Just once, the Toronto Blue Jays would love to be the bride rather than the bridesmaid in free agency. First it was Shohei Ohtani two years ago, when everyone got duped thinking he was on a plane to Toronto, only for him to end up in Los Angeles. Then it happened again, with the Jays willing to spend big on Juan Soto, only to have the Mets be the choice. So you would understand the hesitancy among fans to fully invest their emotions into a rumored pursuit of Kyle Tucker this offseason.
But maybe they should. This isn't the same iteration of the Blue Jays. Not only are they coming off of a World Series appearance, one that they arguably should've won, but they've got a core to build around Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a veteran pitching staff, and young up-and-comers such as Trey Yesavage and Ernie Clement, among others. And at the end of the day, their pursuit of Tucker feels different than Ohtani or Soto. This is a contender trying to get even better, not an organization trying to buy its way into contention.
Blue Jays are considered the early favorite for Kyle Tucker
ESPN insider Jeff Passan gave Blue Jays fans all the reason they should need to believe that the Tucker pursuit in free agency could and should be different. He referred to Toronto as "the favorite" to sign the outfielder this offseason, according to other executives.
Perhaps just as importantly, the case for the other leading candidates according to Passan don't seem nearly as strong. Tucker was mentioned seemingly as a backup plan to Kyle Schwarber for the Philadelphia Phillies. The Los Angeles Dodgers don't appear inclined to make another high-dollar, long-term commitment to a free agent like Tucker. And the New York duo of the Mets and Yankees appear to only be mentioned for the simple reason that Tucker wants to play for a winner, and both teams are aggressively pursuing success.
While there are other teams that could always get involved, don't the Blue Jays simply check all of the boxes in this case? They could use an upgrade in the outfield to make Anthony Santander or Nathan Lukes more of platoon or depth pieces. They need another elite power bat who can also hit for average in the lineup, especially in the twilight of George Springer's career. Toronto has never been shy about their willingness to spend top dollar. And on top of that, if Tucker wants to play for a winner, this is the reigning AL pennant winner.
Again, though, the biggest factor is the winning and the situation. The Blue Jays aren't in the same position as teams of previous offseasons. Thinking about adding Tucker doesn't mean thinking about what the Blue Jays could potentially be — it's about knowing how good they already are, and how much better Toronto would be inserting him in the lineup for roughly the next decade.
Blue Jays can afford to be aggressive, especially in a less lucrative market
It's also worth mentioning that the Blue Jays might actually want to spend more this offseason, not just because of their World Series appearance, but because of theirs and MLB's situations. While the impending 2027 lockout does complicate matters, sure, everything else lines up for Toronto to be aggressive this offseason as they find themselves in a luxurious spot.
The free agency market itself should be where that conversation starts. While Tucker's new deal could be in the $400 million range of total value, that's pennies in comparison to the $700+ million that Ohtani and Soto signed for. No one is touching those figures in this offseason's free agency class, not even Tucker, so the Blue Jays wouldn't be paying a record-setting price to make such a big splash.
More than that for Toronto specifically, however, the Blue Jays would be wise to make such a move for the future of their lineup.
We already know that Bo Bichette leaving the Jays is a realistic possibility. To be clear, so is the shortstop returning to the team he's spent his entire career with to this point, but it's something that Ross Atkins and the Toronto front office have to account for. Just as importantly, though, the likes of Springer and Daulton Varsho in the field, along with Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber in the rotation, will all be free agents after next season.
Not only does that free up the financials a bit to have long-term money to pay Tucker and others, but it also highlights the need to spend now to make sure that those impending or possible departures don't turn into glaring holes on this roster. With Springer and Varsho, specifically, that makes Tucker even more valuable for this organization.
As you start to see the full scope of the Blue Jays and Tucker, though, it's clear that the opportunity is there, and it's far more realistic than it has been in years past when free agency pursuits have turned belly up for this team. This isn't Toronto setting itself up for another rug pull. Instead, it's setting them up to stay in contention for years to come, and it's not just realistic that it might happen, it's likely.