team USA can clinch a spot in the knockout stage
The WBC is divided into two stages. The first is pool play: The 20-team field is divided into five pools of four teams each, with the top two finishers in each pool advancing to the knockout stage. Here's how the Pool B standings look entering play on Tuesday, March 10, and what the U.S. needs to sew up its spot:
Team | Wins | Losses | Runs for | Runs against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
United States | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 |
Italy | 2 | 0 | 15 | 4 |
Mexico | 2 | 1 | 27 | 7 |
Great Britain (E) | 1 | 3 | 15 | 25 |
Brazil (E) | 0 | 4 | 6 | 47 |
The Americans are currently in control of things, and can clinch the pool — and a spot in the quarterfinals later this week — with a win over Italy on Tuesday night. Even if Team USA gets upset by the Italians, an Italy win over Mexico on Wednesday would drop Mexico to 2-2 and guarantee the U.S. a second-place finish.
Team USA clinches first place in Pool B IF:
- U.S. beats Italy
Team USA clinches second place in Pool B IF:
- U.S. loses to Italy
- Italy beats Mexico
But despite winning each of its first three games, the U.S. could still fail to advance out of pool play at all. Because Team USA isn't the only undefeated team left in the pool, there remains a chance — if Italy upsets the Americans on Tuesday night, and then Mexico beats Italy on Wednesday night — that three teams wind up tied atop the standings at 3-1.
In that scenario, the head-to-head tiebreaker wouldn't resolve things, with all three going 1-1 against the other two. From there, things get more complicated than you might expect: Rather than, say, run differential, the second tiebreaker is determined by dividing runs allowed by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the tied teams, with the team with the lowest quotient advancing. As an example: The U.S. allowed three runs while recording 27 outs against Mexico, so its quotient currently stands at .11; if that number winds up being the lowest of the three teams, the Americans would win the pool and advance to the quarterfinals.
Is it likely that the Americans get left out in the cold? Definitely not: The U.S. will be heavy favorites in Tuesday's game against Italy, which will send MLB journeyman Michael Lorenzen to the mound against young Mets star Nolan McLean. That said, stranger things have happened, and Team USA has allowed more runs than either Italy or Mexico so far. Don't mess around here.
Who's advanced, who's been eliminated at the WBC entering play on Tuesday, March 10
While the U.S. has yet to punch its ticket to the quarterfinals, several other teams already have. Japan finished Pool C play at 4-0, while the Dominican Republic and Venezuela have both already advanced after 3-0 starts and will play for the Pool D title in a titanic clash on Wednesday. Here's the full update on where things stand entering play on Tuesday, March 10.
Pool A
- Advanced: Puerto Rico (3-0; can clinch first place with win over Canada on Tuesday)
- Eliminated: Colombia (1-3), Panama (1-3)
- Still alive: Canada (1-1), Cuba (2-1)
Pool B
- Advanced: N/A
- Eliminated: Great Britain (1-3), Brazil (0-4)
- Still alive: USA (3-1), Italy (2-0), Mexico (2-1)
Pool C
- Advanced: Japan (4-0; clinched first place), Korea (2-2, clinched second place via tiebreaker)
- Eliminated: Australia (2-2), Chinese Taipei (2-2), Czechia (0-4)
Pool D
- Advanced: Dominican Republic (3-0, can clinch first place with win over Venezuela on Wednesday), Venezuela (3-0, can clinch first place with win over Dominican Republic on Wednesday)
- Eliminated: Israel (1-2), Netherlands (1-2), Nicaragua (0-4)