The Detroit Tigers and Tarik Skubal have reached a crossroads. The reigning two-time AL Cy Young winner filed for $32 million in his final year of contract arbitration. Detroit filed at $19 million. There's a good chance Detroit wins the upcoming hearing, but the perceived disrespect from Skubal's side probably ends all hope of a long-term union beyond 2026.
Detroit has never come particularly close to working out an extension for Skubal. Once he hits the open market next winter, the lefty figures to set a new record for pitcher compensation. He is, after all, the best in the business at his position. That gives Detroit two paths forward. Neither is particularly appealing.
Which path will the Tigers choose?
The Path of Least Resistance: Keep him
There's a strong case that Skubal is simply too valuable to trade. The Tigers lost Game 7 of the ALDS to Seattle by the skin of their teeth a few months ago. AJ Hinch might be the best manager in MLB. Detroit has a deep lineup, albeit one that's a bit short on star power. This team knows how to play the matchups and win a bunch of games. Detroit spent a good chunk of last season as the No. 1 seed in the American League, after all.
From that perspective, the Tigers want to contend in 2026 and should view keeping Skubal as their most realistic path to a World Series. Why not run it back one last time and see if everything comes together? He'd still leave in free agency, almost certainly, but it could be a storybook ending that cements his name in Detroit sports lore forever. To many, that's worth a shot.
The Forward-Looking Path: Trade him
All of that said ... Detroit's odds of toppling Toronto, New York and Seattle in the American League — not to mention L.A. or Chicago or Philadelphia in the World Series — are extremely slim. And while Skubal is awesome, he can only take the mound once every fifth game. Maybe once every third or fourth game in October. So if Detroit plans on winning, the roster needs to be built sustainably for when Skubal doesn't serve up six shutout frames.
The Tigers probably don't win it all with Skubal in 2026. It's possible, but extremely unlikely. If he leaves for nothing next winter, Detroit is left in the lurch without a path to recouping value, much less replacing Skubal.
If Detroit hits the eject button and trades him, Skubal should fetch the Tigers a nice haul — even on an expiring contract, even if he sticks the landing on his $32 million arbitration demand. Detroit can probably get young pitching to bring up behind Skubal. The Tigers can also hope to beef up their positional pipeline. Multiple top-10 prospects from any team is the starting point for negotiations.
What are the red flags with Skubal?
Frankly, there aren't a ton of red flags here. There is risk baked into any move, but Skubal has earned his status as the American League's premier ace. Skubal is a left-hander who tortures lefties and righties alike. He possesses an incredible blend of poise, command and stuff. If you're looking for the most devastating individual pitch in MLB, Skubal's changeup ranks high on the list.
Inquiring teams will have but only a handful of real concerns, and even those are marginal compared to his incredible talent.
Injuries
Skubal missed half the 2023 season after undergoing major elbow surgery. He avoided Tommy John just barely, and immediately blossomed into an ace upon his return. Before the injury, Skubal had put together a couple middling seasons in Detroit. Truly nothing special. Once he came back, though, the Tigers had their franchise superstar. Skubal is a shining example of patient internal development and individual work ethic. Skubal was never a high draft pick or a lauded high school phenom. He built himself into this, from the ground up.
Durability is always the chief concern with pitchers. Skubal has shouldered a significant workload since the injury, pitching deep into the 2024 and 2025 playoffs. He eats a lot of innings. Teams will want the full medical book on him before trading away their future. But Skubal's durability these past couple years merits praise, not skepticism. Pretty much every pitcher worries about elbow surgery at some point. Skubal just happens to require a substantial long-term investment a year from now.
The expiring contract
Skubal's upcoming contract demands will scare off certain teams. He's still worth the rental for those with a legitimate path to the World Series, but there's only so much a front office can reasonably offer without realistic hope of re-signing him as a free agent. That could chip away at the market and limit Detroit's bargaining power a little bit. Unless you're the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees or Blue Jays, can you really feel good about your chances with Skubal on the open market?
Most likely landing spots for Tarik Skubal
The favorite: New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have the right mix of need, financial heft and prospect depth to put a strong offer on the table. New York has a lot of injuries in the rotation right now, but would also love the long-term outlook of Skubal, Max Fried and Gerrit Cole spearheading the rotation. Plus, we know the Yankees can go big in free agency when they want to: New York put $700 million-plus on the table for Juan Soto.
Going $400 million-plus for an ace of Skubal's caliber is within their means. The Yankees can trade MLB-ready arms, like Will Warren, Luis Gil and Elmer Rodríguez. Young bats like Jasson Domínguez, Spencer Jones and Dax Kilby could also catch Detroit's eye.
These teams can pay Skubal: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays
The other teams with "Skubal extension" money sitting around, essentially.
Los Angeles has long been viewed as the frontrunner for Skubal due to its loaded farm system and seemingly endless spending power. But the Dodgers have six quality starters on the MLB roster already, with Rōki Sasaki and Emmet Sheehan both candidates to take huge leaps in 2026. L.A. also has a lot of money tied up long term. Even the Dodgers need to be smart with how they distribute resources. Handing a theoretical $500 million to Skubal, on top of Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshi Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, is a debatable use of that kind of cash. But never say never, because the Dodgers can make this happen if they want to.
The Mets just acquired Freddy Peralta, another ace on an expiring contract. He arrives in Queens alongside Tobias Meyers, which more or less fills out the starting rotation. Jonah Tong is probably back in the mix sometime next season as well. While the Mets will almost certainly express interest in Skubal as a free agent, it does not feel like a trade is cooking. But again: Financial means and prospect depth is reason enough to keep the Mets on your Skubal radar.
As for the Blue Jays, this would represent an opportunity to get ahead of the free agency scramble. Toronto has long-term money to throw around. After whiffing on Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker, however, it could behoove the Jays to get a year with Skubal under their belt, mount an AL pennant defense and ingratiate themselves to the hard-throwing lefty before he hits the open market.
These teams are in the hunt: Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox
The Cubs were willing to give up real value for a year of Kyle Tucker. The rotation is much stronger after the Edward Cabrera trade, but Matthew Boyd and Justin Steele are not foolproof headliners in October. Their asset pool is a bit shallower after shipping Owen Caissie to Miami, but the Cubs can put in a competitive bid.
The Orioles would almost certainly be renting Skubal, but a similar arrangement with Corbin Burnes worked well in 2024. The O's have more quality young bats than they know what to do with. A consolidation trade to pair Skubal with Shane Baz, Trevor Rogers and an improved rotation — not to mention a lineup with pennant-winning upside — could be worth it.
The Red Sox signed Ranger Suárez and traded for both Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo. No team needs a consolidation trade more than these Sox, however: Boston has too many outfielders and too many MLB-ready pitchers. That gives them plenty of ammo to go after Skubal. It's just unclear if Craig Breslow really has the appetite to trade major, controllable pieces and attempt to re-sign Skubal as a free agent.