Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Atlanta Braves are once again relying on veteran left-handed ace Chris Sale to anchor their rotation as they chase the NL East title.
- Recent performance metrics show Sale has regained elite velocity on his fastball while maintaining exceptional control against top-lineup hitters.
- This resurgence comes at a critical juncture for Atlanta, with the division race tightening and postseason implications hanging in the balance.
Chris Sale: the human embodiment of “it’s so over/we’re so back.”
After it was so over for Sale’s tenure on the Chicago White Sox, we were so back on the Boston Red Sox, especially in 2018, when Sale destroyed everyone and won the World Series. Since then, by my calculations, it has been so over for Chris Sale six times. Four were injuries he suffered on the Red Sox between 2019 and 2023, leading then-Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom to ask who had the Chris Sale Voodoo Doll.
The fifth time was when Boston finally gave up, trading Sale to the Atlanta Braves for Vaughn Grissom, but then we were so back in 2024; Sale won the Cy Young Award and led the NL in wins. It was so over for a sixth time in 2025 — well, not completely over, but he did hit the 60-day IL again with a freak rib injury and wasn’t as good as he was in 2024. The Braves also missed the playoffs.
Is Chris Sale back to being a reliable ace for the Braves?
But now we are so back. Again. For the third time? Fourth time? Sale is, once again, shredding, had recorded three wins in four starts and has been a big reason the Braves are once again atop the NL East. He just threw his hardest pitch of the 2020s.
Chris Sale is a true marvel. At 37, he's throwing as hard as he did throughout his 20s -- and tonight, his 99.4-mph fastball against Rhys Hoskins tied for his fastest pitch since 2019. He has thrown five shutout against Cleveland as the Braves look to extend their NL East lead.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) April 13, 2026
Unlike when I wrote about Mason Miller and Jordan Walker — two statcast darlings whose advanced stats suggest we’re watching Nolan Ryan (if he was a closer) and prime Giancarlo Stanton with wheels — Sale’s early 2026 numbers suggest he is basically who he was in 2023. The one notable improvement? Fastball and offspeed value metrics.
Chris Sale is having a great season, but his statcast numbers are basically worse across the board from 2025. Notably better, though, are fastball and offspeed value and velo pic.twitter.com/FCAVOFiNGu
— Oliver Fox (@oliversfox) April 13, 2026
For a pitcher who used to rely on his sinker so much that he basically didn't throw a four-seam fastball, this is encouraging. During his peak on the Red Sox, Sale used his slider and four-seam fastball to tremendous effect and has thus become more efficient with the sinker and changeup. It seems like that's working again in 2026.
Sale is also throwing his four seamer at the highest rate since 2021 and is relying much less on his changeup, which has actually made it more efficient pic.twitter.com/cWOjYlMy0h
— Oliver Fox (@oliversfox) April 13, 2026
Digging into Sale’s box scores from this season also shows just how good he’s been at avoiding extra-base hits; he’s pitched 22 innings — the most in the NL — yet surrendered just two doubles and no triples, but has given up four home runs. Not super shocking considering that many innings, but they’ve mostly not mattered; in Sale’s one loss, he gave up two bombs. The other two were inconsequential solo shots in blowout wins.
Sale doesn’t have particularly impressive whiff or strikeout numbers and is basically average in all major statcast categories other than hard hit rate, which is one of the reasons he has avoided most damaging contact. In his fourth start and third win on Sunday, he gave up eight hits but only one earned run — a solo home run.
It's possible Sale is getting lucky in 2026, but I don't think that's fair
You could take this information in one of two ways: first, it is possible that Sale is actually just a middling starter who has an artificially inflated win total for no other reason than he has gotten really lucky. None of his tracking data so far suggests he has the kind of swing-and-miss ability he showed the last two seasons, and Sale has much higher expected ERA (3.88) than his actual figure (3.27).
At least, that’s what you would say if you wanted to lie with statistics, because that is actually not that big of a difference in xERA and actual ERA relative to the rest of the league; Sale is 58th in xERA/ERA difference among pitchers with a favorable change (min 50 batters faced). So yes, he has been lucky with avoiding earned runs, but he hasn’t been that lucky.
Meanwhile, most of his solid-but-not-amazing statcast metrics are batter-influenced and could be a function of such a small sample size. But hitters have nothing to do with improved fastball velocity, which is tantalizing — if Sale is actually throwing harder than he was the last two years, that will almost certainly lead to favorable statistical outcomes over time.
It is also true that Sale is a tremendous situational pitcher. He is a 16-year pro who has faced over 8400 batters. He has always been excellent at avoiding loud and damaging contact, and has the experience to turn tense, bases-loaded jams into wins with a timely ground ball or always-great pitch selection.
Sure, Sale has been somewhat lucky this season, but that is not a particularly compelling explanation for his success. With his savvy, veteran skills, apparent good health and a somehow-faster fastball, I’d bet on Sale being near the top of the MLB in wins once again. And I’m a Red Sox fan with no reason to be happy about this. You can trust me.