Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Tigers star pitcher Tarik Skubal will miss 2-3 months with an arm injury.
- Skubal is set to become a free agent this offseason and has been expected to sign a record-setting contract.
- Insider Robert Murray unpacks how the injury and the after-effects could impact Skubal's market.
Tarik Skubal’s upcoming free agency has been the talk of baseball. A record-setting contract has felt inevitable; just how much higher does it get than Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324 million deal? The only thing that potentially stood in the way of that is an injury.
And that’s exactly what happened, with Skubal undergoing surgery to remove loose bodies in his left elbow, according to the Tigers, a procedure that could sideline him for 2-3 months. It’s a devastating blow for a Detroit club that’s already struggling with its pitching depth, but losing Skubal for any length of time is bad as it gets.
So what does it mean for his upcoming free agency?
How Tarik Skubal's injury could affect his free agency after this season
Right now, there’s too much unknown about Skubal’s injury to make an accurate assessment. But there are numerous scenarios where this ailment will hardly impact his free agency, if at all.
The good news for Skubal is that he will not be sidelined for the remainder of the season, and it’s possible he doesn’t even need to be placed on the 60-day Injured List. He could return with a bunch of time left in the regular season and should he showcase that he’s 1) healthy and 2) dominant, his contract in free agency could very well be north of $400 million.
But as MLB Trade Rumors noted, there have been recent examples of loose bodies in elbows sidelining pitchers for extended time. Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep of the Atlanta Braves underwent surgery for loose bodies almost simultaneously this spring. Schwellenbach is on the 60-day Injured List and hasn’t started throwing after almost two months while Waldrep wasn’t placed on the 60-day Injured List and is scheduled to throw bullpens.
With a player of Skubal’s dominance and the amount on the line, both with this Tigers season and his free agency, people will demand immediate answers on what this means for his outlook. But not even Skubal or the Tigers know those answers.
Skubal, however, has been dominant once again in 2026, with the superstar left-hander posting a 2.70 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 43.1 innings. In his seven-year career, he’s posted a 3.06 ERA and 934 strikeouts in 810 innings. It’s what’s made the case for possibly trading Skubal ahead of free agency strong – the Tigers could try to extract value for him before he leaves in free agency – but that scenario appears all but dead now that he’s out for extended time.
It allows the Tigers to keep Skubal and attempt to compete for a championship once more before he inevitably leaves in free agency. But losing him, especially with Casey Mize, Justin Verlander and Reese Olson on the Injured List, is crushing. But it’s why the Tigers signed Framber Valdez to the biggest contract of the Scott Harris Era.
They’ll need more than Valdez to get by. It will take the entire pitching staff to get through this. And once Skubal returns, it’ll help determine the market — and eventual contract — for the best free agent starter in years.
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