Yankees fans might not like what Ryan McMahon’s Yankee Stadium stats say

New York's deadline acquisition might not like hitting in Yankee Stadium.
St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies | Justin Edmonds/GettyImages

The New York Yankees made an early splash at this year’s trade deadline, landing third baseman Ryan McMahon from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Minor League pitchers Griffin Herring and Josh Grosz (their No. 8- and No. 21-ranked prospects respectively).

A lot of Yankee fans were probably hoping for Eugenio Suárez, who has hit 36 home runs so far this year, but McMahon is an accomplished power hitter in his own right. At 30 years old, he’s already had five 20-homer seasons, and definitely would’ve had another if there was a full season in 2020. Not to mention he’s a better defender than Suárez, so it might prove to be the smart move.

That is, as long as he doesn't wind up hating his new home park. The cruel twist is that McMahon would actually have the fewest home runs at Yankee Stadium of any big-league stadium.

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Stats don't paint a pretty picture for Ryan McMahon at Yankee Stadium

According to Baseball Savant, McMahon's expected home run total at Yankee Stadium is only 13. Amazingly, his shortest home run this year was a 392-foot fly to left center. That shot would’ve been a home run at all 30 ball parks. 

But if McMahon is launching the ball so far, how does he lose three home runs by playing in Yankee Stadium? Baseball Savant’s expected home run statistic doesn’t just take launch angle, exit velocity and ballpark dimensions into account, but also environmental factors. And of course, nowhere has a better environment for hitting than Colorado and its thin air.

A left-handed hitter, McMahon has a pretty even distribution in his spray chart. Six of his 16 home runs this year have been left of dead center. Now that he’s at sea level, where the ball doesn’t carry as much, McMahon might want to change his approach slightly and focus on pulling the ball towards the short porch in right field.

Then again, he's been coached by the Rockies for his entire career to date, so maybe a change of scenery will wind up helping more than it hurts. The Yankees have access to all the data you could possibly ask for, and they felt comfortable about McMahon's chances in the Bronx. He's hitting the ball as hard as ever this year, and he has an OPS north of .800 since the start of May. Plus, he just needs to be passable at the plate with his usual sterling defense to be a massive upgrade at third for New York.