While the Detroit Tigers received a brief reprieve from their end-of-season collapse thanks to a Game 1 win behind the magical arm of Tarik Skubal, that happiness lasted just 24 hours. The Tigers and Guardians – two teams that know each other very well at this point in the season – had to take the field again in Game 2. Suddenly, despite evidence to the contrary with some clutch play in Game 1, the September Tigers were back.
Yes, I know it's technically Oct. 1, but when a team blows a 15.5-game division lead in the second half, the month doesn't matter. There is no such thing as a fresh slate until the on-field product improves, and for the Tigers, there's been far too much inconsistency to consider this team a contender.
Wednesday's game featured a clutch hit from Javy Baez, but also some shoddy baserunning from Zach McKinstry. Casey Mize lasted just under five innings. The Tigers left 15 runners on base and, in the end, it turns out they needed a few of those to cross home plate. But most disappointing of all was AJ Hinch, a manager who ought to know better.
Hinch is up for an extension at the end of the season and will likely receive one. If the Tigers do lose Game 3, Hinch will not be the only Tiger to blame. He is still one of the best managers in baseball, but his propensity to overthink can get him into trouble.
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3. AJ Hinch kept the same lineup from Game 1
The Tigers squeaked out a 2-1 win in Game 1 behind a legendary start from Skubal. The likely AL Cy Young award winner struck out 14 Guardians hitters. He was as close to perfect as he could be at Progressive Field. Even still, the Tigers only won by a run because they were 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position. The Tigers out-hit the Guardians and had plenty of chances to extend their lead, only to fall short time and time again. It's a familiar narrative that would've drawn more criticism had the Tigers ruined Skubal's start.
Hinch evidently saw something in Tuesday's offensive effort that made him want to run it back for Game 2. I cannot remotely guess what that is, as the Tigers were dreadful offensively on Tuesday and, unsurprisingly, that carried over into Wednesday. In fact, the best hitter the Tigers have right now is arguably Javier Baez, who Hinch has hitting ninth.
For a manager who loves to overthink, this was a rare case of not doing enough. 14 runners left on base later, and the Tigers sure wish they had done some things differently offensively. They may not get another chance.
2. The Tigers bullpen is taxed
It's all hands on deck for the Tigers bullpen in Game 3. Detroit will rely heavily on Jack Flaherty, who they signed to a long-term contract this past winter. Flaherty always has the potential to shut down an opposing lineup, but given his numbers this season (4.64 ERA and a 2-5 record against Cleveland career), the odds aren't in Detroit's favor. And because it's a winner-take-all Game 3, Flaherty will have a short leash.
That makes Hinch's decision-making in Game 2 all the more egregious. First, Hinch removed starting pitcher Casey Mize after a leadoff walk in the fifth inning. While that walk wasn't an encouraging sign, it also didn't mean he was due to give up a two-run bomb to the next batter. Had Mize been able to make it through the inning, for example, Hinch could've saved some of his high-leverage relief pitchers for Game 3.
Add in Hinch's decision to put in Troy Melton for his postseason debut – a tough situation for the 24-year-old given it was the eighth inning – and you have a bullpen management disasterclass from one of the best managers in baseball. Melton gave up four runs in 0.1 innings pitched, which means his career playoff ERA is...108.00. Yikes.
1. Why pinch hit for Riley Greene?
The most confusing decision from Hinch, and one that speaks volumes about the Tigers roster construction flaws, was his choice to pinch hit for Detroit's best overall hitter in Riley Greene. Greene has a .618 OPS against left-handed hitters, so the choice does make some sense statistically. However, considering it wasn't Greene's final at-bat of the game, Hinch sacrificed a lot by taking his 30-plus home run power out of the game for good. Greene's replacement, Jahmai Jones, has far more success against lefties but struck out with runners on the corners in the All-Star's place.
Point blank: We can file this one under over-managing. Yes, the statistics may back up hitting Jones in this position over Greene. But wouldn't Hinch rather live and die by his best players? Greene has some clear holes in his swing that he needs to work on this winter. Taking the bat out of his hands in Game 2 was a gamble, and it backfired.