Again, I want to be perfectly clear, being able to decide what you enjoy, hell even knowing what that is, is a good thing. If January, February basketball isn’t your thing, I’m not going to make you turn on league pass to watch Charlotte become less and less enjoyable. But I will say there are interesting things to look for at this time of the year.
NBA Trade Deadline
Just going to mention this because I feel like I have to. Everyone* loves the trade deadline. Almost to the point it feels like you have to. That’s the best kind of merriment: mandatory.
But yeah, teams love waiting until the last minute to move players for whatever reason. It seems to happen that way most years. As we get closer and closer to the last day trades are possible, more trades happen. That last day this year is Feb. 5. Will Dallas and the Lakers swap back? Who knows.
It’s hard to be certain who is going to be on the move. Or if anyone will. Sometimes the deadline is just a big buildup and nothing happens.
And if that is the case, that’s more what this article was made for. There is still a lot of joy to be had just by watching the actual game/act of basketball played by pretty much all of the best players in the world.
Teams know who they are
At this point in the season, teams have a pretty strong estimation of who they are. One would hope so, anyway. That doesn’t necessarily they’re in for tanking or are going to go all in on a piece because they think they’re contenders. I mean, everyone in the team has seen them play.
The players have the knowledge of being on the court and interacting in game time. The coaches know what plays are working, what systems have flaws, that kind of thing. Management gets a better grasp on value of players, using math I can’t comprehend, and doing actual scouting legwork to know what they have to work with going forward.
This should be the time of the year where you’re finally solid. If the initial plans for the season went well, you’re trying new things, expanding your base to be ready for different looks down the line. Maybe it’s like the year we learned Duncan Robinson could drive on a small scale. Maybe it’s that late help down low is something dinging your schemes in general. Small tweaks, new wrinkles.
Annnnnd if your initial plans for your team didn’t work out on the other hand? Maybe you feel you’ve righted the ship. Or maybe you did for a bit (Hi Brooklyn), and you’re taking on water again. And (we’ll get to this bust) just like in the early season when you don’t have footage on your opponents yet? A game against a flailing team is dangerous. It’s an easy way to drop one when you feel like you should be going on a winning stretch.
But mostly? You can go down the standings and watch as you have a less and less clear picture of what that team is or how it works.
Teams know who other teams are
Early in the season, teams are more or less forced to operate in preparation for their opponent in their base defense and pre-plan with educated, very-knowledgeable-and-professional guesswork. Is game footage from the preseason useful? Is what we did last year going to work this year? Just based on updated personnel, what can we predict they will do differently? And so on.
Just for example, imagine what it was like for a team early in the season to go up against the Miami Heat offense. Last season, it was a huge deal when the Grizzlies set so few picks. Miami set even fewer. There is a lot more thinking on your feet and building data.
Now, to stick with the Heat, there are 40+ games to study how they operate in space on offense, what to prepare for, and probably even games where you’ve played before. The Heat still have an incredible offense, but not to the point where it seemed like they were a step ahead of the league.
This is about as extreme an example as it gets. But generally, things that worked because they were novel aren’t so novel anymore. Games now are between teams that can truly test each other, adapt to each other, plan for each other with real, better information. It’s hard to win a game this time of year.
The things you see are real
Remember when Chicago was 5-0 with wins over Detroit, Orlando, and New York?
Yeah.
Now Chicago is more where we expect them to be. Down in the Play-In lane. Along with Miami and Atlanta. Doesn’t that feel kind of comfy? Kind of like a tangible sign of familiarity in a world rapidly changing into something very scary?
Sample size is a thing, and the sample size, well, is pretty big now. I like the number 30 for some reason. Teams have played over 40 games. 40 is bigger than 30. Therefore, we have an ample sample size.
Science.
Don’t think like me.
Even in less dubious terms, we’ve gone long enough for hot streaks to even out. And we’ve gone long enough for cold spells to correct. Teammates have been around each other long enough to either form bonds or have the vibes go entirely rancid. Around this time of year, you start to see that. We’re past the halfway point. Once the hope is gone, things start to erode.
But for now!
Alex Sarr, Jay Huff, and Isaiah Stewart really do lead the lead in blocks. Rudy Gobert really has gotten worse at catching the basketball and his head looks like a grape. Austin Reaves? Well, he got better. Maybe just not THAT better. And everyone hates being on the Lakers.
Sorry, let’s go back to the positive stuff. I like having Beef Stew on the Pistons. I hope he doesn’t do anything super bad one day. :)
As an offshoot of that, are any neat statistical things possible going forward?
How many people can finish the season shooting above 45 percent from 3? Will Deni Avdija get to the line more than any other player until the playoffs? And commit the most turnovers in the same season? Can Jaylen Brown finish higher than Tatum has in MVP voting? Okay, that’s not exactly a stat, but you know. It’d be funny.
I don’t know what you care about, so it’s hard for me to decide for you. But if you’re asking is “blank really as good as his stats say,” at this point in the season, for as much as that question can be worth, the answer is kinda yeah! And that’s neat.
Readjusting expectations
Remember how before the season, everything looked so hopeful? Like the problems from last year were hopefully being adjusted, and players looked in great shape and said the right things at media day? Maybe there was a three game winning streak in early November and the vibes were good, and you thought to yourself, “that’s the team I was waiting to see.”
Well, how do you feel now? The same way?
I bet you’re not having fun anymore.
That’s because you set your expectations too high. This is your fault. If you’re not having fun anymore, that’s your fault, and now I’m mad at YOU. I spent so much of this article talking about happy things, and now look where we are.
Everything is just so dramatic. So dramatic all the time.
Anyway, now that your expectations are much lower, it’s easier to enjoy what’s in front of you! Maybe! I recommend getting to the point where your expectations are so low that any time you see a dunk, you feel sated for the day. Dunks are pretty neat.
I’m sorry; I feel a little bit like I got hostile there, and that really wasn’t necessary. I’ll do better next time.