It’s very rare two of the top five players that are eligible for the upcoming draft won’t make it past the conference tournament and Rutgers will be lucky to even make the conference tournament at this point.
The Scarlet Knights have two of the country's most talked-about freshmen who are most certainly NBA bound after the season concludes, yet they won’t get a chance to play on the national stage in the NCAA Tournament – most likely.
Which means now it’s more of a guessing game of which player will get drafted ahead of the other. I’m sure Dylan Harper’s latest 34-point performance raised some eyebrows and his draft stock. But it also makes any team with high lottery odds go back to the drawing board to truly evaluate which of the two Rutgers stars is better.
It will most likely come down to team fit more than anything. Cooper Flagg is the runaway No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming draft, barring a crazy decision to stay at Duke.
The latest NBA mock drafts have Harper as the No. 2 selection to the New Orleans Pelicans, but that could change. Ace Bailey has been talked about as the No. 2 pick for much of the season so he could become the de facto option as well.
Making the case: Why Dylan Harper is the better prospect over Rutgers teammate Ace Bailey
It’s a tight-knit decision on who should be the next pick behind Flagg, assuming one of the Rutgers stars is next off the board. With neither player most likely not making it past the early rounds of the Big Ten tournament, the only evaluation we’ll have is from the regular season.
Right now, I would say Harper has the edge over Ace Bailey. I think Bailey is the better player, but Harper is less risky than Bailey. According to an ESPN story, Bailey’s biggest critique right now is his shot selection.
He’s very much a volume shooter, which has been his role on a lowly Rutgers team. Harper has been that true guard this season, averaging a team-high 19.2 points and four assists. He also has one of the highest field goal percentages at 47.9.
While he isn’t a prolific shooter, there’s room for growth, according to ESPN's evaluation. I feel like that’s a better gamble than a player that takes a lot of shots.
Bailey’s high shot volume reminds me of Jordan Poole or Jalen Green. When Green came into the league he took a lot of shots probably because he was trying to expedite his progress to being the team’s star.
The Rockets have since built around Green and while he’s still a volume shooter, he has a team around him to take that pressure off him. With Bailey, if he ends up on a team that doesn’t have a lot of talent, he’ll find himself in that same position.
Versus with Harper, because he’s not a prolific scorer, he’ll look to create first while being good enough to create for himself when he needs to. On a team like the Pelicans, they have some scorers around him where he won’t have to be the focal point of the offense.
I would hate to be an NBA front office person having to decide between Harper and Bailey. They are similar yet different and because they won’t get a chance to get evaluated on a much larger stage, it makes the decision even harder.