Why the Cubs were right not to go the extra mile in this season's World Series pursuit

When the Chicago Cubs decided to trade for Kyle Tucker, a superstar on an expiring contract, the message was abundantly clear - the organization was ready to win right now. Teams don't trade what the Cubs did for a rental if they weren't set on winning right now. Given the organization's desire to win in 2025, it was frankly shocking to see how Jed Hoyer navigated the trade deadline.

The Cubs acquired a slew of rentals headlined by Willi Castro, Michael Soroka and Andrew Kittredge. By making these deals, they did improve their current roster, but only marginally. They did not acquire a single player anyone would deem a difference-maker or close to it, which was a frustrating reality for Cubs fans.

At the time of the deadline, the Cubs' approach was really tough to justify. In hindsight, now that we know what teams were asking the Cubs to give up in exchange for true difference-makers based on Patrick Mooney's latest reporting for The Athletic ($), it's easy to see why Hoyer didn't make any splashes.

"Outside of a small inner circle, no one got to see the full array of options presented to the Chicago Cubs at Major League Baseball’s trade deadline. But club officials say rival teams constantly asked about Cade Horton and Matt Shaw, who are already key contributors to a real playoff contender," Mooney wrote.

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Asking price for Cubs deadline splashes was enormous

You read that right. Club officials were constantly asking for both Cade Horton and Matt Shaw, two of the organization's top prospects entering the season, both of whom are making a major impact for the big league team in the second half. To make matters worse, the asking price was actually higher than just one of these players.

"The general framework also did not form around a potential one-for-one deal at the July 31 deadline. To acquire an established starting pitcher under multiple years of club control, the Cubs contend they would’ve had to trade a National League Rookie of the Year candidate plus some of their best prospects. That concept was a nonstarter."

We're talking about a package starting with Horton and a top prospect like Owen Caissie or Moises Ballesteros for a difference-maker. That is a ton, and a package that the Cubs would immediately come to regret.

Both Horton and Shaw will not only help the Cubs long-term, but they're both key contributors right now.

Cade Horton has filled the void for what the Cubs were looking for

The Cubs' primary goal at the deadline should've been to add a frontline starter. By adding Soroka, a No. 5 starter at best in a good rotation, they failed to do that spectacularly. With that being said, though, Horton appears ready to fill that void internally. Just look at how he stacks up against the rest of the National League since the start of July.

Since the start of July, Horton has a lower ERA than Paul Skenes, a lower FIP than Logan Webb, a higher fWAR than Zac Gallen and more wins than any Milwaukee Brewers starter not named Freddy Peralta. He's been one of, if not the best pitcher in the National League.

Guys like Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore are obviously more accomplished and might be better long-term, but Horton has out-pitched both by a sizable margin in the second half. The team has gone 7-3 in his 10 starts since July 1, and they've gone 14-16 when anyone else pitches. He's been that big of a difference-maker.

Matt Shaw has been one of the few bright spots in a floundering Cubs offense

The Cubs' offense has struggled mightily since the All-Star break but Matt Shaw, a player whom Chicago appeared to be ready to replace at third base, has been crushing the baseball. The 23-year-old has slashed .282/.322/.627 in the second half with nine home runs and 20 RBI. He hit just two home runs in the entire first half, and he's performed like an elite hitter in the NL since the break.

Shaw is one of 105 position players with at least 110 plate appearances in the second half. Here's where he ranks in some key statistics.

Shaw still hits eighth or ninth in the Cubs' order regularly, but he's been one of the best hitters in the National League since the All-Star break, particularly in the power department. He has more home runs since the break than Freddie Freeman, a higher slugging percentage than Shohei Ohtani, a higher OPS than Juan Soto, a higher wRC+ than Rafael Devers and a higher fWAR than Bryce Harper.

It's no longer a small sample size. Shaw has had 118 plate appearances in the second half, and he isn't slowing down. The start to his season and MLB career were brutal, but much like his superstar teammate, Pete Crow-Armstrong, he's come into his own with reps. His bat being what it's been for over a month now paired with his elite glove and high-end speed has made Shaw one of the 15 most valuable players in the NL since the All-Star break.

Sure, adding Eugenio Suarez's power bat would've been cool, but Shaw has been more prolific than Suarez in that department since the break, and he's more well-rounded as a player. Cubs fans weren't thrilled when the organization passed on acquiring Suarez, but Hoyer sticking with Shaw has proven to have been the right move.

Cubs still could've done more at deadline than they did

The Cubs were absolutely right to hold onto Horton and Shaw, two players set to contribute in a major way down the stretch and in the seasons to come. With that being said, the Cubs still could've done more than they did.

You're telling me that to get Shane Bieber, a player eventually dealt for an intriguing, yet not Top-100 prospect, the Cubs would've had to give up Shaw or Horton? There's no way that's the case. Bieber looks like an ace as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. Even for a reliever like Tyler Rogers, he might've cost more than the Cubs might've liked as a rental, but he's an upgrade over what they got.

The Cubs made the right decision to hold onto guys like Horton and Shaw, but they could've done more to put themselves in the best position to win it all in 2025.