Day one of the 2025 postseason is in the books, and already we've gotten some instantly iconic finishes and some fan bases thrown into existential crisis. That's the reality in our brave new playoff world: In a best-of-three Wild Card series, you're just one loss away from facing an early elimination.
Such is the challenge now for the Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds, all. of whom lost Game 1 on Tuesday. And history, though limited, is not on their side here: In three years of the best-of-three Wild Card format, no team has lost the opener and gone on to win the series — an ominous 0-12 record.
Of course, they say that records are made to be broken. So, in the interest of optimism, which Game 1 loser should feel the best about their chances of rallying over the next two days? Let's dive in.
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4. Cincinnati Reds
As someone who thought the Reds had at least a little bit of upset appeal entering their series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, this one hurts. Cincinnati was always going to have to pitch its way to victory here, given how inconsistent their lineup has been all year; once Hunter Greene laid an egg and dug his team an early 5-0 hole, that was pretty much all she wrote.
Now the Reds are throwing likely some combination of Zack Littell and Nick Lodolo in Game 2, while the Dodgers counter with ... Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the guy many thought Dave Roberts should've handed the ball to in Game 1. It seems awfully hard to believe that Terry Francona's bunch will fair much better offensively than it did on Tuesday night, and equally hard to believe that they're equipped to win a pitcher's duel here. Oh, and if Cincy somehow does survive to force a Game 3, they'll be turning to a pitcher in Andrew Abbott who has a 4.21 ERA since the start of August. Good luck and godspeed.
3. San Diego Padres
The good news for San Diego is that the Cubs' rotation is in a bit of disarray at the moment. Chicago is set to use Andrew Kittredge as an opener in Game 2 before handing the ball to lefty Shota Imanaga, who's given up at least three earned runs in nine of his last 12 starts. (ERA over that span: 5.17, with a 5.42 FIP as the home-run ball has come back to haunt him once again.)
The bad news, though, is that the Padres are facing some pitching questions of their own: Game 2 starter Dylan Cease — who was drafted by the Cubs in the sixth round back in 2014 before being shipped across town to the White Sox in the Jose Quintana trade — has been very hard to trust all season long, missing the strike zone even more often than he misses bats. If Good Cease shows up, San Diego is in business, especially with that loaded bullpen looming. But he's not the guy I'd want to be leaning on in an elimination game right now, and this Padres offense is too bereft of pop right now to put a ton of faith in.
2. New York Yankees
Like the team ahead of them, New York has the benefit of trying to win two games in a row at home. Also like the team ahead of them, they probably have the starting pitching edge from here on out, with Carlos Rodon getting the ball against Brayan Bello (who's looked increasingly shaky of late) in Game 2 and a battle of rookies on tap in Game 3 between Cam Schlittler and Connelly Early.
On paper, you'd sure take the Yankees' lineup over Boston's, too, at least as currently constituted. With Garrett Crochet out of the picture, it's not too hard to imagine the Yankees simply being the better team over the next two days.
Of course, if the game were played on paper, Aaron Boone's club probably would've waltzed to a division title this year. There's reason for Yankees fans to still believe, but there's also a giant body of evidence suggesting that this team will just find ways to make losing plays against its biggest rivals at every opportunity. Apologies for engaging in some vibes-based analysis here, but I just can't bring myself to put them at No. 1 here.
1. Cleveland Guardians
This has as much to do with who the Guardians are playing as it does Cleveland itself. The silver lining from a heartbreaking 2-1 loss in Game 1 is that the Guards won't have to see Tarik Skubal again in this series. Game 2 starter Casey Mize has been pitching pretty well as of late, but he certainly isn't Skubal, and Cleveland has to feel like they enter Wednesday with the pitching advantage now that Tanner Bibee is finally starting to look like the Cy Young candidate we expected to see at the start of the year.
And really, there's just very little separation between these two teams right now, especially when Skubal's out of the equation. Neither offense is going to put up many crooked numbers; these are going to be low-scoring games that come down to who blinks first in high-leverage spots. You'd probably rather have Bibee and Slade Cecconi (plus Parker Messick and Joey Cantillo waiting in the wings) than Mize and Jack Flaherty, and it's really not all that difficult to imagine Cleveland working some more of its Guards Ball magic against a team it owned during the regular season.