Somewhat quietly, the Portland Trail Blazers finished the 2024-25 season in very encouraging fashion. After a 13-28 start that put the team out of sight and out of mind for many NBA fans, the Blazers put together a 23-18 run in the second half of the campaign. That left Portland solidly out of the postseason mix, but it also vaulted the Blazers to respectability and brought increased expectations to the table for the 2025-26 campaign.
With that said, the Blazers still entered this season projected to miss the postseason for a fifth consecutive year, with the consensus over/under win total sitting in the range of 35.5 victories and alongside teams like Sacramento (yikes) and Chicago. Fast-forward to early March, and the Blazers are widely projected to reach the Play-In Tournament and, at the very least, Portland has a real chance to make the eight-team playoff field behind an intriguing roster.
What has gone right for Portland?
There are several things to be excited about with the present and future of the Blazers, but No. 1 on the list is the play of Deni Avdija this season. Avdija took a big step forward in his first season with the Blazers in 2024-25, leveling up to 16.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game in 72 appearances. However, there was another leap coming, as Avdija is now averaging 24.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game, earning All-Star honors along the way.
Avdija is only 25 years old and, while it may be fair to note that those counting stats are perhaps slightly inflated by monster usage this season, he has turned heads with his ability to relentlessly drive and put pressure on the rim. Avdija is No. 3 in the NBA in averaging 9.2 free throw attempts per game and, with a top-15 mark in assists to boot, he is making life very difficult on opposing defenses on a nightly basis.
Elsewhere, Shaedon Sharpe and Donovan Clingan are bringing more optimism in Portland. Sharpe is currently injured, but in his age-22 season, the former lottery pick is putting up 21.4 points per game and flashing the considerable athletic pop that always made him highly intriguing. Clingan is blossoming into one of the more dominant defensive forces in the NBA, even as just an NBA sophomore, and the towering big man also leads the NBA in averaging 4.6 offensive rebounds per game. With that duo alongside Avdija, Scoot Henderson, defensive ace Toumani Camara, and veterans like Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant, it is no wonder that Portland has been able to be much more competitive from the opening tip of the 2025-26 season.
How does the rest of the season shape up?
With a heavy nod to injury concerns that have affected the availability of key players, Portland is just 6-11 in the last 17 games. That might be cause to worry about missing the Play-In Tournament in some circumstances, but a quick look at the forecast paints a more favorable picture for Portland. ESPN's Basketball Power Index gives the Blazers a whopping 93.5 percent chance to reach the Play-In and, if anything, that might undersell it.
As of March 2, the Blazers are 4.5 games ahead of the No. 11 seed Memphis Grizzlies with approximately 25 percent of the season remaining. In any world, that is a very large gap over a short period of time, but Portland is (clearly) trying to push to the end, while Memphis is, well, not. The Grizzlies have overhauled their roster, headlined by the trade of Jaren Jackson Jr. to the Utah Jazz, and Memphis is largely operating without an NBA-level big man rotation in the absence of Zach Edey and others. It is difficult to paint that picture through the lens of an analytical model but, simply put, it would be a shock if Memphis were to outperform Portland by that wide of margin given the current rosters and the incentives involved.
In fact, it is far more likely that the Blazers could surpass the L.A. Clippers, or even the Golden State Warriors, in rising from the No. 10 spot than it would be for the team to fall out of the Play-In mix entirely. Another reason for that reality is that Portland has the easiest remaining schedule (by opponent winning percentage) in the entire NBA for the rest of the season. Blazers opponents have a combined winning percentage of just .422, and Portland has remaining dates against Sacramento, Indiana (twice), Washington, Brooklyn (twice), Utah, and New Orleans.
Can they make it out of the Play-In and into the Playoffs?
This year's Western Conference Play-In mix does not appear to be as daunting as some previous iterations. In fact, the projected field currently includes a Phoenix Suns team that has been a fantastic story but is not playing high-end basketball lately, a Warriors outfit that has major injury issues, and a Clippers squad that traded its best big man and best guard at the deadline. That does not mean that Portland is assured of anything, but if Avdija and Sharpe can be on the floor when it counts alongside the rest of the team's core, the Blazers have a reasonable chance, even if it means having to win two road games in a row.
From an anecdotal perspective, the Blazers recently beat the Suns on the road on Feb. 22. They also have two wins over the Warriors and, over the last few weeks of the season, Portland has two meetings with the Clippers that could be telling.
If nothing else, this season has already been a pretty clear success for the Blazers, as long as a Play-In appearance arrives as widely projected. They have a budding star in Avdija. They have a budding anchor in Clingan. Henderson has shown signs after returning from a long-term injury. Sharpe has clear offensive upside as a bucket-getter. And they've done it all after a bizarre tale that took their head coach, Chauncey Billups, out of action in unexpected fashion.
The Blazers are on track to play postseason basketball for the first time since 2021 and, with a couple of favorable breaks in mid-April, they could find themselves in a seven-game playoff series with the chance to earn valuable developmetal reps as the franchise looks forward.