Major League Baseball's postseason is finally here. It's always a long and winding road to reach the playoffs, and while 18 teams are currently booking tee times, 12 are still in the hunt for the World Series.
Not every playoff appearance is created equal, but once you're in, the rest button is pushed and anything can happen. This was the first year that MLB didn't have a 100-win team since 2014, which also happened to be the year that all hell broke loose and all the top seeds were knocked out early. Are we headed for a repeat? It's very possible, so while on paper the Dodgers look like a huge favorite over the Reds and the Guardians and Tigers appear to be going in decidedly different directions, all it takes is two wins in three games to survive and advance.
There are countless matchups to consider and factors at play when looking at these series, but for those who don't have the time to cram tape on a Tuesday morning, we've boiled each one down to one burning question. Let's start in the National League with the defending champion Dodgers versus the backed-in-on-the-final-day Reds.
Can the Reds pitch like they're at home?
The Dodgers took five of six from the Reds this year, including a sweep at Chavez Ravine in late August (keep in mind that the higher seed will host all three games in the Wild Card round). For the Reds to have any chance in this series, they're going to either need the Dodgers to take them lightly, or they're going to have to pitch the games of their lives. They have the horses to do it, as Game 1 starter Hunter Greene is one of the most exciting young fireballers in the game, and Game 3 starter Andrew Abbott flew under nearly everyone's radar as a top-five lefty.
The problem with Cincinnati's pitching is that the difference between what they're capable of at Great American Ball Park and what they typically do on the road is night and day. Here's the home/road splits of all three probably starters this season. Just note that Zach Littell came over in a trade with the Rays at the deadline, and these are just his numbers since joining the Reds.
Pitcher | Home ERA | Road ERA |
|---|---|---|
Hunter Greene | 1.58 | 4.81 |
Zack Littell | 4.43 | 4.35 |
Andrew Abbott | 2.39 | 3.43 |
Littell has only started 10 games for Cincy, so that small sample size shouldn't be indicative of much. The difference between Greene's home and road splits is extremely concerning if you're a Reds fan, though, and Abbott's ERA jumping by over a full run is noteworthy, as well.
Greene's counterpart in Game 1 is Blake Snell, who's been nearly unhittable in L.A. He missed an extended period early in the year with shoulder inflammation, but since coming back, he's given up zero earned runs in four out of five home starts.
The Reds might need some home cooking — literally. Reds manager Terry Francona knows all the tricks to guide a team through the postseason, so don't be surprised if he makes a huge pot of Cincinnati chili in the pregame clubhouse or leads a team viewing of The Wizard of Oz ("There's no place like home, there's no place like home") in the hotel ballroom on Tuesday afternoon. Whatever it takes to get that home pitching going.
Will the Cubs be able to slug their way past the contact approach of the Padres?
This Cubs team can't match the postseason experience of the Padres, but what they can do is hit the ever-loving crap out of the ball. Craig Counsell's club was third in the National League in homers, fourth in total bases and third in runs.
Contrast that with the Padres, who struck out fewer than all but two teams in the league. San Diego puts the ball in play, but only the Cardinals and Pirates hit fewer home runs all year. Their contact numbers didn't really make them an elite on-base team though, as their .321 is just a hair above the Cubs' .320.
Interestingly enough, the Cubs' pitchers don't strike out many batters at all, but the Padres do, especially when their elite bullpen arms like Mason Miller, Jeremiah Estrada and Robert Suarez come into the game. Chicago will also be without star rookie Cade Horton after he fractured a rib last week.
This series is going to come down to both teams trying to impose their will on the other. The Cubs will be swinging for the fences when they're up, and if they can get a hold of a few, that will probably be enough to win, especially with the bleacher creatures of Wrigley Field losing their minds. The Cubs will pitch to contact, the Padres will oblige, and we'll see how many balls get through Chicago's excellent defense. The Cubs need Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong to rediscover their pop, and Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch to continue their recent tears, as they've combined for nine homers in their last 10 games.
Which ace will earn their money, Garrett Crochet or Max Fried?
In a best-of-three series, the team that wins the first game is much more likely to advance. Red Sox-Yankees was already going to be the marquee attraction of this round, but given the star-studded pitching matchup in Game 1, all eyes will definitely be on Yankee Stadium on Tuesday evening.
Garrett Crochet and Max Fried signed contracts this past offseason for a combined 14 years and $388 million. Each one justified their deals by pitching like a bona fide ace, but the real test of their worth is yet to come. This is the exact moment both were paid the big bucks for, to take down their team's hated rival in an all-important playoff game, and they have to go against each other to do it.
The Red Sox dominated the Yankees 9-4 in the season series, and they were 4-0 when Crochet was on the mound. The hard-throwing lefty racked up 39 strikeouts in four starts, pitching at least six innings in each one, but he wasn't completely unhittable, as New York got to him for five runs in one outing and three in another.
Fried took the mound three times against Boston, and though he gave up a grand total of four earned runs, he was just 1-1 with one no-decision since he got very little run support.
The Yankees made it to the World Series last year, and they know what it takes to get back. The Red Sox turned their season around after trading Rafael Devers and entrusting their uber-talented up-and-coming prospects to carry them. They're too young to know what they don't know. We'll see if that's a good thing or a bad thing.
Is Tarik Skubal's brilliance enough to reverse the momentum in Guardians-Tigers?
In terms of trajectory, the Guardians are like a rocket blasting upwards through the atmosphere, while the Tigers are more like a bird that suffered a heart attack midflight and stuck to the ship as they careened lifelessly toward earth.
The Tigers once led the Al Central by 15.5 games but finished a game back, which made their collapse and the Guardians' rise one the largest blown division lead in baseball history.
There's a saying in baseball that momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher. That's about to be put to the test, because Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in the game and the soon to be back-to-back American League Cy Young winner is going to attempt to save the Tigers' season against the hottest team in baseball.
There's no pitcher in baseball you'd rather have out there with a chance to right the ship, but even Skubal wasn't immune to the Guardians' voodoo when he took the mound against them just over a week ago. He came out on the losing end of that one after he jump-started their sixth inning by bizarrely attempting to throw a ball through his legs, and though the Guardians didn't get the ball out of the infield all inning, they still put up three runs to take a lead they wouldn't relinquish. Skubal threw a wild pitch in the inning to add to his misfortune, and he was clearly rattled later when he hit David Fry in the face with a pitch.
Skubal wasn't able to stop the Tigers' bleeding in that game, and despite his best efforts in a one-run, six-inning start five days earlier, Detroit lost to Cleveland in that one, too.
If Skubal can pitch one of his typical gems in Game 1, the Tigers will be right back where they should have been before suffering their epic collapse. If he doesn't, this series will be as good as over.