The Tigers have already lost their arbitration standoff with defending two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal in a sense, as any chance that remained of the 29-year-old signing a contract extension has since evaporated. On Wednesday, Feb. 4, the Tigers will officially argue against their ace making, well, ace-level money. While most arbitration cases are settled long before a trial, the gap between the Tigers and Skubal – $13 million – shattered previous records.
Skubal's case is unprecedented for many reasons. He's easily the most accomplished player to enter arbitration, and was certain to set records even if he had settled out of court with the Tigers. However, history is working against Detroit in this instance, and they could be forced to pay up as a result.
What makes Tarik Skubal's arbitration case so unique?
Skubal is in his fifth and final year of arbitration, as he's set to reach free agency next winter. Assuming he doesn't suffer a major injury, he'll be looking for a $400 million contract. Odds are, he won't get that kind of offer from the Tigers or another mid-market team. If you're starting to understand the dilemma here, you're not alone.
Arbitration exists – fair or not – as a form of competitive balance that allows all teams (including those in smaller markets) to grow and retain their own star players through their primes. Obviously, this isn't always fair to players like Skubal, who has outplayed the $19 million offer the Tigers initially made him.
Tigers arbitration offer to Skubal would break records
Scott Harris is likely to present the Tigers offer as history-making in its own right. With a $19 million arbitration offer, Skubal would receive the largest single-season raise in MLB arbitration history. He'd also be just shy of the largest single-season payday for a starting pitcher via arbitration at $19.8 million, which was set by former Tigers pitcher David Price.
What is Tarik Skubal's argument?
Scott Boras countered at $32 million for a reason. First, he wanted to cast a wide net. Essentially, all Boras has to do is argue Skubal is worth more than $25.5 million for an arbiter to rule in his favor. Boras will argue that MLB's Collective Bargaining Agreement allows fifth-year arbitration players like Skubal to compare themselves to any other player in the league when settling a salary dispute, rather than just past arbitration cases. If Boras wins that argument, odds are Skubal will get his $32 million. That number would be the largest ever given out in arbitration, surpassing Juan Soto's $31 million from 2024.
Will Scott Boras or the Tigers win Tarik Skubal's arbitration case?
To the point at hand, the Tigers entire argument for this case has a pretty clear flaw. Detroit will stand on their offer, saying that they tried to give Skubal a record-breaking raise and make him the second-highest-paid starting pitcher in MLB arbitration history. However, one could easily argue that Skubal is a unique talent.
Detroit and Harris will focus on the raise Skubal is receiving, rather than the overall money. Skubal and Boras will argue the opposite, pointing to the amount of money the Tigers have saved with their ace in his arbitration years, and revealing what Price's $19.8 million would look like with inflation included.
Player | Offer | Offer with inflation |
|---|---|---|
David Price | $19.75 million | $27 million |
Jacob deGrom | $17 million | $21.89 million |
Tarik Skubal | $19 million | $19 million |
As Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic points out, Price was more accomplished in his career when he received that $19.8 million payment. Also, deGrom had more bWAR than Skubal in the season he received that record-breaking raise. The Tigers will use these points.
What they are missing, though, is that both of those records were set a long time ago. As great as deGrom was at that point in his career, he only had one Cy Young to his name and, frankly, was a victim of a flawed system. Price only had one Cy Young in his entire career, and hasn't reached the heights of Skubal.
How Tarik Skubal can earn his $32 million
For Skubal to earn his $32 million in inflation, it's actually relatively simple. All Boras has to do is prove that Skubal is worth more than $25.5 million. In order to accomplish that, Boras must also prove that his interpretation of the CBA, which states that players Skubal's age in their fifth year of arbitration can compare valuation to any other MLB player, and not just prior arbitration cases.
What a Tarik Skubal arbitration win would mean for MLB
If Skubal and Boras win their case, thus earning the ace $32 million for the 2026 season, the ramifications go for beyond their wildest dreams. First, if any player – even the best pitcher in baseball – can out-scheme the arbitration system, it is far from flawless and will be addressed in the next round of CBA talks, conveniently scheduled to take place next December.
Second, Skubal would essentially limit his own trade interest, as many of the teams that would be interested in acquiring him either before the season or at the deadline would be doing so because he's on an affordable salary. $32 million is not the same as $19 million, even if on an expiring contract. Contenders like the Baltimore Orioles, just as an example, would surely notice that increase.
And most importantly, Skubal is not the only of his kind. Pitchers coming up through the ranks, such as Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates, could very well be in a similar situation in a few years. Assuming Skenes and the Pirates have a similar difference in opinion on the NL Cy Young winner's value, Skubal's case could be used as a precedent of its own.