Scott Boras was back in full form on Wednesday and the MLB GM Meetings, giving his annual pun-filled press conference and, naturally, hyping up his free agent clients. One of the bells of the ball in that regard was his "Ice Man", Cody Bellinger. The Yankees star and former MVP is set to command a hectic market in free agency, without question, but Boras took an interesting strategy in talking up his guy, namely by seemingly taking a shot at the other top-tier outfielder on the market, Kyle Tucker.
Let's be clear, Boras didn't once mention Tucker by name. That, of course, likely stems from the fact that Tucker is represented by Casey Close and not Boras. However, even if he didn't mention the outfielder who was an All-Star for the Cubs last season following seven years with the Houston Astros, he most certainly alluded to him — and put him down to help prop up Bellinger.
As Bob Nightengale of USA Today noted, Boras went as far as to call Bellinger "the only 5-tool outfielders on the free agent market", while also noting that the star outfielder has only played in the three biggest markets — Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York — in his career to this point.
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Scott Boras either took a shot at Kyle Tucker or forgot about him
With all due respect to Bellinger, who's a great player and should be in line for a $200+ million contract this offseason (or thereabouts), Boras' comments couldn't possibly be more off base. Because not only is Tucker a 5-tool player, but he's actually been simply a better outfielder than Bellinger in his career, and is a year younger on top of that.
From 2018-25 for both players, Tucker trails in almost every counting stat. That's somewhat due to injuries that have led to Tucker ultimately playing nearly 250 fewer games than Bellinger over that span (most of which were in his first two MLB seasons with Houston, which started with year two for Bellinger). However, Tucker has simply been better across the board with every other metric.
Tucker has the higher batting average, on-base-percentage, slugging percentage, and obviously OPS over that span. He's also been a four-time All-Star to Bellinger's one appearance, both have each won a Gold Glove, and both have a pair of Silver Sluggers to their credit. And it's also worth noting in the 5-tool conversation that, despite playing in so many fewer games, Tucker actually does have the lead in stolen bases in comparison to Bellinger, 119-to-94. The end result, Tucker has actually been worth 0.8 more bWAR over that time span than Bellinger, again despite playing in drastically fewer games.
Boras at least had good reason for hyping up Bellinger
If it sounds like I'm splitting hairs here, it's because I am — but only because Boras made it sound like Bellinger is in a class of his own, when that's clearly not the case. At the same time, it's fully understandable where the super-agent is coming from in this instance. We're talking about the top two outfielders on the market, separated by only one year in age.
But the big difference right now is the deals that the two are expected to sign, which favor Tucker substantially. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel projected Tucker to sign an 11-year, $418 million deal this offseason, which is $38 million in average annual value. Bellinger, meanwhile, is projected to receive a shorter-term deal for less AAV at six years, $165 million ($27.5 million per season).
Why wouldn't Boras do whatever is in his power, particularly in the public eye, to try and close the gap on those numbers? He's infamous in the business for this exact reason — he knows how to work teams, sell his clients to teams, and then cash in, which he obviously directly benefits from. Trying to put Bellinger in a tier that includes only him among MLB outfielders simply makes sense there, even if his assessment is largely incorrect.
At the same time, though, while both free agents are going to be highly coveted by any team with deep enough pockets because of the value they could bring to a team as a pair of 5-tool players, the simple truth of the matter is that both come with pretty notable risks.
As mentioned, Tucker has dealt with injuries in his career, but especially as of late. He missed half of the season with the Astros in 2024, then played through a wrist injury while also missing time with the Cubs this past year. Those durability concerns are going to be brought up and, while they won't stop him from getting a monster payday, they absolutely have to be noted.
Bellinger might be the more interesting case in this, though, because his track record simply isn't as rock-solid as Tucker's has been over their respective careers.
Yes, we watched Bellinger win Rookie of the Year with the Dodgers in 2017 and then NL MVP two years later. And he was also electric with the Yankees this past season as one of the most reliable pieces in pinstripes. But don't forget the fact that he also hasn't been the model of consistency by any stretch of the imagination.
In the three seasons following his MVP-winning 2019 campaign, Bellinger produced a total of 1.3 fWAR with a slash line of .203/.272/.376/.648. Obviously, those days are a memory of the past with what he's done the past three years, and I'm not at all saying he's going to regress to those levels ever again. At the same time, that has to be a consideration for teams aiming to sign Bellinger this season.
Don't get it twisted, I'd still take either one of these players on any team willing to spend and in need of outfield help. They are the top of the free agency class, but this isn't two can't-miss players without some semblance of risk. But any team that does sign Tucker or Bellinger will be ending up with a 5-tool player, no matter what Boras has to say on the matter.