Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Toronto Blue Jays are off to an 18-24 start in 2026, and one star is struggling to deliver expected power at the plate.
- Encouraging signs suggest a potential breakout is coming soon as key metrics align with past performance levels.
- The team's overall struggles may be influencing the star's timing, but adjustments could lead to a crucial second-half surge.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was on top of the world after nearly willing the Toronto Blue Jays to a World Series title last fall and putting together a strong showing in the WBC for the Dominican Republic this spring — all before his massive 14-year, $500 million extension with the Jays had even officially kicked in. Well, the Jays are off to a sluggish 18-24 start in 2026, and Guerrero is a big reason for that.
Guerrero's struggles, particularly lately, have Jays fans in a tailspin. While the start of this season has undoubtedly been frustrating for the team and Guerrero, there's no reason to panic, at least on the Vladdy front.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not hitting for the power Blue Jays fans expect
What's gone wrong for Guerrero is quite simple: He isn't hitting for any power. Guerrero is hitting .292 with a .373 on-base percentage, getting his share of hits and drawing his share of walks, but his slugging percentage is at an unfathomably low .377. For reference, the Jays have seven qualified hitters thus far, and Guerrero's slugging percentage is the worst of all of them — 33 points lower than Ernie Clement. Don't get me wrong, Clement is a great player, but he's not exactly a slugger.
When you think of Guerrero, you think of his raw power. You think of the guy who hit eight home runs and smacked five doubles while driving in 15 runs in just 18 postseason games. You think of the guy who has hit as many as 48 homers in a single season. But that power has just been nonexistent, especially lately.
Guerrero has not hit a home run since April 20, nearly a full month ago. He has a .546 OPS in 81 plate appearances in that span. Heck, he doesn't even have an extra-base hit in May, a stretch of 13 games. Ultimately, he didn't earn the contract he signed to hit singles and draw walks; he's here to do damage, and he's done very little of it this season.
As frustrating as Guerrero has been, particularly of late, again, Jays fans shouldn't panic.
Why Blue Jays fans shouldn't be worried about Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
First and foremost, it's not as if we haven't seen this from Guerrero before. I mean, this is the same guy who went the first 18 games of the 2025 season without a single home run and with only four doubles. He didn't hit his second home run until his 26th game of the season, and he had only four long balls through the first 42 games. Now, his power outage has been a bit more extreme this season, but it's not as if Guerrero started on some major hot streak in the power department last year.
While the Jays were a bit better at this point last season than they are right now, it's not as if their 21-21 record back then was anything to write home about. Yet, we know how that season finished: Guerrero finished that regular season with 23 home runs, was named an All-Star, received down-ballot MVP votes and had one of the best postseason runs in MLB history. Toronto made it to the World Series and nearly won it. Starting slowly does not mean a player or team will finish slowly.
Second, as frustrating as this might be to hear, there are some encouraging signs under the hood that suggest a breakout is coming. For example, Guerrero's 15.7-percent pulled fly ball rate, as low as that might seem, is his highest mark since 2023 — and the second-highest of his career. Generally, when you pull fly balls, you'll hit home runs, especially when you have the kind of power Guerrero has.
Additionally, Guerrero's 76.4 mph bat speed is right on par with where it was in 2025. It's not as if he cannot generate power. He's a bit off timing-wise, but adjustments will be made in that regard. Ultimately, it feels like with the Jays struggling (and with the injuries the team has dealt with) Guerrero might be trying to do a bit too much. That, too, will change.
It's hard to preach patience when things have gone as poorly as they have thus far north of the border, but once his timing is back in order, look for the streaky Guerrero to carry the Jays once again. Whether he can guide them to the playoffs and on a run in October, though, remains to be seen.
More Toronto Blue Jays news and analysis:
Add us as a preferred source on Google