The best time of the MLB season is officially underway, as each of the four Wild Card Series has begun on Tuesday. None of the eight teams participating in the Wild Card Series can get eliminated on Tuesday, as each series is a best-of-three, but with the series being so short, fans understandably are begging their respective teams to win Game 1.
MLB made the controversial decision to expand the playoffs three years ago, adding an extra postseason team in each league and having teams play three-game series instead of single-elimination contests. A three-year sample size is far from massive, but it's large enough for MLB fans to draw conclusions about how this series works.
Something that's become abundantly clear in these three-game series is that winning Game 1 is as important as fans think it is, if not more so. The numbers back it up.
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Winning Game 1 has historically decided who advances to the Division Series
Teams who win Game 1 of the Wild Card Series have advanced to the Division Series all 12 times since the current playoff format was introduced in 2022 👀 pic.twitter.com/xvPuKNMeVt
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) September 30, 2025
The team that has won the opening game of the Wild Card Series has advanced to the Division Series every single time. Knowing this, Game 1 isn't an elimination game, but it really is. As of this writing, the Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox won Game 1, so while we can't officially pencil them into the Division Series, we certainly can feel good about that happening.
As for why this is the case, it ultimately comes down to the math. If a team wins Game 1, wouldn't the odds suggest it's far more likely that the team that wins Game 1 would win once more before the opponent wins twice?
Wild Card Series history has one more insane stat
The winner of Game 1 winning a three-game series isn't shocking, but what is shocking is that of the 12 Game 1 winners, 10 of them have won Game 2 to advance. That's right, we've seen just two winner-take-all games in the Wild Card Series.
The first came in 2022, as the San Diego Padres knocked off the New York Mets at Citi Field. San Diego won Game 1, New York evened up the series, but San Diego bounced back thanks largely to Joe Musgrove and his shiny ears to advance to the NLDS.
The other winner-take-all Wild Card Series game came last season, and it also involved the Mets. They faced off against the Milwaukee Brewers, and despite trailing 2-0 after eight innings, won the game 4-2 thanks to Pete Alonso's memorable three-run homer.
The Mets, of course, are not participating in this year's postseason, so does that mean we won't get a single Game 3? That remains to be seen.
Another predictable Wild Card Series could lead to changes being made
I'm a fan of the postseason format as is (even if I think there are too many teams), but I will say that if all four teams that win Game 1 advance again, there might be some changes that have to be made to this format. Sure, it's longer than a single elimination game, but is a three-game series really long enough? I mean, at a certain point will fan interest wane after Game 1 if this keeps happening?
It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues. If all four Game 1 winners move on, and especially if all four Game 1 winners end up sweeping their way to the Division Series, conversations must be had.