25-under-25: It’s now or never for Jalen Green

Jalen Green ranked No. 21 on The Step Back's 2023-24 25-under-25, ranking the best young players in the NBA. Check out the rest of the list here.

I don’t know the dude personally, but I’d imagine Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green has the weight of the world on his shoulders entering year three. I mean, how could he not? 

If you’ll recall, Green was selected second overall by his current employer in the 2021 NBA Draft. Evan Mobley, the player selected immediately after him, has the second-best odds to win the Defensive Player of the Year in 2023-24. The individual selected after him, Scottie Barnes, was the 2022 Rookie of the Year. Two picks after him, we have Josh Giddey — a key ingredient to the suddenly sexy Oklahoma City Thunder. And two picks after him, we have Franz Wagner — a cornerstone on the Eastern Conference equivalent of the Thunder (the Orlando Magic).

So many of his peers have already accomplished so much, while Green is still yet to prove worthy of his high draft status. But there’s a reason Houston drafted him when they did. Green has the potential to be great, and now is his chance to show it. 

The theory of a player like Green is that he gives you an offensive weapon who can play both on and off the ball. And while his first two seasons have been muddled by poor team context (more on this later), he has laid out the blueprint for being this type of player.

For Green, the on-ball portion of his package begins with his electrifying first step. When he drives, it’s analogous to Rock Lee opening one of the eight inner gates. He moves so quickly that the human eye can’t adequately track his movements. 

When he springs into action, Green attacks with one objective in mind: obtaining a shot at the rim. According to Dunks & Threes, Green took 6.4 shots at the rim per 75 possessions in 2022-23 (80th percentile). He’s not yet an efficient finisher when he gets there, but just getting there as often as he does has an indirect effect of producing more free throws. Green also took 6.4 free throw attempts per 75, which placed him in the 94th percentile league-wide. And based on his career averages, that means he’s creating 3.2 2-point shots per 75 at 79 percent efficiency. For reference, a 79 percent 2-point shot is more efficient than a Rudy Gobert shot within three feet of the rim (77.8 percent in 2022-23).

He’s also taken strides as a pick-and-roll initiator. During his sophomore season, Green both upped his volume (83rd percentile to 98th percentile) and efficiency (42nd percentile to 50th percentile)  in this playtype from his rookie campaign.

Off the ball, he showed some talent operating in dribble handoffs – finishing the season in the 74th percentile in efficiency. He hasn’t had too many opportunities to show his merit as a spacer yet — only 57.2 percent of his 3s were assisted (fourth percentile). But he does have shooting indicators that suggest he could thrive in this role if given the chance. According to Thinking Basketball, Green shot 40 percent on his wide-open 3s in his first two years (58th percentile). 

Cerebro Sports has a Global Search feature that allows you to compare different players across eras (dating back to 1980) based on the player’s performances in their 5-Metric Suite (to learn more about their metrics, click here). And when you look at how Green fared in their 5-Metric Suite last season, he’s in some pretty nice company historically, on a list of players including successful examples of the on-ball/off-ball hybrid guard we’ve been sketching out — guys like Reggie Miller, Devin Booker, CJ McCollum, and Ben Gordon. Green is showing signs of following in their footsteps, but he’ll need the right team environment to reach his full potential.

So, what is the right environment for an on-ball/off-ball hybrid like Green? Well, since that player isn’t usually equipped to be the primary creator, you want them to be flanked by another creator who can also space the floor themselves. Houston has attempted to satisfy that requirement by adding Fred VanVleet in free agency. 

Second, you’d want to surround said player with good defensive infrastructure. The Rockets have been abysmal in this category in Green’s first two seasons. But the hope is that by signing Dillon Brooks and receiving some in-house improvement from youngsters Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason, Houston can begin to remedy the situation. 

And lastly, you ideally want to have a passing hub for the hybrid to run two-man actions with. The Rockets already have Alperen Sengun, and based on Green’s previously cited handoff numbers, it appears they’ve already had some success. Now, they just need to further strengthen their repertoire.  

Houston is by no means a championship-contending team in 2023-24. Hell, they will be lucky to compete for a Play-In Tournament berth. However, for the first time in his career, Green has enough around him to begin to make good on the promise Houston saw when they selected second overall. And for his sake, he better take advantage of this chance because it is starting to look like it’s now or never.