It’s NBA prediction season, and every pundit is up against the same dilemma. You never want to take the boring, safe answer, but you also want to be right, and the boring, safe answer is more likely to be right this year than in any year since 2018.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to win the NBA title again and go back-to-back.
Now, that’s not my prediction, because well, I’m just too much of a rogue wild card with a heart of gold and a plucky sense of optimism to make such a dull pick.
But I mean, come on, it’s the most likely thing to happen.
They return every member of last year’s 68-14, best-SRS-ever, juggernaut squad. They are battle-hardened after the playoffs. They have the reigning MVP and Finals MVP, one of only a handful of players to win both in a season. They have an elite coaching squad. They feature multiple top-10 picks in their starting five.
They’re long, and sharp, and fast, and athletic, and smart. They play disciplined and intense basketball, night after night.
And none of those things are the real reason why they’ll win the NBA title, if they do so again.
It’s the depth, silly.
No team in the NBA is deeper than the Oklahoma City Thunder
We talk about team depth, as in how many “good/great” players a team has. But in the NBA, with where the regular season and playoffs are in 2025, it’s not about that. You can have a roster of 12 guys with NBA All-Star experience (and the Clippers are trying) but if they don’t fit together, it won’t actually make much difference.
The difference with the Thunder is how the depth fits together in their system, and also about the right balance of redundancy.
Redundancy is often described in negative terms. Why do you need two of a thing when you could have two different things? But in the NBA, especially in the 82-game regular season, you badly need it.
If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needs to miss time with an ankle, Jalen Williams can initiate the offense, Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins can handle the ball and run pick-and-roll. If Chet Holmgren misses time, again, Isaiah Hartenstein provides the rim protection they need. If Alex Caruso needs to rest, no problem, Cason Wallace will step in and be the pest that muscles out bigs with physicality.
OKC has a phalanx of wings who can all duplicate what the other does. They can all shoot well enough, drive well enough, pass well enough.
In OKC’s preseason win this weekend over Charlotte, none of the OKC playoff rotation guys played, save Aaron Wiggins (and Jaylin Williams, depending on how you classify him). And yet they smoked the Hornets’ starters. It’s preseason, it doesn’t matter, it’s not an indication that the OKC third team is better than Charlotte.
But it’s proof of how they have built the team, that even in a preseason game, their roster looks like it belongs on the floor. Chris Youngblood, which is an NBA player I discovered existed this weekend, had 20 points. Brooks Barnhizer, whatever create-a-player concept that is, was a plus-19 with four steals.
Time and time again, we’re seeing teams fall by the wayside because they rely on heavy-minute, heavy-usage players who break down across the course of nine months of basketball from October to June. The Thunder don’t have to apply that pressure.
They’re young, so they can if they need to, but on any given night, the roles and jobs they need performed are filled. They don’t run out of guys to defend, rebound, shoot, cut. They don’t run out of ways to win.
The Thunder are a sustainable fusion engine of basketball, and that’s the biggest reason why they’ll win the title again this season.
You know… if they do.