I'd like to be able to say the NBA team here at FanSided — has an infallible track record with preseason predictions. I'd also like to be able to say that Reggie Miller won multiple championships with the Indiana Pacers.
The truth is, we're just as prone to blindspots and overexcitement as any other NBA media outlet and our annual 25-under-25, ranking the best young players in the NBA, is as good an example as any. We absolutely made some mistakes with last year's list, as some of you were helpful enough to point out immediately.
Since this year's list is absolutely perfect, no notes, we're happy to take our lumps by breaking down everything we got wrong last year.
Ranking Jalen Green at No. 23
This was a miss, but probably not in the way you're thinking.
Two years ago, Green was ranked No. 21 and his profile headlined "It’s now or never for Jalen Green." Last year, he was ranked No. 23, and his profile was headlined "You can't quit Jalen Green." This year, he's ranked No. 31, and I'm happy to say we've finally quit Jalen Green. He averaged 21.0 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game and started all 82 games. He also hit just 42.3 percent from the field and 35.4 percent from beyond the arc.
Green has four seasons under his increased his scoring average but hasn't shown any other meaningful improvements in efficiency — his assist rate, true shooting percentage, rebound rate and turnover rate are all basically flat. He's a negative defender and the Rockets thought his scoring was replaceable enough that they were comfortable packaging him with their second-best perimeter defender, Dillon Brooks, to land Kevin Durant.
But the biggest indictment of Green was his performance in his first playoff series — shooting 37.2 percent from the field and 29.5 percent from beyond the arc across seven games. Nice player, fun scorer. Probably not a guy you want your team to be relying on to win big games.
We underestimated Cade Cunningham
We had Cade Cunningham ranked No. 10 last year, below Evan Mobley, Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren. He's leapfrogged all three of those players this season, bouncing up to No. 3 with a season that firmly established him as a star.
Cunningham averaged 26.1 points, 9.1 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game and pushed his true shooting percentage to a career-high 56.5 percent. And, most significantly, he carried the Pistons to the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference and a 30-win improvement over the previous season. In the first round, they pushed the Knicks to six games, and he again put up huge numbers.
There is still room for growth in scoring efficiency, but Cunningham settled any questions about his ability to be the best player on a playoff team, and we definitely missed just how good he could be.
We overestimated Jonathan Kuminga
We had Kuminga ranked No. 20 on last year's list after he took a big leap in his third season, seemingly establishing himself as a crucial piece of the Warriors' present as well as their future. His raw numbers were similar last season, but his shooting percentages cratered, and he once again found himself in a tenuous position in the Warriors rotation.
He still has incredible physical tools and plenty of potential, but the free agency standoff with the Warriors this summer was more about preserving his value as a trade chip than actually keeping him on the team long-term.
His ceiling is limited in Golden State, both by his shaky shooting and decision-making but by four years of baggage. Maybe he gets his wish, gets traded to Sacramento, Phoenix or Miami and evolves into something different. But right now, he is what he is.