Thanks largely to the New York Mets' recent collapse, the Philadelphia Phillies have opened up a commanding lead in the NL East. Don't get me wrong - adding Jhoan Duran at the trade deadline makes this team incredibly formidable, especially given their dominant rotation and superb top of the lineup, but the top-heavy order could be what sends the Phillies home early in October.
He might not be a $300 million player, but Trea Turner has been a rock-solid catalyst out of the leadoff spot this season. Following Turner in the Phillies' lineup are Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, the possible NL MVP winner and an MVP-caliber player when healthy. After Harper is, well, that's kind of the problem. The Phillies have three strong hitters at the top of the order, and not much else to speak of.
With that in mind, Nick Castellanos, the guy who was supposed to hit fourth in this Phillies lineup and has done so 49 times this season, could be a big reason why Philadelphia gets sent home early.
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Nick Castellanos is not the hitter he once was
Not too long ago, Castellanos was one of the best hitters in the National League. I mean, in 2023, Castellanos was an All-Star and received down ballot MVP votes. 2024 wasn't as good of a year for the outfielder, but he still hit 23 home runs, drove in 86 runs, and was one of the few Phillies who showed up in the NLDS. This season, though, Castellanos looks like a shell of himself at the dish.
The 33-year-old is slashing .252/.290/.405 with 15 home runs and 60 RBI in 119 games played. Castellanos has always been a putrid defender, and that's been the case this season, but his offense has tanked. His 88 OPS+ isn't only the lowest mark of his 13-year career, but it's 12 percent below league-average. Yes, one of the worst defenders in the game happens to also be a subpar hitter.
If Castellanos isn't hitting, the question then becomes what does his immediate future hold in Philadelphia? Well, it should include many more appearances on the bench.
Phillies have a Nick Castellanos problem they can't fix
The Phillies' outfield situation is far from stellar, which made Harrison Bader being their only trade deadline addition to that unit frustrating. As underwhelming as the group is, Castellanos might be the worst of the bunch. In fact, his -0.9 fWAR is tied for dead last among 159 qualified position players. It's been that bad.
With Schwarber entrenched as the team's DH, the Phillies are better suited to run out a lineup similar to the one they did on Saturday with Castellanos on the bench if he isn't hitting. Castellanos is mired in a 1-for-33 slump. Perhaps a day off will help him get back on track, but the veteran wasn't playing particularly great before this slump either.
Castellanos should be benched, but the lack of alternatives makes that outcome extremely unlikely. All Phillies fans can hope is that he gets going offensively.
Phillies lack of lineup depth could haunt them in October
Ultimately, whether Castellanos plays or not doesn't even mean much. This Phillies lineup just doesn't feel deep enough to win. Again, who is supposed to hit after Harper? J.T. Realmuto, a catcher well past his prime who has a a 94 OPS+? Alec Bohm, an infielder who has just eight home runs in 94 games this season?
Of the Phillies players who have at least 100 plate appearances this season, the only ones with a WRC+ over the league average of 100 are Schwarber (160), Harper (134), Turner (113) and Brandon Marsh (107). Guys like Bohm and Realmuto aren't far off, but they're still below-average hitters by this metric.
At the end of the day, it takes nine position players to win postseason games consistently. Having five or six of them be below-average hitters won't inspire much confidence. Castellanos was supposed to add some offensive firepower even with his defensive shortcomings, but his inability to do so can prove to be the team's detriment in October. We've seen the Phillies' offense come up short on several occasions in the postseason — don't be surprised if we see that again and with Castellanos right in the middle of it.