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These 4 Cubs could hold them back from beating the Dodgers when it counts

Chicago is sure looking like legitimate World Series contenders right now. But when you have to get through the two-time defending champs, there's no margin for error.
Chicago Cubs v. Texas Rangers
Chicago Cubs v. Texas Rangers | Courtney Kramer/GettyImages

Key Points

Bullet point summary by AI

  • The Chicago Cubs have surged to the top of the NL Central with a 10-game winning streak and a +50 run differential.
  • Their path to the World Series will require beating the two-time reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers in a seven-game series.
  • Four key players could become weak links for Chicago when October pressure arrives against L.A.'s deep lineup.

Owners of a recent 10-game winning streak — their second double-digit streak already this season — that has rocketed them to the top of the NL Central, the Chicago Cubs sure have the look of a legitimate World Series contender right now. The offense has shaken off a slow start to become the wagon we all expected when the season began, while the pitching staff has been one of the unsung stories of the season so far, not just surviving but thriving despite a rash of injuries. Chicago entered play on Sunday at 27-13 with a +50 run differential, a rock-solid resume any way you slice it.

And yet, the harsh reality for any team unfortunate enough to call the National League home right now is that "rock-solid" simply isn't where the bar is set. To be the champs, you gotta beat the champs, and to get to the World Series, the Cubs are going to have to go through the two-time reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers — a team with money and talent beyond compare.

To beat L.A. in a seven-game series, there can be no weak links. And unfortunately for the Cubs, these four players could get in the way of doing what many other teams have failed to do in the past couple of years when it really counts.

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong

After a nightmare start in which all of Chicago was wondering whether he'd ever snap out of it, PCA has begun to look more like the MVP candidate we saw in the first half of last season, with an .861 OPS so far in May. And you know his world-class defense in center field will play at any team of year, too.

So why am I leading off with him here? Two words: plate discipline. It's been the bugaboo for PCA for his entire career, and it leaves him prone to some nasty cold spells in addition to the hot streaks. He was bound to warm up eventually, but until he fixes his approach, he'll always be at risk of falling into a bushel of strikeouts at the worst possible time.

Pete Crow-Armstrong

MLB average

Swing rate

55.6

47.3

Chase rate

42.4

28.5

Whiff rate

27.3

25.0

We saw this last October, when he tallied just five hits (all singles) in 29 plate appearances. And you better believe that, in a series in which you're only scouting one opponent, the Dodgers will be ready to pick at his weaknesses. Will he be able to adjust?

RHP Edward Cabrera

Edward Cabrera
New York Mets v Chicago Cubs | Michael Reaves/GettyImages

Cabrera has been largely as advertised in his first year in Chicago, pitching to a 3.88 ERA as one of the lone rocks in a beleaguered rotation. The stuff is still explosive, the command gains from last year have stuck and, just as importantly, he's stayed healthy [knocks on all available wood].

Given the makeup of the Cubs staff right now, though, he projects to start Game 2 of any potential postseason series. And that might be a bit much for who he is as a pitcher — especially when you consider how badly the Dodgers have knocked him around in his career.

Career numbers vs. Dodgers

2026 numbers

ERA

11.00

3.88

K rate

20.2

22.4

BB rate

18.1

7.8

That includes a clunker last April when he was still with Miami. It's clear that this Los Angeles lineup sees the ball pretty well out of his hand, and that's a scary thought when it comes time for October. No matter how much the Cubs hit, they're going to need to be able to get outs if they want to go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers. Can they do that if Cabrera is facing off against someone like Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Blake Snell?

OF Seiya Suzuki

Seiya Suzuki
Chicago Cubs v Texas Rangers | Ron Jenkins/GettyImages

Again, this is not a criticism of Suzuki as such. He's been a criminally underrated player from pretty much the moment he came over from Japan, and he's been awesome since returning from an early knee injury this year, with a .975 OPS that's been arguably the single biggest reason for Chicago's offensive turnaround.

That said, his numbers against the Dodgers in his career don't exactly inspire confidence: a .230/.313/.390 slash line with a K rate north of 30 percent (his mark this year is 21.7). It's not bad luck, either, as he's got a .313 BABIP over that sample. From here, it seems like L.A. has figured out a hole to exploit in his swing, plus plenty of power righty pitchers like Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow. If Suzuki isn't performing like a borderline-MVP candidate in the middle of this order, hanging with Los Angeles will be a tough ask.

RHP Jacob Webb

Jacob Webb
Arizona Diamondbacks v Chicago Cubs | Matt Dirksen/GettyImages

If you predicted that the Cubs would be in the top 10 in bullpen ERA despite Hunter Harvey, Porter Hodge, Caleb Thielbar and Daniel Palencia all missing time due to injury, please let me know what next week's lottery numbers will be. Chicago's bullpen has punched well above its weight, and deserves a ton of credit for it.

You'll forgive me if I'm still not buying in over the long haul, especially not when the pressure ratchets up in October. You could put Hoby Milner, Phil Maton or any other member of the Cubs' current late-game formula in here instead, but we'll focus on Webb, who has a 4.78 FIP underlying his sparkling 3.86 ERA. Chicago's relief unit is still a major question mark if they match up against the Dodgers.

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