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Tigers finally got a glimmer of hope to keep Tarik Skubal in free agency

Tarik Skubal could stay in Detroit — but it's a longshot.
Detroit Tigers v Cleveland Guardians
Detroit Tigers v Cleveland Guardians | Jason Miller/GettyImages

Key Points

Bullet point summary by AI

  • The Detroit Tigers front office faces a pivotal decision on handling an injured ace Tarik Skubal ahead of the trade deadline.
  • Keeping Skubal could yield a valuable draft pick or allow for a potential short-term reunion with opt-outs.
  • The next few weeks will test whether the team prioritizes immediate return or bets on rebuilding the player's trade value for later.

The Detroit Tigers were an afterthought in Tarik Skubal's looming free agency just a week ago. A lot can change over the course of a 162-game MLB season, however, and while there's still a good chance Detroit shops an injured Skubal at the trade deadline, there's a case that can and should be made that they ought to keep him around.

Skubal's injury is a severe one, despite what Scott Boras (and his circle of reporters) may claim. The typical recovery time for the type of surgery Skubal underwent is 2-3 months. Boras says Skubal underwent his own special scope (nicknamed the Skubal scope) that could cut his recovery time in half. Regardless of Boras's intentions, MLB teams are rightly weary of acquiring Skubal at a significant cost. That should play into the Tigers' hands.

Tigers could re-sign Tarik Skubal this offseason

Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers v Atlanta Braves | Brandon Sloter/GettyImages

Despite a looming lockout and Skubal's price tag, there is one scenario in which he stays with the Tigers in the short term. I noted on Sunday that Skubal was a likely trade candidate, especially if Scott Harris receives the kind of prospect package you'd expect in return for a player of his caliber. Word around the industry has long been that Harris will seek a Juan Soto-like return for Skubal, however unlikely that may be for an ace coming off an elbow procedure.

Assuming the Tigers can't find that sort of trade package in return — and assuming they won't take anything less, which appears to be their prerogative as of this writing — then Skubal will remain on the roster for Detroit's stretch run. It could be his last with the Tigers, and it could not be. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel noted one scenario where Skubal could stay with Detroit on a short-term deal with opt outs included.

"It's impossible to predict exactly how he'll appear on the mound after returning, what his market will look like at that point and whether the MLB labor situation will affect his negotiations. Sources agreed, though, that the chances that Skubal will go back to the Detroit Tigers on a shorter-term deal with opt-outs is much higher than it was before this injury," McDaniel wrote.

Should the Tigers keep Tarik Skubal at the MLB trade deadline?

Scott Harris
2024 Grapefruit League Spring Training Media Day | Mike Carlson/GettyImages

This is where it admittedly gets a little tricky for the Tigers front office. If they don't trade Skubal and he leaves in free agency, then they'll regret not getting something back in return. Of course, it's important to remember that the Tigers can at least give Skubal a qualifying offer this winter, so they'll receive some draft capital should he sign elsewhere. That's key to their list of possible outcomes. Let me explain.

If Detroit struggles to find a suitor for Skubal that will meet their enormous asking price, then hanging onto him could be in their best interest. First, a compensatory draft pick isn't nothing. In some cases, that return could have more potential than whatever trade package the Tigers can get for an ace coming off elbow surgery. Second, if Skubal is indeed interested in at least a short-term reunion, the Tigers can allow him to rebuild his trade value and deal him in the future.

That's a lot of ifs, and only Harris and Skubal know exactly how likely a reunion is. If Skubal already has one foot out the door, then they should trade him no matter what, especially if they remain out of playoff contention come early August. You only get one chance to recoup value for a two-time Cy Young winner in a walk year, after all.

But if what McDaniel reported even has a kernel of truth, then the Tigers should weigh their options.

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