Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The 2026 NBA season saw nearly a third of the league embracing tanking strategies by February, prompting commissioner Adam Silver to promise reforms.
- Washington, Indiana, and Brooklyn each hold a 14 percent chance to secure the top pick in this year's draft.
- Several teams face critical trade protections and swap conditions that will dramatically impact their access to this deep and talent-rich draft class.
The 2026 NBA season devolved into a real case of haves and have nots as a loaded freshmen clas inspired new levels of tanking. Nearly a third of the league shifted into tanking mode by February, leading commissioner Adam Silver to promise new reforms to curb the practice of tanking in the future.
The changes that Silver is promising won't come into effect until next season, when the draft class is significantly weaker than this year's group. This year's class has potential difference makers as deep as the No. 9 pick in the class, setting up this year's lottery as one that can change the dynamic of the league going forward.
The top three teams in terms of the lottery odds are Washington, Indiana and Brooklyn, each of whom will have a 14 percent chance to land the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Wizards landed the worst overall record in the league, ensuring their pick will fall no lower than fifth in the draft, which is important since it was Top-8 protected in a trade with the New York Knicks.
NBA Draft Lottery odds
TEAM | RECORD | TOP4% | No. 1% |
|---|---|---|---|
1. Wizards | 17-65 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
2. Pacers | 19-63 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
3. Nets | 20-62 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
4. Jazz | 22-60 | 45.2% | 11.5% |
5. Kings | 22-60 | 45.2% | 11.5% |
6. Grizzlies | 25-57 | 37.2% | 9.0% |
7. Hawks (via NOP) | 26-56 | 29.3% | 6.8% |
8. Mavericks | 26-56 | 29.0% | 6.7% |
9. Bulls | 31-51 | 20.3% | 4.5% |
10. Bucks | 32-50 | 13.9% | 3.0% |
11. Warriors | 37-45 | 9.4% | 2.0% |
12. Thunder (via LAC) | 42-40 | 7.1% | 1.5% |
13. Heat | 43-39 | 4.8% | 1.0% |
14. Hornets | 44-38 | 2.4% | 0.5% |
Sacramento and Utah are next in line with 11.5 percent chances to pick first followed by Memphis, Dallas, New Orleans, Chicago and Milwaukee. The bottom four spots will be filled by the losers of the Play-In Tournament, which should set up the full group of lottery participants in the coming days.
Trade mechanics to watch during the lottery process
There are various trade protections to track once the lottery results are determined next month. The most prominent involves the Pacers, who traded a protected first round pick to the Los Angeles Clippers in the Ivica Zubac deadline deal.
That pick is protected for the top four picks and from 10 onwards, so if it falls between 5-9 the pick conveys to the Clippers. By failing to land the worst record in the league, Indiana is in danger of losing a pick in this lottery if both they and Washington fall outside the top four selections.
The Atlanta Hawks will also end up in the lottery in some form thanks to last year's draft day trade with New Orleans, which sent an unprotected first-round pick to them to add Derik Queen to their roster. Queen is a valuable player to have in a rebuilding effort but the Pelicans may have buyers remorse if they miss out on a top talent in this class.
That Pelicans pick is also of interest to Milwaukee, which is picking in the lottery for the first time in a decade. The Bucks are involved in a situation where they are in a pick swap with the Pelicans, who can swap their pick with Milwaukee as a condition of the 2020 Jrue Holiday deal.
Atlanta will get the better of those two picks and Milwaukee would get the worst of those selections. If the Bucks want a top selection they will need both their pick and New Orleans to land in the Top 4 to ensure access to a top prospect.
Another team hoping for lottery luck is Brooklyn, which has been tanking for years but hasn't been able to land at the top of the lottery yet. The Nets' 2027 first round pick is tied up in a pick swap with the Rockets from the 2021 James Harden trade so if they don't land a lottery talent here it will be very difficult for them to get one next season. As of now the lowest Brooklyn can pick is seventh.