The Detroit Tigers basically wrapped up the Tarik Skubal era with their decision to stand firm on a $19 million arbitration offer. Skubal filed for a record-setting $32 million, a salary he has fully earned — even if Detroit probably wins on the technicalities of MLB's wonky arbitration system. That $13 million gap is a microcosm of years of failed extension talks, in which Detroit has frequently insulted their star pitcher.
There's still a good chance we see Detroit run it back for one final year and try to climb the mountaintop on Skubal's way out the door. But if the Tigers take stock of their situation and recognize the value of recouping multiple high-level prospects in a trade, Skubal could spend next season in new threads. One potential suitor: the Chicago Cubs.
Cubs still need more firepower on the mound
Chicago made a bold move to acquire righty Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins. That deal included the Cubs' top prospect, outfielder Owen Caissie. Cabrera arrives with multiple years of club control, a devastating off-speed package, and substantial room for growth. This was a gamble on upside for a pitcher whose star flashes have, on occasion, been offset by command issues and inconsistency.
The Cubs' rotation looks solid enough on paper. Cabrera joins 2025 All-Star Matthew Boyd and 2024 All-Star Shōta Imanaga, with Justin Steele expected to return from elbow surgery midseason. Jameson Taillon finished last season awfully strong and Cade Horton was a bonafide Rookie of the Year candidate.
That said, Chicago does not have the marquee ace that L.A., Philadelphia, New York and other NL contenders can boast of. The Cubs' pitching was a real mixed bag in October and there's no reason to expect meaningfully better results in 2026, lest Horton or Cabrera really turn it up a notch.
So while the Cubs put a hole in their farm system with the Cabrera trade, digging deeper for Skubal is not out of the question — especially since Jed Hoyer showed his willingness to engage on rentals with the Kyle Tucker trade a year ago.
What would it cost for the Cubs to trade for Tarik Skubal?
This trade should satisfy Detroit's appetite. The Tigers need to understand the logic behind a trade at this point, but Scott Harris and the front office won't ship off the best pitcher in baseball without a hearty return package. One year of Skubal is worth more than five years of most other pitchers. Health is never a guarantee, especially with pitchers, but Skubal's presence meaningfully improves Chicago's World Series odds in 2026.
The Cubs have the lineup best equipped to combat Los Angeles in the NL. Skubal is almost a scheduled win every fourth game in October, especially if the Cubs can reinforce the bullpen ahead of the trade deadline.
For Detroit, this move gives them a couple quality bats and a couple quality arms. Both Jaxon Wiggins, 24, and Brandon Birdsell, 25, are on the precipice of MLB. Alcántara offers a blend of speed and pop in the outfield that ought to capture the imagination of Tigers fans. Jonathon Long has limitations on defense, but he hits a baseball extremely hard. He posted a .305 average and .883 OPS with 20 home runs in 140 Triple-A games last season.
Would the Cubs and Tigers actually make this trade?
There is a real case for both sides, as laid out above. Jed Hoyer paid the price to for one year of Kyle Tucker and never had any illusions about re-signing him. Skubal might cost even more in terms of overall trade value, but he'd put Chicago on a new level in the NL — and potentially on an affordable $19 million salary, if Detroit wins its arbitration hearing.
That said... the risk is considerable. There's little precedent for Chicago re-signing a player of Skubal's magnitude, so this is strictly a rental. Coughing up four top-10 prospects is a lot. Even for a year of Skubal, who'd immediately become Paul Skenes' chief competition for the NL Cy Young award.
Detroit needs to come to terms with this whole Skubal debacle, but this is godfather trade territory, especially for an expiring contract. So the Tigers probably say yes, unless another team really goes above and beyond to blow Chicago out of the water. It's a bit tougher to determine if Chicago is willing to go this far, though, especially after sacrificing Cam Smith for Tucker and Owen Caissie for Cabrera. At some point, Chicago needs to preserve its pipeline.
The case for Chicago
Skubal, Steele, Cabrera, Boyd, Horton. With Imanaga, Taillon and Colin Rea to cycle through swingman roles or alternate trade proposals. That is a lot of quality pitching depth. The Cubs need youth in the rotation, and thus probably wince at the thought of trading Jaxon Wiggins (great stuff) and Brandon Birdsell (great command). But that rotation should shove in 2026, with the depth to sustain a contender for at least a couple more years, even if (or when) Skubal leaves.
It's hard to overstate just how dominant Skubal is. He finished last season with a 2.21 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, notching 241 strikeouts in 195.1 innings. He has a career 2.04 ERA and 1.91 FIP in six postseason starts, stacking 39.2 innings. Genuine beast mode.
If he stays healthy, Skubal delivers Chicago a huge Game 1 advantage in the postseason. October is so often a battle of inches. The offensive support Skubal has lacked in Detroit should not be lacking with this Cubs roster. The Dodgers are still the kings of the NL, but Chicago suddenly shapes up as one hell of a threat. Sometimes you just need to push your chips in and go for it. The Alex Bregman signing turns up the pressure on 2026; trading for Skubal would mean the Cubs are all in.
The case for Detroit
Jaxon Wiggins climbed from High-A to Triple-A last season, with a 2.19 ERA across 78.0 Minor League innings. He averaged a healthy 11.2 K's per nine innings. The righty has pro-quality stuff and could factor into Detroit's rotation as soon as next season.
The ceiling is a bit lower with Brandon Birdsell, but he offers precise command, and he gets some swing-and-miss with an unconventional release and nice layers to his arsenal. He, like Wiggins, can pitch for Detroit next season. If Detroit can get a No. 2 and a No. 4 starter out of this trade, that alone feels like a win.
Factor in Alcántara, whose 6-foot-6 frame and quick-twitch athleticism makes it easy to dream of his upside, and the Tigers have a potential 20-home run, 20-stolen base centerfielder on hand. Alcántara needs to improve his approach at the plate, but the tools at tantalizing.
Long profiles as a righty first base or DH, which limits his appeal somewhat. But the swing profile is too good to ignore, and the Tigers need power in the worst of ways. His path would be a bit complicated behind Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter, but he's talented enough to force Detroit's hand sooner than later.
The sheer volume of talent here is enough for Detroit to be confident in getting at least a couple long-term MLB contributors out of this trade. Their farm system gets a major facelift and sooner than later, these dudes will start beefing up Detroit's roster.