Cubs' huge bet on Matt Shaw threatens to cost them everything

Chicago passed on Eugenio Suarez, and now all the pressure is on their rookie third baseman.
Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers | Patrick McDermott/GettyImages

The Eugenio Suarez sweepstakes finally came to an end in the dark of night, and in the end, it was the Seattle Mariners who managed to pry the star third baseman away from the Arizona Diamondbacks. For all the talk of what Arizona was demanding in return for two months of Suarez's services, the price wound up being ... almost reasonable: Tyler Locklear has been scorching-hot at Triple-A this summer, but he's still a right-handed first baseman with questions about his approach, and Seattle managed to hang on to its best pitching prospects as well.

Which should raise some tough questions for the teams who missed out, none more so than the Chicago Cubs. Third base has been the obvious hole in this lineup for months now, and it's no wonder that Jed Hoyer reportedly had his sights set on Suarez in the days and weeks leading up to Thursday's trade deadline. And yet, despite absolutely having the prospect depth to match or exceed Seattle's offer, the opportunity came and went.

Maybe Hoyer has bigger plans in the works for Thursday. Maybe he'll put those savings toward landing, say, Sandy Alcantara or Dylan Cease, and all will be forgiven. No matter what happens between now and 6 p.m. ET, though, what's clear is that Chicago felt more than comfortable letting embattled rookie Matt Shaw sink or swim at the hot corner. And that bet might be the thing that makes or breaks the team's shot at a World Series.

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Cubs gave Matt Shaw new life, but can he take advantage?

This isn't the first time the Cubs gave serious thought to bringing in a star to supplant Shaw at third base; Chicago was one of the finalists in the Alex Bregman sweepstakes over the winter, only to lose out to the Boston Red Sox at the last moment. Instead, it was Shaw who started on Opening Day — a decision that proved disastrous after it quickly became clear that he simply wasn't ready to handle big-league pitching.

Shaw posted a dismal .535 OPS over his first 18 games, and was promptly demoted to Triple-A. To his credit, he didn't let that discourage him: He raked in Iowa, earned his way back to the Majors after just a few weeks and has stayed in Chicago ever since. And it's worth noting that he has made real strides at the plate, slashing .371/.389/.800 since the All-Star break. This was one of the top prospects in baseball for a reason, and his obvious physical gifts and his track record in the Minors have earned him a longer leash.

Unfortunately, the Cubs' own timeline might not be so forgiving. The 2025 season is massively important for this team; it's the only guaranteed year Chicago has with Kyle Tucker, and major pieces like Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Nico Hoerner are set to hit free agency themselves in a year or two. Hoyer doesn't have the luxury of letting his prized young infielder settle into life in the Show.

And while Shaw has made strides as a hitter, plenty of questions still remain. His batted-ball metrics still show a hitter who struggles to do real damage when he makes contact, and who still struggles to pull the ball in the air consistently. Maybe the Cubs think he's about to make that leap, or maybe they just think they have enough offensive firepower to focus their attention elsewhere (namely, the rotation). But Chicago's lineup now has a clear weakness for opponents to exploit, a weakness that it was in the team's power to address. Only time will tell whether Hoyer will regret not doing so.