Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Three Astros players have seen their trade value spike dramatically despite the team's poor season.
- FanGraphs gives Houston only a 10.7 percent chance at the playoffs, making the trade deadline a pivotal moment.
- The decision to trade any of these players could define the franchise's rebuild and its immediate future.
The Astros are not having a good season. But now that we’re almost at the 50-game mark, “not having a good season” will turn into “grow up and do something about it” real quick.
FanGraphs currently has the Astros sitting at a 10.7 percent chance to make the playoffs, with plenty of potential for things to go even further south than they already have. In the two-plus months until the trade deadline on Aug. 3, there will be some tough questions in Space City. Is Jeremy Peña the shortstop of the future? Would a team be willing to trade for closer Josh Hader or Hunter Brown despite their injuries, and should the Astros even want to do that themselves? These are all worthwhile questions, but I’m sticking to the actually likely ones given we take rebuilding seriously around here. No tomfoolery in the rebuild streets.
1. Yordan Alvarez
One stat to hang your hat on: Alvarez leads the Majors by a mile with a .493 xwOBA
Should the Astros trade him?: Eh … probably not
Now kids, what do we care about when evaluating Major League hitters? (Kids: “quality contact!”) That’s right! And who has by far the highest xwOBA in MLB so far, a metric that measures the quality of a hitter’s contact independent of the play’s outcome? (Kids: “Yordan Alvarez!”) Right again! Juice boxes for everyone!
Alvarez is a machine of elite contact, and is basically everything a sabermatrician would want in a designated hitter: He hits the ball hard, to the right parts of the field, walks a lot and doesn’t strike out a lot. He’s a legitimate MVP candidate, but if Houston can’t get off this road to nowhere, trading Alvarez makes a ton of sense.
He has an incredibly team-friendly contract that would net a massive haul if the Astros actually dealt him, which means the question is simple: If Houston thinks this is just a blip and they can contend next year, don’t trade him. If they can’t, though, as some Astros fans are beginning to think, this would give a jolt of electricity to any prospective rebuild. Like a serious jolt. It would be jolt-tastic.
That said, offloading 28-year-old MVP candidates with multiple years of team control remaining (Alvarez won't be a free agent until after the 2028 season) isn’t great business, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Houston can’t bring themselves to do it. I wouldn’t be able to bring myself to do it if I were a baseball team. I’m … not a baseball team, but if I were.
2. Christian Walker
One stat to hang your hat on: His 19.7 strikeout rate is down eight whole percentage points from last year
Should the Astros trade him?: Yes
The 35-year-old first baseman is hitting home runs, getting on base and honestly just doing some good work out there. Walker has had a nice resurgence this season after a pretty lukewarm 2025 which saw his power drop precipitously. He’s already at double-digit homers, which is the kind of old-school power first-baseman numbers that a contending team could get behind.
His contract is probably a bit larger than some teams would like it to be, but said contract only lasts through 2027 and he’s a no-brainer trade candidate for a lineup that could really use his skillset. When answering the question “which Astros have raised their trade value the most?,” Walker is the poster child.
3. Bryan Abreu
One stat to hang your hat on: Was top six in Whiff% and K% … in 2025
Should the Astros trade him?: Yes … but the return won’t be what they hoped
Look, I wanted to include a pitcher on the list, and while I don’t necessarily think Abreu has “raised his trade value” all that much this year — no Astros pitcher has — I think a team could talk themselves into him as a high-upside reliever given his track record. He hasn’t exactly covered himself in glory this season, but someone will convince themselves they can revive 2025 Abreu. He’s a free agent after this year, so the return won’t be much, but it makes him an obvious trade piece.
I don’t think Abreu is meant to be the closer Houston is asking him to be in lieu of the injured Hader, and he has struggled with consistency and avoiding loud contact. Such is the Bryan Abreu experience — he has always been an elite strikeout pitcher with baller swing-and-miss numbers, but he also surrenders way too many hard hits. Even so, there’s no way someone won’t talk themselves into a one-year bullpen rental for a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency closer in Abreu.
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