NBA history tells us we’re on a Thunder-Cavs collision course to the Finals
By Quinn Everts
Would Cavaliers and Thunder fans be happy with coin-flip odds to make the NBA Finals? Because that might be what each team is dealing with right now.
According to Andrew Schlecht and Alex Speers on The Athletic Daily NBA Show, only 30 teams in NBA history have won 28 of their first 33 games — including OKC and Cleveland this season. Of the 28 teams that have done it before, 13 of them won the NBA Finals. 14 of them have made the NBA Finals, and 24 of the 28 teams made at least the conference finals.
Neither of these teams has made the conference finals with their current cores — so an 85 percent chance of achieving that has to feel pretty good. Overall, yes — if you told OKC and Cleveland fans right now there's 50 percent chance their team makes the NBA Finals, I'm guessing they'd be okay with those odds.
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Oklahoma City and Cleveland had high hopes
Coming into the season, both of these teams hoped 2024-25 would be a breakthrough year. Each was coming off a second-round loss in 2023-24; OKC fell to Dallas in the second round while Cleveland lost to eventual NBA champions, the Boston Celtics.
Signing Isaiah Hartenstein in the offsesaon was OKC's message to the NBA that a second-round exit was a disappointment, not an accomplishment. They wanted more, and addressing the one hole on the roster — center depth — was a sign that "more" meant an NBA Finals appearance. Through 35 games, OKC is 30-5 and winners of 15 straight. After a convincing win against Boston on Sunday, the NBA world is starting to re-think if Boston is still the favorite to win it all... Or if OKC has overtaken that spot.
Cleveland didn't make any big offseason moves; but it's not quite running back the same group, either. This year, the Cavs have a healthy Darius Garland and a version of Evan Mobley that looks more like the lofty pre-draft comparisons he garnered a few years ago. At 31-4, the Cavs are blowing away whatever expectations were placed on them after last year's solid season.
Surviving each respective conference in the playoffs is far from a guarantee — Boston, New York, Denver, Memphis, Dallas and more lurk on both sides of the bracket. Still, OKC and Cleveland are among some rare companies with their starts, and history bodes well for these teams making deep playoff runs.