The World Series is in full swing, but it's never too early to get a head start on Hot Stove season. And this year, there's one clear and obvious top prize: former Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, set to hit the market after another All-Star season on the North Side.
Tucker might not be Juan Soto, but he's one of the 10 or so best hitters in the sport, capable of doing just about everything well at the plate, and he won't turn 29 until January. That's the sort of player who inspires historic bidding wars, and it's no surprise that early estimates have Tucker coming in somewhere in the neighborhood of $400 million.
Of course, Tucker can't be expected to match what Soto got last offseason. But what about the next outfielder up on the list? Sure, Tucker doesn't have the numbers that Aaron Judge does, but in this brave new world, any amount of money seems at least plausible. After all, it only takes one uniquely desperate bidder to make history. And the market just might provide one of those.
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The richest outfield contracts in MLB: Where could Kyle Tucker fit in?
To figure out what an eventual contract for Tucker might look like, it's first worth looking at the outfield market as a whole. Below are the 10 largest long-term contracts (five or more years) for outfielders right now, sorted by AAV:
Player | Team | Total contract (AAV) | Year signed |
|---|---|---|---|
Juan Soto | New York Mets | 15 years, $765 million ($51 million) | 2025 |
Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | Nine years, $360 million ($40 million) | 2023 |
Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | 12 years, $426.5 million ($35.5 million) | 2019 |
Mookie Betts* | Los Angeles Dodgers | 12 years, $365 million ($30.4 million) | 2020 |
Christian Yelich | Milwaukee Brewers | Nine years, $215 million ($26.9 million) | 2020 |
Kris Bryant | Colorado Rockies | Seven years, $182 million ($26 million) | 2022 |
George Springer | Toronto Blue Jays | Six years, $150 million ($25 million) | 2021 |
Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | 14 years, $340 million ($24.3 million) | 2021 |
Brandon Nimmo | New York Mets | Eight years, $162 million ($20.25 million) | 2023 |
Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Six years, $115 million ($19.17 million) | 2023 |
*While Betts is now a shortstop in Los Angeles, he was still a right fielder when he signed his mega-extension ahead of the 2020 season
Obviously, Juan Soto's massive 15-year, $765 million contract reset both the outfield market and the economics of the sport this past winter, clearing the previous AAV record by more than $10 million. That mark was held by Soto's former teammate, Aaron Judge, who re-signed with the New York Yankees ahead of the 2023 season on a nine-year, $360 million deal.
Those are two of just four deals with an AAV north of $30 million, with Mike Trout and Mookie Betts the other two. The Betts comp is an interesting one: Mookie was a year younger than Tucker will be this offseason, but while he was certainly a better fielder, Tucker has the more impressive offensive track record. Combine that with how the market has grown of late, and how few position-player options there are this winter, and I think he'll easily outpace that number.
The question is: by how much? $35 million seems well within reach, but could he possibly catch Judge? He's almost two years younger than Judge was when he got the bag from New York, but he's also not in Judge's universe as a hitter. (This is no shade to Tucker; there are only a handful of players in the history of the sport who are in the same universe as the numbers Judge has put up over the last few years.)
Given that, and given the unique leverage Judge had over the Yankees that winter, I have a hard time seeing him topping that $40 million mark unless he forgoes significant length to take, say, a five- or six-year deal. Then again,
Which teams could overpay to land Kyle Tucker in free agency?
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies were already set for a pivotal offseason, having flamed out in the NLDS for the second consecutive year and facing the departures of stars like Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suarez in free agency. And then Dave Dombrowski unwittingly (or was it?) insulted the face of the franchise and kicked off a round of Bryce Harper trade rumors, and everything got ratcheted up another notch entirely.
There might not be a single team in the league more in need of a vibe shift right now. And it just so happens that finding a corner outfielder remains a need for this team, with Harrison Bader and Max Kepler off to the open market and Nick Castellanos almost certainly not long for this roster. John Middleton has the money, even if he's been too reluctant to spend it in recent years.
Why not go big for a bat like Tucker, someone who can hopefully help this lineup be a bit more competitive come October? Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo deserve an all-in push, and if Tucker goes elsewhere, it's hard to figure out where a significant change might come from.
Los Angeles Dodgers
"Desperate" will never describe the Dodgers, who are positioned to have the most talented roster in baseball for years to come. But Andrew Friedman has never been one to shy away from a player he wants, and Tucker could be the ideal solution to the outfield problem that has plagued L.A. (well, as much as anything plagues this franchise) since the Michael Conforto signing went bust.
If the Dodgers decide that a Tucker deal is the best thing for their chances of winning the World Series in 2026 and beyond, they'll do it. Money is no object, especially not with the money train that is Shohei Ohtani rolling right along. It wouldn't be out of desperation, but the Dodgers might hand Tucker something akin to Judge money just because they can, and because they love to move quickly and not mess around in a protracted bidding war.
New York Yankees
Is it particularly likely that the Yankees pay both Judge and Tucker roughly $40 million per year? Of course not; George Steinbrenner isn't around anymore, after all, and his sons have proven far more ... we'll be nice and call it "fiscally prudent". But with Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham hitting free agency, this team needs at least one outfielder, and Tucker is far and away the best one available — not to mention a dream fit for Yankee Stadium.
After another disappointing playoff exit, New York has to be sick of coming up short on the biggest stages. At a certain point, the money cannon is going to seem awfully tempting, and there's no better target for it than Tucker. The Yankees have other needs to fill, but there isn't really another free agent that makes nearly as much sense given their roster needs and the talent on the market. So why not go as big as it takes? You are the New York Yankees, after all.