Two Tys, a $1 million prize: How NASCAR’s bold new format delivered chaos

We are down to two for the champion of NASCAR's first in-season tournament. And it goes without saying ... these are not the two anyone expected.

It'll be the Ty and Ty show for the $1 million prize, with Ty Gibbs going head-to-head with Ty Dillon at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Sunday.

Dillon's appearance culminates a "Cinderella" run, after he came into the tournament as the lowest possible seed.

Gibbs, driving for his grandfather's team, is much less shocking, although the 22-year-old is still in search of his first Cup Series win.

So how did we get here? And who's going to win?

What are the rules of the NASCAR In-Season Challenge?

Think March Madness, but cars, and those who are eliminated will get to keep driving.

32 drivers qualified for the tournament by being in the top 32 of the NASCAR Cup standings. There are five races in the Challenge: Atlanta was the opening round and dropped the field from 32 to 16, then Chicago brought us down to eight and Sonoma gave us our final four.

Dover set the title "race" between Gibbs and Dillon.

Where can I watch the In-Season Tournament Championship Race?

To be clear, this race will still feature the full field racing for the win at the Brickyard 400, but the Dillon v. Gibbs matchup will be an extra element.

For American fans, the Brickyard 400 airs on TNT at 2 p.m., with the green flag due to drop at 2:20 p.m.

It is the final race on TNT in the 2025 season before the remainder of the Cup slate goes to NBC and USA.

Watching from outside the United States? You can find your local carrier of NASCAR right here.

How did the championship drivers get here?

Gibbs entered the tournament as the #6 seed, while Dillon was the #32 (and final) seed.

Seeding was based on three "seeding" races before the tournament -- the seeding has nothing to do with points position. Gibbs is currently 19th in the playoff picture, 52 points out of a playoff spot, while Dillon is a distant 30th.

Gibbs has rode a solid set of results to get here, including three consecutive top ten results. His "worst" finish was 14th at Atlanta, and his best was second in Chicago. In the end, he races for Joe Gibbs Motorsports, one of the top teams in the sport.

Ty Gibbs' results/opponents

Ty Dillon's results/opponents

Dillon's road is much different, and much luckier. His average finish over the tournament is 16th, and includes just one top ten. But the tournament promoted chaos, and along the way, Dillon took down some solid drivers.

He got past Hamlin and Keselowski because of crashes, while he shoved Bowman out of the way in the final braking zone at Sonoma. Nemechek was probably his weakest competition, and when he was stuck a lap down in overtime while Dillon wasn't, his place in the final was assured.

Dillon races for Kaulig, one of the lesser performing teams in Cup, and Dillon usually is the weaker part of the duo between him and AJ Allmendinger.

So who's going to win? Predictions for the Brickyard 400

On paper, Gibbs should be the clear pick, but over and over again, Dillon has proved everyone wrong and gotten to this point.

Why Gibbs could win

He's just a much more consistent driver in much better machinery.

Gibbs came in highly regarded as the 2022 Xfinity Series champ, but a win has escaped him.

Earlier this year, Gibbs took eight races to even post a top 10, and had nine finishes outside the top 20 in the first 16 races.

But his consistency has returned, including three top fives in the past seven races.

The numbers are in his favor -- in less than three years in the cup series, Gibbs already has more than triple the career top 10s Dillon has in many more years in the series.

Why Dillon could win

Well, why not?

The magic has stuck with him this far, and he is clearly loving it. While most drivers have been meh at best on their enjoyment of the bracket, Dillon said, "I don't want this to end." So he is a perfect poster boy for this new element in the Cup season.

Dillon will clearly throw everything he's got at this, and that could mean wild moves or a crazy strategy to get him there.

Gibbs is still within a reasonable shot of getting in the playoffs on points, so he can't afford to take a poor result on a big risk.

And how about this: Dillon's lifetime numbers in Cup are usually littered with finishes of 20th or worse. But at Indianapolis?

Dillon has never finished in the top 10, but he's also finished 21st or better in all five tries he's had at the 2.5-mile oval, good for an average of 17.2.

Even better for the Cinderella story: Dillon has made six Xfinity starts at the Brickyard -- five top 10s and a win back in 2014 -- his one and only win in the series, and his most recent victory in NASCAR's national series.

It's all lining up for him isn't it?

My prediction for Gibbs vs. Dillon

I've picked against Dillon in three of the four rounds ... I'll make it only three out of five.

Dillon will use some wacky strategy that will get him a top 15 finish ahead of Gibbs somewhere just behind him.

Logic doesn't favor this at all, but why not? In a series where the "game 7" moment is the key -- here's one for you.