MLB trade grades: Cubs cough up top prospect in high-risk Edward Cabrera deal

Chicago needed to add some impact talent to its starting rotation. Cabrera offers just that ... provided he doesn't implode first.
New York Mets v Miami Marlins
New York Mets v Miami Marlins | Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins/GettyImages

Days after trade talks first seemed to heat up regarding Miami Marlins starter Edward Cabrera, the righty is on the move — just not to the team we thought. Instead, it's the Chicago Cubs who have reportedly gotten a deal done, as first broken by Bleacher Nation's Michael Cerami.

There was a bit of suspense along the way, as several hours went by after Cerami's initial report while Cubs doctors reviewed Cabrera's medical records. But ESPN's Jeff Passan now confirms that the deal is done: Cabrera is headed to Chicago, with the Cubs sending outfielder Owen Caissie (their No. 1 prospect) plus infielders Cristian Hernandez and Edgardo DeLeon back to Miami.

Cubs-Marlins Edward Cabrera trade details and reasoning

Cubs fans have been begging Jed Hoyer to finally stop fiddling around the margins this offseason and take a big swing, and this certainly qualifies. Chicago's lineup was already loaded for bear, and Hoyer had addressed the bullpen by adding names like Phil Maton and Hunter Harvey, but the rotation stuck out as an obvious area of need. Justin Steele is still working his way back from last year's elbow surgery, and while youngster Cade Horton looks like a future star, guys like Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon didn't offer the kind of ceiling needed to go toe-to-toe with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Cabrera, who turns 28 in April, is about to enter his first year of arbitration and is under team control through 2028. He enjoyed his best season in the Majors so far in 2025, with a 3.53 ERA and 150 strikeouts across 137.2 innings (26 starts) — all while posting a career-best walk rate, a promising sign for a player who's long struggled with command issues. The righty's ceiling is beyond dispute: When he's healthy and in the strike zone, his high-90s fastballs and devastating array of offspeed stuff (curveball, slider and changeup) make him as tough to square up as anybody.

Of course, he also comes with plenty of risk; there's a reason why an ascending Marlins team was willing to part with him three years before he hits free agency. The Cubs are giving up considerable young talent to land a pitcher with a short track record of consistent MLB success and a not-insignificant injury history, and that makes this one of the most fascinating trades in recent memory.

Cubs trade grade: C

Edward Cabrera
Miami Marlins v New York Mets | Jim McIsaac/GettyImages

I get the upside case for Cabrera, I really do. He's got a full arsenal of spectacular stuff, he showed signs of finally putting it all together in 2025 and he's entering his age-28 season with three more cost-controlled years remaining. If it all clicks, the Cubs have themselves a frontline guy for pennies on the dollar, and this is a much-needed boost to a rotation light on sure things.

The problem, though, is that Cabrera isn't a sure thing himself. For starters, the command remains a real issue, and could well limit him to a No. 3 or 4 option. And that's not even addressing the elephant in the room, the reason this deal took so long to finalize in the first place: his health. Cabrera suffered a slight tear in his UCL toward the end of last season, and while he opted to pitch through it rather than shut himself down, this is the sort of injury that can often serve as a precursor to something more serious like Tommy John. And that's the tip of the iceberg when it comes to his injury history; there were also shoulder issues in both 2023 and 2024, plus elbow tendinitis in 2022.

It's one thing to dream on the pitcher Cabrera might be. But he has a limited track record of actual success, and the health risk moving forward would seem (in my unprofessional opinion, at least) to be pretty significant. For a Cubs team that needed a true stabilizer atop the rotation, someone to put less pressure on the likes of Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd, I'm not sure this is it. It feels more like adding another intriguing but hardly elevating option to the mix, and Chicago wasn't short on those.

Marlins trade grade: B

Owen Caissie
Tampa Bay Rays v Chicago Cubs | Matt Dirksen/GettyImages

I understand people who might want to roll their eyes at Miami trading a promising pitcher several years before he's set to hit free agency. But as stated above, there was good reason for the Marlins to consider selling high on Cabrera. And the fact that they were able to land Caissie means that this trade really isn't sacrificing the short term.

He was blocked in Chicago by a crowded Cubs outfield, but Caissie is one of the more promising hititng prospects in the Minors, a decent enough athlete in the field who brings massive pop at the plate. He tore up Triple-A as a 20-year-old last year, slashing .286/.386/.551 before injuries finally opened up a spot in the Majors. He struggled in his first cup of coffee, striking out north of 40 percent of the time, but 12 games is hardly a representative sample size.

There is some swing and miss in Caissie's game; he's a big guy with a long, powerful swing. But he displayed a solid plate approach in the Minors, and if he can make enough contact against top pitching, there are 30-homer seasons in here waiting to be unlocked. He could well start in right field on Opening Day, giving Miami a very intriguing trio alongside Jakob Marsee and Kyle Stowers.

Hernandez still has some refinement to do in his plate approach, but he's more than just a throw-in, with the potential to be an above-average bat who can stick at shortstop. Giving up Cabrera stings, and leaves a hole in the rotation that Miami will need to fill. But as Peter Bendix looks to lay a foundation moving forward, you can understand why he thought that Caissie and Co. was a better bet than risking the next three years of Cabrera.

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