Upside and Motor: 5 NBA Draft sleepers who could become surprise stars

The early entry deadline passed this week, with 106 non-international prospects officially putting their name in the 2025 NBA Draft. That is the lowest number since 2015, with NIL changing the landscape of college basketball and encouraging the majority of prospects without a clear NBA future to stick in school.

That means we will see a lot more seniors and international prospects, especially in the second round. It also means the depth of this draft class will fall off rather dramatically once the initial wave of talent is off the board.

It's great for college basketball and less than ideal for NBA teams, but fear not. There will be plenty of quality contributors available for teams with enough vision.

As for the top of the draft, we generally know the surefire All-Star bets in the 2025 class. Cooper Flagg has generational upside. Dylan Harper has all the makings of a franchise point guard. VJ Edgecombe is from a different planet athletically. Ace Bailey's size and shot-making comes around once in a blue moon. Jeremiah Fears gets wherever he wants on the floor.

But what about the star bets folks aren't talking about? These prospects range anywhere from the top 10 to the early second round on draft boards, but we should start viewing them as legitimate future All-Stars if all breaks right.

Labaron Philon, G, Alabama (Fr.)

Labaron Philon starred in a connective role for Alabama this season, quickly taking purchase in Nate Oats' starting lineup. He has become something of a polarizing prospect in draft circles, however, due to clear athletic limitations and a shaky 3-point shot. He averaged 10.6 points, 3.8 assists and 1.4 steals on .452/.315/.767 splits for the Crimson Tide.

Listed at 6-foot-4 and 177 pounds, Philon's thin frame does present certain challenges at the next level. He put up a healthy volume of 3s at Alabama (3.4 per game), but was never dependable, with stiff mechanics and a slow release contributing to concern among scouts. A dig below the surface, however, reveals a ton of star traits. The right team could unearth a gem in the later stages of the first round, even the second round.

Philon is incredibly advanced in terms of feel and ball skills. The jumper hasn't caught up yet, but Philon's ball-handling candences are wholly unique. He stops and starts on a dime, creating separation with pure craft, even if he's not the most explosive downhill athlete. Philon's ability to worm his way into the teeth of the defense is an incredibly valuable tool. He couples it with feathery touch around the rim. His float game might be the best in the entire draft.

Philon reads the floor, creates advantages with his handle, and finishes well among the trees despite his lack of brute-force capacity. He also generates consistently positive results on defense, although the NBA will present a new level of difficulty as stronger guards and wings seek him out and test his abilities on an island.

He needs to add muscle and improve the jumper, but if Philon puts the pieces together, it's not hard to imagine him as one of the top prospects from this draft a decade from now.

Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State (Fr.)

Jase Richardson began the season in a marginal bench role under Tom Izzo. By season's end, he was the star of Michigan State's Elite Eight run. With NBA pedigree (Richardson's father is former Warriors fan favorite Jason Richardson) and a rare track record of accomplishment as a freshman on Izzo's tight leash, there is a lot to like about Richardson.

The criticisms of him as a prospect are right on the surface. He's a 6-foot-3 guard who didn't incur much of a playmaking burden for the Spartans. He profiles as more of an off-ball scorer and connective passer, rather than a natural lead guard. That's not to say Richardson can't develop his point guard skills over time, but small, score-first guards are not the dream archetype for NBA front offices nowadays.

And yet, Richardson's efficiency from all areas of the court simply breaks convention.

Richardson displays absurd touch and shot diversity. He can hit 3s pulling up or running off a screen, he's an incredibly shifty driver and his floater is pure. Even as a below-the-rim guard, Richardson ranks among the best interior finishers in the draft. There are strong flavors of Jared McCain and Reed Sheppard here. Richardson's feel and shot-making ability transcend the limitations of his frame and role.

Kon Knueppel, F, Duke (Fr.)

Kon Knueppel could go as high as No. 5 on draft night, so there is a clear appreciation for his skill set. It was easy to get lost in Cooper Flagg's shadow at Duke, but Knueppel was consistently one of the most impactful freshman in college basketball last season. When Flagg went down with an ankle injury in the ACC Tournament, it was Knueppel who led Duke to the conference title.

That said, the conversation around Knueppel tends to center on his NBA readiness. He's a knockdown shooter with a high feel for the game. He can fit into any lineup, any scheme, and provide day-one value. That is a worthwhile point to make, but Knueppel isn't just a high-floor bet. There is real All-Star upside, despite the myriad athletic concerns his skeptics will point to.

Knueppel is not a traditionally bursty athlete on the wing. He doesn't create much separation with his handle and he's not going to isolate very successfully against high-level NBA defenders. That said, we often underrate feel as an indicator of star potential. Knueppel processes the floor at warp speed. He makes sharp passing reads in the flow of the offense and knows how to play within himself, a real advantage not shared by all lottery prospects.

Despite a quickness deficiency, Knueppel is comfortable working out of pick-and-rolls and getting downhill against closeouts. He creates space with strength and gear shifts, using his broad shoulders and old-school footwork to offset contests. His two-foot finishing is absurd. He converted at a 62.1 percent clip on shots at the rim.

Knueppel's blend of elite shooting, passing and a diverse interior scoring package all scream future star. He may not look the part as first glance, but Knueppel's ceiling stretches far higher than most folks seem to realize. He is more than an elite role player.

Noa Essengue, F, Ratiopharm Ulm (France, 2006)

Noa Essengue continues to produce for Ratiopharm Ulm, a top German pro team, at 18 years old. He is the second-youngest player in the draft, only three days older than presumptive No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg. While Essengue is perhaps not the most polished and fine-tuned prospect in the lottery mix, his blend of youth, athleticism and feel present a tantilizing ceiling.

At 6-foot-10 and 194 pounds, Essengue is an incredibly fluid athlete in a mold every front office covets. He will need to add strength to combat NBA athletes, but Essengue's 9-foot-4 standing reach and elite lateral mobility present a strong defensive floor. He can switch on the perimeter, devour shot attempts from the weak side and create havoc in passing lanes.

The offensive fit is less clear upon initial observation, as he's shooting 27.6 percent on modest 3-point volume and he lacks advanced handles. And yet, despite those limitations, Essengue continues to score on backdoor cuts, straight-line drives and the like. He has strong instincts for when to cut and move into open space. As a slasher, the upside really shines through. Essengue's dynamic first step, long strides and stretchy finesse pop on tape. Very few athletes at Essengue's size move and contort their bodies like him.

He's a beast in transition and a few slight tweaks away from consistent advantage creation and star-level finishing in the halfcourt. We should be talking about Essengue not only as the best international prospect in this class, but as a potential top-five outcome overall.

Collin Murray-Boyles, F, South Carolina (So.)

Collin Murray-Boyles has cemented his status as my favorite sleeper in a deep lottery class. The South Carolina sophomore was out of sight, out of mind for a lot of folks on a bad Gamecocks team, but he upped his production and his efficiency across the board in his second season. Few players in college basketball were more impactful on both ends, even if Murray-Boyles didn't have enough support to win games.

At 6-foot-7 and 231 pounds, Murray-Boyles is arguably the best defender on the board. He has strong competition from Cooper Flagg, VJ Edgecombe and others, but Murray-Boyles' strength, mobility and IQ make for an exceedingly rare combo. He vacuums up passing lanes, inhales weak-side shot attempts, and effortlessly slides his feet with guards on the perimeter. The cherry on top, Murray-Boyles is an elite rebounder, despite his smallish frame. Positional rebounding is a huge positive indicator at the next level.

The criticisms of Murray-Boyles are simple. He's a tweener on paper, too small to play center, but not a floor-spacer at the four. It's fair to be concerned about his jumper, but Murray-Boyles at least showed marginal growth as a sophomore. He's attempting 3s, which he was not as a freshman, and there's reason to believe his soft touch around the rim can one day translate to consistent results as a spot-up shooter.

Even if the jumper stalls, Murray-Boyles provides so much value elsewhere on the floor. He was the best interior finisher in the SEC at 6-foot-7, combining brute strength with pristine footwork. He gets downhill quickly in face-up scenarios, bullying his way through smaller defenders and dancing around slow-footed bigs. He's a pinpoint passer from the elbow, a wizard-esque scorer at the rim, and a jump shot away from checking all the boxes. Buy your stock now.

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Who are the five best returners for the 2026 NBA Draft cycle?

As mentioned at the top of this article, the returning class for the 2026 NBA Draft is atypically strong. A lot of players are taking the NIL check over uncertainty at the next level, which means underclassmen who historically go pro are sticking around the college ranks, often as high-profile transfers.

Here are the best returners from what is shaping up to be a loaded 2026 draft.

5. Flory Bidunga, C, Kansas (Fr.)

Flory Bidunga arrived at Kansas as a potential one-and-done candidate, but his role was limited and he never really sustained production over a weeks-long period. As a result, he will return to a stacked Jayhawks roster, led by presumptive No. 1 pick Darryn Peterson. With a more robust role in store, Bidunga's incredible athleticism as a rim protector and finisher could lead him to the first round a year from now.

4. Joseph Tugler, F, Houston (So.)

Joseph Tugler played an integral role in Houston's run to the NCAA Tournament title game. He needs to figure out his role on offense, but there are few more impactful defenders in college basketball. At 6-foot-7 with elastic limbs and a strong center of gravity, Tugler can evaporate shot attempts as weak-side roamer or move his feet with guards on the perimeter. His defensive playmaking is special.

3. JT Toppin, F, Texas Tech (So.)

JT Toppin led Texas Tech to the Elite Eight and put together one of the most comprehensive and impactful individual seasons in college basketball as a sophomore. He was a potential first-round pick, but announced his intention to return to the Red Raiders very early in the process. It's a huge boon for the Texas Tech program, as Toppin's interior scoring, rim protection and connective passing serve as the foundation of a potential contender.

2. Bennett Stirtz, G, Iowa (Sr.)

Bennett Stirtz was a mid-major favorite at Drake this season, leading the Bulldogs past SEC middleweight Missouri in the NCAA Tournament. He's the best pick-and-roll guard in the country, exhibiting incredible creativity as a ball-handler and deadly potency as a pull-up shooter. He will follow his head coach, Ben McCollum, to Iowa with a chance to prove his mettle against top-tier Big Ten competition in 2025.

1. Jayden Quaintance, C, Kentucky (So.)

Jayden Quaintance is a unique case. He arrived at Arizona State as a 17-year-old freshman, too young to declare for the NBA Draft. Now he takes his talents to Kentucky, where the spotlight gets brighter. After averaging 2.6 blocks and 1.1 steals in 29.5 minutes before achieving legal adult status, Quaintance has top-five potential in the 2026 draft class. His elite defensive playmaking and occasional flashes of skill as a 6-foot-9 forward are tantalizing.

Who holds the belt right now? A mini-NBA mock draft

We ran our full NBA Mock Draft yesterday, featuring our final lottery simulation before the order concretizes on May 12. Let's give it one more spin for the road, courtesy of Tankathon.