NASCAR Cup Series regular season championship battle is historically close with four races left

The battle for the NASCAR Cup Series regular season championship is coming down to the wire with only four races remaining before the playoffs begin at Darlington Raceway on Aug. 31. As things currently stand after Bubba Wallace's Brickyard 400 triumph, Chase Elliott holds a slim four-point lead over Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron, while his other teammate Kyle Larson is 15 back and Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin is 20 points behind.

According to NASCAR Insights, this is the closest the top four in points have been after 22 races since 17 points separated them in 2012.

This is also the closest the top four have been since NASCAR first introduced the regular season championship in 2017. The driver that has claimed the regular season title has only gone on to win the championship three times, so nothing is guaranteed when the 10-race playoffs begin.

Still, there are 15 additional playoff points that come with the regular season title, which could prove extremely valuable in a postseason elimination format that values wins and points. All four drivers have earned their place atop the standings, but each has gone about getting to this point of the season differently.

How did each of the four drivers get here?

Let's start with the most consistent driver of the bunch. Elliott is the only driver in the series with a top-20 finish in every race this season. While the consistency has been on display, Elliott's two biggest issues have been qualifying well and leading laps. Aside from starting on the pole at Dover after qualifying was rained out, Elliott has not started a points-paying race from inside the top 10 since he started ninth at Kansas on May 11. Elliott led a season-high 238 laps from the pole at Dover, proving how dangerous he can be if he can start toward the front.

Byron had been the points leader for most of the season until a recent summer slump. Although Byron has qualified much better than Elliott, his execution has not been as consistent with five finishes of 16th or worse in his last six races, including a crash at Dover. He also ran out of fuel at Indianapolis while running among the top five for much of the race.

Unlike Elliott and Byron, who only have one win apiece this season, Larson has three wins to his credit, but also fell prey to a summer slump. Fortunately for him, he seems to be righting the ship with back-to-back top-five finishes, highlighted by his runner-up in the Brickyard 400.

Then there's Hamlin, who leads the series with four victories and rallied from the rear of the field in a backup car to finish third at Indianapolis. Hamlin even missed the Mexico City race due to the birth of his third child and still finds himself only 20 points behind Elliott in points.

What is each driver's outlook for the final four regular-season races?

Elliott was third in the first Cup Series race at Iowa last season and has a pair of wins at Watkins Glen. However, he has not won at Richmond or Daytona, so how he performs at those two tracks could determine if he pockets those additional playoff points or not.

Byron was runner-up to Ryan Blaney in last year's Iowa race and has one win at Watkins Glen (2023) and three at Daytona, including the 2020 summer race. He has never won at Richmond and only has one top five in 13 starts. That could make or break his regular season title hopes, but if the poor luck does not turn around soon, it may not matter.

Larson won the pole for the inaugural Cup race at Iowa last season and led 80 laps before coming away with a 34th-place finish. He has wins at Watkins Glen (2021, 2022) and Richmond (2017, 2023), but has not found Victory Lane at Daytona with four straight finishes outside the top 10. He has led laps there in three of his last five races, though, so it's hard to count him out.

Hamlin's first race at Iowa did not go well with a 24th-place result. Fortunately for him, he has a win at Watkins Glen (2016) and a combined eight wins at Richmond and Daytona. He may be farther back than Byron and Larson, but he may have the best overall shot at catching Elliott, assuming he can get past Iowa.

If we are going by consistency, Elliott is the clear frontrunner for the regular season title. Don't sleep on any of the other three, especially Hamlin, who appears to be the most complete of the four right now when it comes to leading laps and putting himself in position to win races.