Here's a look at whose stock is trending up and whose stock is starting to drop as we head towards week four of the NBA season.
Stock up 📈
Houston Rockets: Houston opened the season with an overtime loss to the Thunder, then got walloped by a Pistons team who it turns out is pretty good (see below).
Since then, they are annihilating everything in their path. They’ve won five in a row, four by double digits. The defense we knew would be great, but they are third this season in offense, schedule-adjusted at DunksAndThrees.com. Alperen Şengün is the maestro, KD is KD, and Amen Thompson has been better than anyone anticipated offensively to go with his defensive playmaking.
But it’s also role players like Josh Okogie stepping up, and the two-big lineups continue to smash. The Rockets are plus-6.5 with Clint Capela, their third center, on the floor. There’s literally no one on Houston who isn’t playing well … except for Reed Sheppard. Imagine if this team actually trades for a point guard?
Toronto Raptors: The Raptors were a mess the first nine days of the season. They were trying to push the pace and pressure the ball, and it was an outright disaster. Then … they stopped doing that.
In the first nine days of the season, the Raptors were 1-4 with the fourth-fastest pace and the second-worst defense league-wide. Since then, they are 3-0, have the third-slowest pace, and the second-best defense. Now, that’s a small sample and heavily influenced by opponent context. But it’s a huge difference.
One thing that needs to change? Immanuel Quickley leads the league in early shot clock jumpshot attempts. Quick’s got to slow down a bit.
Detroit Pistons: Detroit is playing better basketball than they did last season, which was buoyed a lot by extremely hot 3-point shooting. Now they’re a more well-rounded team. Detroit has been phenomenal on defense, coming in No. 1 at rim protection with the 11th-best 3-point defense as well.
Cade Cunningham is starting to get going and with internal jumps from guys like Ausar Thompson who looks much stronger and more confident attacking the rim and Ron Holland making plays, Detroit looks like a serious contender in the East.
Jalen Duren: To build on the Pistons’ success, Duren has become a monster. He and Cade Cunningham have figured out how to work together, with Cade dishing Duren 2.5 assists per game.
Meanwhile, opponents are shooting 17 percentage points worse inside six feet with Duren as the primary defender via NBA.com’s admittedly wonky tracking data. He’s making the leap, which is huge for Detroit.
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Stock down 📉
Washington Wizards: This hurts my soul very badly. I’m on Wizards Hive this season, because this team does have talent. But their second-half meltdowns aren’t just bad, they are legitimately concerning from an “are you guys still alive” standpoint.
What’s frustrating is that the Wizards are actually 23rd in halfcourt offense; bad, but not awful. But they have the second-worst transition turnover rate and are dead last in transition defense per possession. When the Wizards actually run their stuff … they’re not bad! They’re not good, but they’re not bad! But when they try and run up and down, they turn into a mess. The coaching staff has to slow them down, unless they want to lose … which, hey, their pick is top-8 protected this season, so...
Memphis Grizzlies: What a mess. Just to recap, the front office hired two assistants under proven head coach Taylor Jenkins last year, and forced him to use their system. Then they fired Jenkins when that system didn’t work and when it clashed with Ja Morant and their designs for Zach Edey to be a difference-maker. (It turns out running a no-screen fast-pace system with a ball-dominant point guard and a plodding big-man center is not ideal).
Then they replaced him with one of the other assistants they hired after not conducting a coaching search when that coach has never been a head coach of NBA talent and egos before, and are now watching what happens when a guy thinks that stuff that worked with European pros works with guys who make literally 12X more money guaranteed than they do.
You can blame Ja for his response to all this nonsense, but Lord have mercy is the coaching staff a disaster so far, and that falls on the front office.
Dallas Mavericks: When I picked the Mavericks to finish 13th this summer, I got a lot of hate, so much so that I raised their projection. Come on, there’s no way they’d be that bad, right? Well here we are, with the Mavericks as the worst team in the West with losses to the Pelicans and the Wizards.
Now, Anthony Davis is out and should be back soon. He’s their best player. And Jason Kidd is making noise about Kyrie Irving being back before the end of the calendar year (which seems nuts, but whatever). There’s nowhere to go but up for this offense.
But they can’t dribble penetrate, they have no real point guards except D’Angelo Russell, Daniel Gafford has turned back into Daniel Gafford, their defensive success is mostly 3-point luck, and Cooper Flagg is getting too much put on him too soon for a fanbase still livid over the Luka trade.
It’s not a great scene in Dallas.
Cam Johnson: The Nuggets’ offense is No.1 in the NBA right now. Johnson is trying his best not to screw things up. But he just cannot find the bottom of the basket right now. He’s shooting 38 percent from the field and 28 percent from 3, mostly on wide open looks. He’s pressing and hesitating at the same time. It’s not getting in the way of Denver’s juggernaut offense, but eventually, he needs to make plays because his defense isn’t good enough to compensate. He’s a smart player trying to fit in, but it’s a rough watch right now.