Immediately after Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers didn’t come to terms on a 2026 salary, the reactions poured in from around baseball.
Why would the Tigers do this, one baseball person asked. It’s the beginning of the end of Skubal’s time with the Tigers, another baseball person opined. So on and so forth. None of the reactions were positive.
Then the numbers that each side requested were released. Skubal filed for a $32 million salary while the Tigers countered at $19 million, with the $13 million gap easily being the largest in salary-arbitration history. And a hearing, which is scheduled for February 4 in Arizona, would have everyone in baseball’s attention.
So what does this mean for Skubal and the Tigers moving forward?
Tarik Skubal’s relationship with the Tigers
One of the first things I learned covering baseball is that taking players to an arbitration hearing can damage a relationship between players and teams.
The Milwaukee Brewers took both stars Josh Hader and Corbin Burnes to arbitration hearings in 2022 and 2023, and both players expressed frustration after the hearings.
“There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt," Burnes said. "There’s really no way of getting around that. Obviously, we’re professionals, and we’re going to go out there and do our job. Keep doing what I can every fifth day that I go out there. But some of the things that are said, for instance, basically putting me at the forefront of why we didn’t make the postseason last year – that’s something that probably doesn’t need to be said.”
Both Burnes and Hader were eventually traded by the Brewers. In fairness, the hearing did not directly lead to a trade. The small-market Brewers traded both players before they cashed in during free agency and received prospect-heavy packages in exchange for both. But the arbitration hearing seemingly marked the beginning of the end for both players in Milwaukee.
That could conceivably be the case for Skubal in Detroit. The two sides have had contract extension talks in the past, with the Tigers’ offer a year ago to the left-hander being around four years for under $80 million, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Tigers, too, are a small-market team and are highly unlikely to pay the record-setting salary that Skubal will eventually land, leading almost everyone in baseball to believe that 2026 will be his last season with the Tigers.
Tarik Skubal’s future in Detroit
Trade speculation has surrounded Skubal all offseason. The Tigers have been careful not to comment publicly on anything Skubal-related but have listened to calls. A trade, however, has never felt likely.
No matter what happens in the arbitration hearing, I don’t expect it to lead to a Skubal trade this offseason. At $19 million, Skubal would be a steal for the Tigers. At $32 million, he’d be making far closer to his actual worth. But what kind of message would that send to the fanbase if they traded Skubal after it was determined his salary was $32 million in the final year of his contract?
It would be a PR disaster.
The most likely scenario has always been that Skubal would be the Tigers’ Opening Day starter. If they are out of contention at the deadline, a trade becomes a more realistic possibility. They wouldn’t get a franchise-altering haul, but they’d still get more than whatever a qualifying offer would net them should Skubal depart in free agency.
The organization would face a difficult decision if they’re firmly in contention at the deadline. Do you keep Skubal for the remainder of the year? Do you trade him? After the Brewers traded Hader in 2022, the team fell apart and ultimately missed the playoffs. Would the Tigers follow suit? It’s one of the many elements of this that rival executives are watching closely headed into 2026.
The other element of this arbitration hearing is what it would mean for the remainder of the Tigers’ offseason. If the Tigers lose the arbitration hearing, it could make it unlikely they sign another high-end starting pitcher, as Ken Rosenthal said on Foul Territory. The team has been connected to Lucas Giolito in reports, with the right-hander drawing interest from many teams, sources say.
Both Skubal and the Tigers will have clarity on his salary in 2026 in the coming days. And once that’s determined, the organization will know how it can proceed in free agency and the trade market. But it most likely will not lead to a Skubal trade.