The majority of the conversation in free agency surrounds the stars, mainly Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman. Rightfully so. They are franchise-altering talents and will command combined contracts in excess of $500 million in free agency, and it’s anyone’s guess how much higher that number goes.
But most teams are looking to extract the best value on the open market. And there is possibly no better upside play than Walker Buehler.
Why Walker Buehler is MLB’s ultimate buy-low rotation gamble
In his prime, Buehler was a stalwart in the Dodgers’ rotation. He was supposed to take over atop the rotation once Clayton Kershaw retired and lead the franchise for years to come. For the first four seasons of his career, Buehler appeared primed to do so. He posted ERAs of 2.62, 3.26 and 3.44 in his first three seasons before breaking out in Year 4, where he had a 2.47 ERA and 212 strikeouts in 33 starts while finishing fourth in the National League Cy Young voting.
Injuries, however, took over and halted Buehler’s career. He underwent a second Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for almost two seasons before returning in 2024, where he posted a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts with the Dodgers. In 2025, Buehler was diagnosed with right shoulder bursitis/inflammation, and with the Boston Red Sox, he posted a 5.45 ERA in 112.1 innings.
Buehler was released by the Red Sox and eventually signed by the Philadelphia Phillies for the remainder of the season. In only 3 appearances in Philadelphia (13.2 innings), he posted a 0.66 ERA. Yes, he dealt with command issues — he had six walks to eight strikeouts — but the numbers looked a lot better than his time in Boston.
Since he debuted, Buehler has been a different pitcher. In 2017, his average fastball velocity was 98.3 mph. In 2025, it was 94 mph. He features a seven-pitch arsenal: four-seamer, cutter, slider, sinker, knuckle curve, changeup and sweeper, according to Baseball Savant. Considering his extensive history in the majors, and also his postseason experience (94.2 innings), he’s a worthy candidate for a team looking for a starting pitcher with upside. And spoiler alert: That’s almost every team.
Teams that make sense for a one-year Walker Buehler flier
- Baltimore Orioles
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chicago Cubs
First, the Baltimore Orioles make sense. They remain open to adding another starting pitcher even after bringing in Zach Eflin. It’s also possible they could look to take a bigger swing on a player such as, say, Ranger Suarez. They made a similar one-year flier signing last season by bringing in Charlie Morton. Sure, that didn’t work out. But who says Buehler would have a similar fate?
The Pittsburgh Pirates are another team that makes sense. They are open to adding another starting pitcher to a dominant young staff. His postseason experience could be valuable for Paul Skenes, among others, and he’d present upside toward the backend of the rotation.
And the Chicago Cubs could also make sense as a team for Buehler. They are hardly connected to any big names in free agency (with the exception of Alex Bregman). It appears they want to add value with upside, and the work they did with pitchers, most notably Brad Keller and Drew Pomeranz, was noticed by folks around the league. Could Buehler be their next veteran project?
Those are just speculative guesses on my end. But really, any team looking for a starting pitcher should be on Buehler. Let’s say he gets a one-year contract worth $6-10 million. That’s a pretty darn good value for a team with a whole lotta upside. If I ran a team (I don’t), I’d surely take a long look.