Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Dave Dombrowski has a history of bold deadline moves, and a trade for Tarik Skubal could push the Phillies into playoff contention.
- The deal would address Philadelphia's only rotation weakness but require giving up three of their top prospects within a short rental window.
- Detroit would need to accept a major haul for their star pitcher, but the Tigers' playoff odds may make holding onto him even riskier than trading him now.
Even with a loss on Friday, the Philadelphia Phillies are just one game under .500 after a brutal start to their season. Sure, a NL East title almost certainly isn't in the cards, but a Wild Card berth certainly is with how they've played under interim manager Don Mattingly. Knowing that the playoffs are within reach, an all-in trade to get them there could be in order, and FanSided's Robert Murray teased the biggest all-in name there is, Tarik Skubal, as a fit.
"Dave Dombrowski loves swinging big for pitching when it comes to the deadline, so I could see that," Murray said on The Baseball Insiders podcast.
He's not wrong. While many of Dombrowski's big trades for pitching have come in the offseason, the deal that brought David Price to Detroit at the 2014 deadline nearly won the Tigers a World Series. Dombrowski could pull off something similar by trading for Skubal, a dominant left-hander currently on his former team.
Phillies would create best rotation in MLB by trading for Tarik Skubal
The Phillies' starting rotation is their biggest strength, but that doesn't mean it can't be improved upon. Adding Tarik Skubal to this staff would be a nightmarish outcome for the rest of the league.
Phillies Rotation Order | Pitcher |
|---|---|
1 | Tarik Skubal |
2 | Cristopher Sanchez |
3 | Zack Wheeler |
4 | Jesus Luzardo |
5 | Aaron Nola |
This is flat-out ridiculous. Skubal, when healthy, is the best pitcher in the world. Sanchez might be the best pitcher in the NL. Wheeler is arguably the best postseason pitcher of his generation. Luzardo is a borderline ace with ridiculous stuff. Whether it's Aaron Nola or Andrew Painter rounding out the rotation, the Phillies would have upside to dream on, and wouldn't have to rely on either to start a postseason game, barring injury.
With the best rotation in the game, you'll always have a shot, even with an offense that has a whole lot of question marks. An anonymous executive told Murray that Dombrowski would be one of two executives willing to make such a major trade like this, and what's crazy is that the Phillies have the pieces to make such a deal happen.
This Phillies-Tigers trade for Tarik Skubal would put Philadelphia in the World Series conversation
If agreed to, this would be one of the biggest deadline deals ever. The Phillies would be trading for Skubal, a pitcher fresh off a scary elbow injury who is set to hit free agency in a couple of months, but one who could conceivably win them a World Series. In exchange, they'd be giving up a haul to Detroit.
Aidan Miller, Gage Wood and Gabriel Rincones Jr. are three of the Phillies' best five or ten prospects. While that's obviously incredibly steep for a rental, Skubal is no ordinary rental. So, would the two sides do this deal? Let's dive in.
Would the Phillies make this trade?
Admittedly, this one will be tough for the Phillies to pull the trigger on. Yes, Skubal is great, and yes, acquiring him would drastically boost their odds, but is acquiring him for a couple of months worthwhile when this would be the cost?
Aidan Miller is their top prospect right now, and he ranks 19th on FanSided's Top 100 list. Giving up that caliber of prospect for a couple months of Skubal is a hard enough sell, but adding Gage Wood, a borderline Top 100 prospect, and Gabriel Rincones Jr., an outfielder who isn't far away from being MLB-ready, and it becomes a lot.
To get a player of Skubal's caliber, though, you're going to have to part with a lot. Assuming Skubal comes back from his injury looking like Skubal again, are the Phillies really going to let the Dodgers, Padres, or another World Series contender make this kind of deal? Odds are, if Dombrowski won't go all-in, another team will. This trade would hurt, especially with how unlikely it probably is that the Phillies would retain Skubal, but when will they have a better chance to win than right now, given the age of their core?
The Phillies would need to continue winning ahead of the deadline, and Skubal would need to show that he's back to his Cy Young form, but if both of those boxes are checked, it's hard to envision an aggressive executive like Dombrowski turning this down.
Verdict: Deal, if the Phillies are in the hunt and Skubal looks like Skubal
Would the Tigers make this trade?
The Tigers would be the harder team to convince here because the last thing they want to do is trade Skubal. They could've parted with Skubal this offseason and received a franchise-altering haul. Still, they opted against that, signing Framber Valdez and attempting to win right now, even with knowing this was almost certainly Skubal's last year in Detroit. It's hard to imagine they'd trade Skubal at this point unless they have absolutely no shot at making the postseason.
Given how they've been playing, though, the Tigers likely won't have a shot at a World Series title, and it'd be malpractice to hold onto Skubal, knowing he can be traded for significantly more than Detroit would get if he left as a free agent. Assuming they're willing sellers, it'd be hard to beat this Phillies deal.
Aidan Miller has some injury concerns, but when healthy, he's one of the best position player prospects in the game. A left side of the infield consisting of Miller and Kevin McGonigle has the potential to be one of the best in the sport for a very long time.
Adding on Gage Wood, a hard-throwing right-hander with a ton of upside, and Rincones, a right-handed hitting outfielder the Tigers could certainly use, and you have yourself quite the haul. The Tigers would be landing a top 20 prospect, a borderline top 100 prospect, and one of the top five or ten prospects in Philadelphia's system. That's a ton for a pending free agent coming off an injury.
If the Tigers are open to dealing Skubal and if the Phillies are set to offer a prospect of Miller's caliber (plus other very intriguing pieces), that feels like a yes.
Verdict: Deal, if the Tigers are actually willing to trade Skubal
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