Forty years ago this week, the Showtime Lakers broke through the Celtics mystique in six finals games on the Boston Garden's parquet floors. In six games Kareem Abdul-Jabbar averaged 25.7 points and nine boards per contest to cap off a title repeat. For his effort, Abdul-Jabbar was named Finals MVP, At the age of 38, he remains the oldest recipient of the honor. The next time Giannis Antetokounmpo gets back to the Finals stage as Milwaukee Buck, he may be closer to Kareem than his baby-faced 20s.
Jon Horst and Doc Rivers’ plan
The most disciplined poker players know when to walk away from the table. However, with every passing day, it becomes more apparent that the Bucks are preparing for a gap year in 2025-26. According to Tim Botemps and Brian Windhorst, the plan in place is to build around their core. This is not a drill.
"In meetings with ownership since the end of the season, Bucks coach Doc Rivers and recently-extended general manager Jon Horst have presented plans to keep the core of the team intact around Antetokounmpo, with a goal of competing for a top-six playoff spot and with a hope Damian Lillard could return from his Achilles recovery before the end of next season. The Bucks went 10-4 without Lillard to close the regular season as he dealt with a blood clot. That, plus Antetokoumpo's larger role of keeping Milwaukee afloat, were the cornerstones of the team's projection."
It’s a noble idea with a glaring flaw. A single gap year won’t solve the issues that plague the Bucks. Two may not be enough. Here’s the problem. Milwaukee has no stable core. In a league where youth reigns supreme, the Bucks lack any connection to the future. Their top six in minutes played this season were Damian Lillard, Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, Kyle Kuzma, Taurean Prince, Gart Trent Jr., and Bobby Portis in that order.
Father Time’s holding a clipboard
They don’t own a first rounder in 2025. Their next five first round picks are either gone or controlled by another team. What that essentially means is that those picks have no trade value for Milwaukee. Recipients of the Milwaukee pick swaps can turn around trade their pick swaps, but not the other way around. By the time all this plays out, Antetokounmpo could be filing for Social Security
Milwaukee is trapped between a rock and a hard place. This rebuild won’t be a quick one. By the time it’s over, Antetokounmpo could be approaching his senior years. It may turn out that his wandering eye over the years was just a ruse to get the Bucks front office to act.
The Bucks front office is taking an unorthodox route with a 30-year-old. Kobe Bryant endured a rebuild after Shaquille O'Neal was traded to Miami. Tim Duncan won his last fifth title at the age of 37. Karl Malone was 35 when he reached the Finals in ‘98. LeBron James last got his hands on a Larry O'Brien and Finals MVP award when he was 35.
If anything, seeing how much mileage teams have gotten out of great bigs of Antetokounmpo’s ilk makes San Antonio’s reluctance to acquire Antetokounmpo in a guard-heavy draft even more puzzling. Watching San Antonio and Milwaukee avoid each other is harder to watch than shy kids at a middle school dance.
Starting a rebuild after 30 is ill-advised. Portland tried to pull a similar rebuild stunt over Damian Lillard's head prompting him to ask out of the grind. Starting a rebuilding with no developing talent in the coffers or G-League, meager trade assets and Kuzma’s albatross of a contract hanging onto their necks is a recipe for disaster.
The burden on Giannis
The Bucks have been built over a sinkhole. Brook Lopez, 37, is a vet who has anchored their defense in the paint since 2018 who they’ll have to part with. He made $23 million last season and a team in need of his size and shooting could offer that to him on a one-year deal. However, it makes little sense for him to stick around on the Bucks roster. Lopez would almost certainly put them over the tax making it even more unlikely he's on their roster in the fall.
Kevin Porter Jr. is expected to play a significant role in their short-term future. He played on a minimum deal because he’s a generational headcase who is lucky to even be in the league.
They don’t have Bird rights for Trent which hurts their negotiating position with him. Just as important, he’s in his prime and there’s a market for his shooting.
If the Bucks restructure their roster around Antetokounmpo, he may have to be their premier playmaker, scorer, rebounder, defender, assistant coach, and probably the guy handing out rally towels just to haul this dead roster into the postseason. After years of Horst playing Jenga with credit card debt, maxing out their cards, and living above their means, the bill has come due for the Bucks and Antetokounmpo has to pay it.