Way-too-early 2027 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot predictions: Who's in and who's out?

Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran, two of the greatest center fielders in MLB history, were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame on Tuesday, and deservedly so. While those two legends will get their moment in Cooperstown, it's worth noting those that will fall off the ballot entirely. Manny Ramirez will not be on the 2027 ballot after failing to get in on his 10th and final try, and the same can be said for 11 of the 12 first-year candidates who failed to reach the necessary five percent margin to remain on the ballot.

Now that we have more of an idea as to who will be on the 2027 Hall of Fame ballot, let's determine which players might get in and might get booted this time next year.

A look at the 2027 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

Returning players

Of the returning players, the ones with the best odds of getting into the Hall of Fame are Chase Utley, Andy Pettitte and Felix Hernandez based on the votes from this past year's ballot. Utley appears to be on track after picking up 26 percent of votes from last year. Hernandez is another fast riser who could very well make it despite not having the kind of longevity usually seen from Hall of Famers.

As for Pettitte, his case is a fascinating one. With 2027 being his ninth try on the ballot, though, time is running out for him to earn enough votes to get to the Hall.

Potential new additions

As was the case in the 2026 ballot, many of the 2027 additions figure to be one-and-done with few exceptions. Brett Gardner was a much better player than most probably thought, considering his 37.3 fWAR, but he didn't have the peak or numbers necessary ever to come close to making the Hall, even if he might stick around. Ryan Zimmerman had arguably a Hall of Fame-worthy peak, but injuries derailed the back-half of his career.

The two players who figure to have the best shot from this crop of players to get in are Jon Lester and Buster Posey. Lester's regular-season numbers aren't exactly Hall of Fame-worthy, but he pitched over 2,700 innings in 16 seasons, made five All-Star teams, and what he did in the postseason (three World Series titles, 2.51 career ERA) deserves recognition. As for Posey, he might be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. That's how great he was.

Predicting the 2027 Baseball Hall of Fame inductees

C Buster Posey

It might be controversial to predict that Buster Posey, a catcher who played just 10 full seasons, will get into the Hall of Fame at all, let alone on the first ballot, but the numbers speak for themselves. In fact, we saw a player with a similar resume, Joe Mauer get in on the first try just a couple of years ago. Here's a look at a career comparison of these two catchers.

Posey has as much, if not a bigger case than Mauer did for Cooperstown, especially with his postseason success in mind. Whether Posey gets in on the first try remains to be seen (he should), but he should be a near lock to get in sooner rather than later.

Predicting the players removed from the 2027 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

Two rules to keep in mind for the Hall of Fame is that players must receive more than five percent of the vote to remain on the ballot for the next year and that players can only remain on the ballot for 10 years before getting removed. Those two factors will result in the players below being removed from next year's ballot.

SS Omar Vizquel

Next year will be Omar Vizquel's 10th and final year on the ballot, and he's got virtually no shot of getting into the Hall. Vizquel is one of the best defensive shortstops of all-time, but his bat was never close to Hall of Fame-worthy and off-field incidents have made him even less inductible.

INF Asdrubal Cabrera

Asdrubal Cabrera was a two-time All-Star and had some great years, particularly with the Cleveland Guardians, but with only 28.3 fWAR to his name, it's unlikely he'll stick around on the Hall of Fame ballot for long.

2B/SS Starlin Castro

It looked as if Starlin Castro might've been on a fast track to Cooperstown when he made two All-Star teams in his first three years, but he only made two more All-Star appearances in the remaining nine years and his career essentially ended with a domestic violence suspension.

RHP Wade Davis

Wade Davis deserves some love for reviving his career with the Kansas City Royals and being one of the league's best relievers in the mid-2010s, but he doesn't have the longevity to be seriously considered, and relievers already face a major uphill battle.

OF Dexter Fowler

Chicago Cubs fans will never forget Dexter Fowler's lead-off home run in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series, but he was never anything more than a good, not great player. He lacks the longevity and peak needed to end up in Cooperstown.

3B Todd Frazier

Todd Frazier had a nice career, hitting over 200 home runs, making a pair of All-Star teams and even winning a Home Run Derby, but his accolades and numbers don't come close to matching those who are in the Hall.

LHP J.A. Happ

J.A. Happ was an unsung hero in the Philadelphia Phillies' run to the 2009 World Series and carved out a nice career as an innings-eating mid-rotation arm. Unfortunately, he lacked the peak needed to be taken seriously on the Hall of Fame ballot.

LHP Scott Kazmir

Scott Kazmir had a Hall of Fame-caliber start to his career, and I do wonder whether he would've had. a case had he been able to stay healthy. Injuries ruined any chance he had at a plaque in Cooperstown, though.

LHP Andrew Miller

Andrew Miller went from looking like a major bust to one of the league's most dominant relievers, but a short stint of dominance in relief is not enough for him to be strongly considered for the Hall of Fame.

1B Mitch Moreland

Mitch Moreland was a decent power-hitting first baseman, but with just a 100 wRC+ and 7.2 fWAR, he might have the weakest case of anyone who might be Hall of Fame eligible in 2027.

RHP Ervin Santana

Ervin Santana pitched for parts of 16 seasons and had nearly 2,500 innings of work. He was also a two-time All-Star. Still, with a career ERA over 4.00 and no major awards, it's hard to envision Santana garnering much consideration.

3B Kyle Seager

Kyle Seager played in nine full seasons and had 20+ home runs in each of them. He is unquestionably one of the best Seattle Mariners in recent memory and one of the most underrated third basemen of his era. Still, with only nine full seasons played and one All-Star appearance, Seager doesn't have much of a Baseball Hall of Fame case.

RHP Joakim Soria

If relievers were valued by the Hall of Fame voters more perhaps Joakim Soria's rock-solid 14-year career would've garnered some more consideration, but he spent most of his career as a non-closer and was only really a star in his first four or five seasons.

RHP Jordan Zimmermann

Jordan Zimmermann was one of the best pitchers in the National League during his prime with the Washington Nationals, but he was never the same after signing a mega-deal with the Detroit Tigers, all-but ending any shot he had at the Baseball

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