The Oklahoma City Thunder just won their first NBA championship since moving from Seattle in 2008. As is tradition with every champion, attention now turns to whether they can repeat next year or sustain this level of success moving forward.
The Boston Celtics are a textbook example of how quickly things can change in the NBA. Last year, they won 64 games in the regular season and went 16-3 during the postseason en route to their 18th championship in franchise history. With Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porziņģis and Derrick White all under contract for at least two more seasons, they appeared poised to potentially become the NBA's first repeat champion since the 2016-17 and 2017-18 Golden State Warriors.
The Celtics did finish as the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference this past year while winning 61 games in the regular season. However, after falling into a 2-1 series hole against the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, Tatum suffered an Achilles tear late in Game 4, and the Knicks proceeded to close out the Celtics at home in Game 6. With a $500-plus million payroll looming, they're now poised to tear down their roster and start somewhat anew in 2026-27 once Tatum returns from his injury.
Will the Thunder suffer a similar fate in the coming years, or is there reason to believe their success is more sustainable? Although nothing is guaranteed in the NBA — after all, the league just crowned its seventh different champion over the past seven seasons — the Thunder's unique salary structure and cache of draft capital should give them a puncher's chance to separate themselves from other recent title winners.
Depth is the difference for the Oklahoma City Thunder
In the short term, the good news is that the Thunder already have their entire roster under contract for the 2025-26 season. They also have the Nos. 15 and 24 picks in this year's NBA draft, so they'll have to do some back-of-the-roster consolidation to get down to the 15-man regular-season limit by October. Still, they're in zero danger of crossing the first apron unless they swing some sort of blockbuster trade in which they bring back significantly more salary than they send out.
The bigger hurdles will come in 2026-27. Both Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams will be eligible to sign extensions this summer that begin the following years, and both are likely headed for max or near-max deals. Meanwhile, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can sign a four-year, $293.4 million extension this offseason, or he could wait until next summer to ink an NBA-record five-year, $379.9 million extension.
In other words, the Thunder are about to become significantly more expensive after next season. They won't be as trapped as a team like the Phoenix Suns, but they will at least have to reshuffle their supporting cast to avoid falling too far into second-apron prison.
The good news is that the Thunder structured their salary sheet with those looming extensions in mind. They have team options on center Isaiah Hartenstein ($28.5 million) and wings Lu Dort ($18.2 million) and Kenrich Williams ($7.2 million) right as Holmgren and Jalen Williams' new deals are set to kick in. They also have an $11.3 million team option on Isaiah Joe that will coincide with the start of SGA's next contract. They've built themselves some financial outs.
Granted, shedding Hartenstein and/or Dort for financial reasons could be a massive blow to OKC. Although Hartenstein's minutes waned in the Western Conference Finals and the NBA Finals, he played a critical role against Nikola Jokić and the Denver Nuggets in the conference semifinals thanks to his heft. Meanwhile, Dort has been a fixture in the Thunder's starting lineup for the past five seasons and repeatedly came up with timely plays on both ends of the floor throughout their playoff run.
Luckily, the Thunder planned ahead in that regard, too. They're owed future first-round picks from the Los Angeles Clippers and/or Houston Rockets (top-four protected) in 2026, along with a top-four-protected pick from the Philadelphia 76ers and a top-eight-protected pick from the Utah Jazz. They also have the right to swap first-round picks with the Clippers in 2027 (top-five protected) and Dallas Mavericks in 2028 (fully unprotected), and they have top-five-protected first-round picks from the Nuggets in both 2027 and 2029.
The Thunder are also owed at least one second-round pick in each of the next seven drafts, including four fully unprotected ones (via Atlanta, Boston, Houston and Miami) in 2029 alone. That might not sound like a big deal, but second-round picks have increasingly become the preferred currency that changes hands at the trade deadline. OKC still has plenty of draft capital to dangle in trade discussions moving forward.
The Thunder won't have enough roster spots to accommodate all of those picks, so they do figure to flip some either for additional rotation help or future picks down the road. However, they'll likely keep a number of them given their recent track record of drafting well and developing young players. Consistently replenishing the supporting cast with inexpensive, cost-controlled rookie-scale contracts will be OKC's key to sustaining its success moving forward.
Big Three models tend to collapse under their own weight after a while, often in part because their depth withers away, leaving them increasingly top-heavy. That could be an even bigger problem under the league's current collective bargaining agreement, which places draconian restrictions on the most expensive teams. Once SGA, Holmgren and J-Dub are all on max or near-max deals, it will be increasingly important for the Thunder to find inexpensive new blood.
With legendary shooting coach Chip Engelland on staff, the Thunder might be able to gamble on streaky shooters finding their way under his tutelage. After all, Dort went from shooting 33.2 percent from three-point range over his first four seasons to 40.3 percent on similar volume over the past two years. Combine that with their overall volume of draft capital, which gives them greater margin for error with any given pick, and you have the recipe for a team that should be right back in the title mix for the next few years.
Plenty could happen between now and then with the potential to knock the Thunder off course. If they take a big swing this offseason and add another long-term salary, they could find themselves in apron hell as soon as the 2026-27 campaign. But if they instead decide to make smaller tweaks around the margins of their roster — flipping players like Kenrich Williams or Ousmane Dieng ($6.7 million) for more immediate help — they have enough flexibility to whiff a few times and live to tell the tale.