The Moonshot: Roki Sasaki regret, MLB free agency losers, Robert Murray's notebook
Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.
Which team isn’t Roki Sasaki considering that he could come to regret?
Zachary Rotman: I have absolutely no idea why the Seattle Mariners are not among Roki Sasaki’s finalists. If his goal is to become the best pitcher he can be, why not Seattle? The Mariners have developed four of the five members of their star-studded rotation, they play at the most pitcher-friendly park in the majors per Baseball Savant’s Park Factor, and they play in a relatively weak AL West. The Mariners probably won’t win a World Series with the organization (for whatever reason) refusing to upgrade their offense, but they should be very competitive in a weak AL, and can give Sasaki arguably the best chance to cash in financially long-term. Plus, it’s not as if the Mariners don’t have a rich and successful history with Japanese talent.
Chris Landers: The Giants have to deal with a loaded division, and Zach beat me to the Mariners, so I’ll opt for the other AL team with a strong track record of pitching development and a very pitcher-friendly park: What about the Cleveland Guardians? All this team has done over the past few years is churn out homegrown starters, often using other teams’ cast-offs to do so, and they have a solid young core in place to contend for the foreseeable future. The AL Central has been weak for seemingly a decade-plus now, and hey, Cleveland really is a far cooler city than it gets credit for!
Terrence Jordan: I wish we would just dispense with the formalities and fit Sasaki for Dodger blue already. Nobody else should be getting their hopes up, especially the Blue Jays, who have to feel like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football at this point. I don’t think Sasaki will regret joining the defending champs and living in Hollywood, but if there’s another team he could have found happiness on, I’d go with the Mets. Juan Soto’s signing has signaled a new day in Flushing, and Sasaki would already have a new best friend in Kodai Senga.
Cody Williams: This feels perhaps a bit off-the-radar, but the Baltimore Orioles would’ve made total sense for Roki Sasaki. Think about it; you’re talking about a team with arguably the deepest and most promising young core in baseball that is in dire straits in terms of their pitching need in the rotation with Corbin Burnes is gone after one year. Sasaki would fit the youth movement at Camden Yards like a glove while also being a bankable ace that the O’s need every five days. I get the East Coast vs. West Coast dynamic seemingly at play, but the Orioles just struck me as a seamless fit for the righty.
Robert Murray: I’ll go with the Mets. It’s a huge market, an opportunity to win and market yourself with a team with World Series aspirations. I thought the Mets could sneak their way into the list of finalists, but it turns out they were among the first to (reportedly) be ruled out. I think they deserved more consideration.
Outside of the Blue Jays, which MLB fanbase should be most frustrated with their near misses the last few winters?
Zach Rotman: Similarly to the Blue Jays, the San Francisco Giants have been in on virtually every big-name free agent in recent years, and have missed on just about all of them. Sure, they’ve signed guys like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, and even Justin Verlander in the last couple of winters, but those players don’t come close to comparing to the likes of Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and even Roki Sasaki, who they just missed on. The best player they’ve signed, Blake Snell, stuck around for just one year, opted out of his contract, and immediately signed a long-term deal with their arch-rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s definitely a frustrating time to be a Giants fan.
Chris Landers: If we’re not including teams who have taken themselves out of contention for free agents and trade targets (hi, Seattle and Baltimore!) the answer has to be San Francisco. Willy Adames is nice, but it doesn’t make up for how different this franchise might’ve looked had it landed any of Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Juan Soto or Roki Sasaki. Most teams are operating on a tight budget; the Giants are begging someone, anyone, to take their money, and almost nobody did for the entirety of the Farhan Zaidi era.
Terrence Jordan: The Giants and Blue Jays have missed out on more free agents than the rest of the league combined. After those two perpetual bridesmaids, I’ll take the Red Sox. Name a top free agent from the past few years, and odds are that Boston was reported to have interest in them. Last year they missed on Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani. Their pursuits this offseason of Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried have all come up empty as well. We’ll see if the same thing happens with Alex Bregman, but with all of these free agent misses, Red Sox fans are already steeling themselves for an upcoming low-budget youth movement.
Cody Williams: Being a Cleveland Guardians fan just seems like a miserable experience when you’re looking at their consistent undermining of this roster. The most egregious example is trading one of the most promising young hitters in baseball, Josh Naylor, for a pitching prospect and then immediately replacing him with 39-year-old Carlos Santana. That’s a kick to the groin in itself, and it’s one made worse considering that Andres Gimenez and Nick Sandlin were sent out to the Blue Jays in a baffling deal earlier in the offseason. Sure, Shane Bieber is coming back. Great. But I don’t know how Guardians fans handle the strain of this front office actively making this team worse in the interest, as always, of saving money.
Robert Murray: The Seattle Mariners. I don’t even know if we can call them near misses because, well, it doesn’t even feel like they’re trying that hard to upgrade their major-league roster. They have a dominant pitching staff, the best in baseball. Their offense needs reinforcements badly. If they signed a Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman, and signed 1-2 other free agents, they’d be in the World Series conversation. Instead, they aren’t even being mentioned with these guys. Maddening.
In an alternate reality, which MLB superstar – non-Mike Trout division – would force their way out tomorrow?
Zachary Rotman: Not to beat up on the Blue Jays too much, but I really do think the answer to this question is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The team finished in last place in the AL East last season despite his absurd year, and has done little to improve their roster. He has expressed his willingness to sign an extension with the organization if they met his demands, but the Jays have yet to do so. If they refuse to stop nickel-and-diming, and refuse to make major on-field upgrades, it’d be tough to blame Guerrero if he did get frustrated enough to the point where he asked out.
Chris Landers: Julio Rodriguez has done nothing but embrace being a Seattle Mariner over his Major League career, but I have to think that if you slipped him some truth serum he’d cop to wishing he were somewhere else. For starters, as Zach alluded to above, he’s wound up in just about the worst place to hit in the entire sport. And on top of that, his ownership group is allergic to spending, content to squander away what should be a very exciting young core. Somebody please get this man to a front office that isn’t afraid of its own shadow.
Terrence Jordan: It just isn’t right that Mason Miller and his golden arm are going to be wasting away in a minor league park in Sacramento for the next three years. He should be able to get his own residency in Vegas until the A’s get there, or better yet, trade him to a team that could make better use of his talents and not force him to toil in obscurity. If this was the NBA, Miller would be dropping cryptic tweets and complaining of phantom back tightness until he went somewhere better.
Cody Williams: Not to harp on the Orioles here, but if Baltimore regresses and fails to show any level of aggression in the next offseason or two when it comes to free agency and trades, it’s not far-fetched to imagine Gunnar Henderson throwing his weight around. The infielder emerged as a viable and perhaps perennial MVP candidate in the American League last season and hasn’t even reached his prime. We know that new ownership in Baltimore has promised more spending but, you know, we need to see that. Henderson’s price tag is only going up and if the Orioles trend in the opposite direction due to a lack of spending, I could see the young star wanting to shine elsewhere.
Which top-100 prospect is a real threat to make their MLB Debut on Opening Day, and who will they replace long term?
Zachary Rotman: Based on how the Chicago Cubs have acted this offseason, it’d be surprising to not see Matt Shaw as the team’s Opening Day third baseman. Isaac Paredes seemed like a lock for that spot before he was traded to the Houston Astros in the Kyle Tucker trade. The Cubs have also non-tendered Nick Madrigal, DFA’d Patrick Wisdom, and traded Miles Mastrobuoni. The best third baseman other than Shaw in their organization right now is probably Vidal Brujan, a player with a .531 OPS in parts of four MLB seasons. Shaw played well enough to earn a call-up last season, posting an .867 OPS in 121 minor league games overall and a .929 OPS in 35 games at the Triple-A level, so he might already be MLB-ready. Barring an addition, it feels like Shaw’s job to lose, which is pretty crazy for a player entering his second full professional season. As for who he’ll replace long-term, that answer is hard to come up with, due to the lack of options on the roster to begin with, so I’ll reluctantly say Brujan.
Chris Landers: Of the three remaining members of Boston’s erstwhile Big Four, Kristian Campbell strikes me as the one most likely to break camp with the big-league club, both because of his defensive versatility and because he’d bring a needed righty presence to a very lefty-heavy lineup. The Red Sox have needs in left field and at second base (apologies to Vaughn Grissom), so why not? Beyond that, I’ll go off the board a bit and take Cleveland outfielder Chase DeLauter, who’s done nothing but rake when healthy since being drafted in the first round back in 2022. The Guardians have been desperate for a corner outfielder for years now, and with all due respect to Jhonkensy Noel, I don’t think they see him as an everyday guy. If DeLauter stays on the field and puts together a strong spring, look out.
Terrence Jordan: The Angels like getting their top prospects to the majors quickly, and it looks like they have a special one in Christian Moore. It wasn’t enough for the sweet-swinging second baseman to hit .375 and lead his Tennessee Volunteers to a College World Series title over the summer — he also hit .347 with a .984 OPS in 101 minor league at-bats after being drafted eighth overall. Moore is the most major-league ready hitter to come out of the draft, and last I checked, the Angels aren’t exactly contenders. He could not only make the Opening Day roster, he could start at second over Brandon Drury from the get-go.
Cody Williams: As a Red Sox fan, I joked to Chris Landers, our resident Yankees fan, that I was going to contradict him at every turn. I lied. Kristian Campbell is an obvious answer here, as is his fellow top Red Sox prospect Roman Anthony. But Campbell stands out for the reasons mentioned. He’s almost surely the Plan B to putting Alex Bregman at second base in Boston and answers the bell with Boston’s dire need for a right-handed bat. He can be moved around as well, which offers more versatility to get him into the lineup and, though this might be unfair pressure on him, it’s hard for Sox fans not to think about his rapid rise as a second baseman/outfielder and not be reminded of the similar rise from Mookie Betts years ago. Maybe don’t trade Campbell, though.
Robert Murray's notebook: What are the Pirates and Giants up to?
- The Pirates are in the outfield market, showing strong interest in free-agent Alex Verdugo, sources said.
- The Giants recently had a conversation with Randal Grichuk’s camp, source said. There are other teams involved, but he’s a name to watch in the coming days.
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