According to a fascinating post at NBA Reddit, at any given time there are, on average, about 30 future Hall-of-Famers playing in the NBA. Some can only be identified with the benefit of hindsight — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 2025 season certainly puts him on a HoF trajectory, but would you bet on it this early? — but others are a lot more obvious.
Here, I took a stab at identifying some of the likeliest candidates. I've focused only in players moving toward the end of their careers, 30-or-older, giving younger players like Luka Dončić, SGA and Jayson Tatum a bit more time to prove it. Admittedly, I used Basketball-Reference's Hall-of-Fame probability model as a rough guide, but here are the 20 players I'd pick as the likeliest Hall-of-Fame candidates, ranked from the absolute locks to the players who may still need to polish their resume's a bit.
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The NBA Hall-of-Fame locks you know
1. LeBron James
This one doesn't really need explanation, but, for the sake of argument — four rings, four MVPs, a Rookie of the Year, 21 straight All-Star selections, has led the league in both scoring and assists, as well as minutes played (three times). He also owns the career scoring record, has the fourth-most assists ever, and will retire in the top-25 in career rebounds and steals, having played more games and minutes than anyone in NBA history.
2. Steph Curry
The greatest shooter in NBA history, and certainly in the conversation for greatest point guard of all-time. Curry owns a slew of 3-point records, but he's much more than that. He's got four rings and two MVPs — including the first unanimous selection in league history — as well as 11 All-Star and All-NBA selection. He has two scoring titles and once led the league in steals. Curry already has the record for most 3-pointers made in NBA history, and has time to put that record well out of reach before he retires. He's also top-30 in career scoring and assists, and has the best free-throw percentage in league history.
He was the face of the of an NBA dynasty and will breeze into the Hall-of-Fame.
3. Kevin Durant
Durant has just two rings, thanks in large part to his move to the Golden State Warriors. But in terms of individual excellence, his accomplishments are almost off the charts. He has an MVP and a ROY, four scoring titles, 15 All-Star selections and a 50/40/90 season. He still has a couple of seasons left and is already top-10 in career scoring, top-15 in career 3-pointers and top-100 in rebounds, assists and blocks.
4. Russell Westbrook
Westbrook has his detractors, and the warts in his game were evident to everyone except him — but you can't argue with what he's accomplished. He became the first player to average a triple-double for a full season since Oscar Robertson in 1962, and then he went ahead and did it three more times in his career. That alone is probably enough to get him into the Hall, but he's also an MVP who lead the league in scoring twice and assists three teams. He's the NBA's all-time leader in triple-doubles and ranks top-25 in points, assists and steals. Like him or hate him, Russell Westbrook is absolutely a Hall-of-Famer.
5. Chris Paul
Paul is the Hall-of-Fame point guard for people who hate Russell Westbrook. His meticulous control and precise efficiency were the polar opposite of Westbrook's explosive chaos. He's second all-time in both assists and steals and will likely finish his career in the top-25 all-time in minutes, games played and 3-pointers. There's a reason he was known as the Point Gawd and for a generation of NBA fans he will always be the Platonic ideal of an elite floor general.
6. James Harden
Harden being this high up the list might surprise some people, but it shouldn't. He's a three-time scoring champion who also lead the league in assists twice. He won a Sixth Man of the Year in 2012 and then an MVP six years later. Among the most productive offensive engines in league history, he is currently top-20 in both points and assists, and only Steph Curry has made more 3-pointers in NBA history.
But the most interesting part of Harden's resume might be his propensity for big games. He has five 50-point triple-doubles. Westbrook had three, and Elgin Baylor and Wilt Chamberlain were the only other players with more than one. Harden also has the fourth-most 50-point games in NBA history, trailing only Wilt, Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant.
The Hall-of-Fame locks you didn't realize were locks
8. Nikola Jokić
Jokić may be the youngest player on this list, but he could retire today and walk in the Hall-of-Fame. He carried the Nuggets to the first title in franchise history. He's already won three MVPs and could realistically have four. He's averaged 21.8 points, 10.9 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.3 steals per game, is already third in triple-doubles all time and there's a reasonable chance he retires in the top-25 in all three categories. Jokic is already one of the best five or six best bigs ever, and he's still just 30.
9. Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis still has some years left to add to his career accomplishments, but they're already Hall-of-Fame worthy. He led the Bucks to a title in dramatic fashion and became one of just three players in NBA history to win both MVP and Defensive Player of the Year in the same season. He has a second MVP to go along with that one, as well as an MIP, nine All-Star and All-NBA selections and made the All-Defensive team five times.
Antetokounmpo is still just 30 and firmly in his prime, so in the next few seasons he'll have a chance to rocket up the all-time leaderboards for points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, further cementing his legacy.
10. Kawhi Leonard
Leonard's case could be even stronger if it weren't for all the injuries, but don't overlook what he's already accomplished. He's won two rings and two Finals MVPs with two different teams. He's a two-time Defensive Player of the Year, a seven-time All-Defense selection and a six-time All-NBA selection. Leonard has averaged 20.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.7 steals per game, with absurd 49.9/39.2/86.0 shooting splits.
Yes, he's missed a ton of games. But he's played more than enough to make the Hall, considering he's performed at an MVP and DPOY level, in the ballpark of 50/40/90 for his career.
11. Anthony Davis
This may be a surprise for some fans, given that he's never really been in the MVP conversation and has been defined by injuries and fragility as much as by his production. But he's done more than enough to walk into the Hall.
Davis has a ring, 10 All-Star selections and five times made the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams. He's led the league in blocks three different times, and already ranks in the top-30 all-time. He'll need to stay healthy and play for a few more seasons to really move up the all-time leaderboards for scoring and rebounds but his career averages speak to how dominant he truly is — 24.1 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.3 blocks per game.
12. Damian Lillard
I looked at Lillard's Hall-of-Fame case after his Achilles' injury in the playoffs and concluded that he's almost certainly a lock, even if he never played another NBA game.
"Making the Hall-of-Fame case for a star player who was never a real MVP candidate and never won a ring can be fuzzy, but the rest of Lillard's resume makes it pretty easy.
- 2012-13 Rookie of the Year
- Selected to the NBA"s 75th Anniversary Team
- Top-50 in career points and assists
- Nine-time All-Star selection
- Seven-time All-NBA selection
- Two-time 3-Point Contest champion
- 4th all-time in made 3-pointers
- 4th all-time in career free-throw percentage"
Throw in the fact that he's responsible for not one, but two, of the most memorable shots in playoff history — series-ending buzzer-beaters over the Rockets and Thunder — and he's an easy pick.
13. Draymond Green
This is another ranking that may inspire some controversy but, unfortunately for the haters, Green is firmly a Hall-of-Famer. He's got four rings and a Defensive Player of the Year Award. His two-way versatility unlocked the dynastic Warriors and, while his regular season stats aren't all that impressive, his playoff stats are. Green is the top-25 all-time for playoff rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. There is a track record for elite complementary players from dynasties making it in and Green absolutely fits the bill.
14. Klay Thompson
Some people might put Thompson in the tier below, seeing him as a good-not-great player who drafted off the greatness of Curry and Green. There may be some truth in that, but it does miss the forest for the trees a bit. His four rings can be tied to his talented teammates, and to a lesser degree his five All-Star selections. But he's also, perhaps, the second-greatest shooter in NBA history, and he did that all on his own.
He is top-five in 3-pointers made and there's a good chance he finishes his career in the No. 2 spot, behind Curry. He's also made 41.1 percent of his career 3s, and he's one of just four players in league history who made better than 40 percent of more than 5,000 career 3-point attempts — along with Curry, Kyle Korver and Ray Allen. Add in his signature moments, like the record for most points in a quarter (37), most 3-pointers made in a single game (14), and fewest minutes played in a 60-point game (29).
You can argue that he'd be seen very differently if he hadn't played the bulk of his career with the Warriors. But he did. And he's in.
The active players with some work left to do
14. Kevin Love
The last two acts of Kevin Love's career — as a LeBron sidekick and then oft-injured role player — wouldn't get him anywhere close to the Hall-of-Fame. But they add a ring, a pair of All-Star selections and a whole lot of counting stats to an elite six-year run to start his career with the Timberwolves. In that span, Love averaged 19.2 points, 12.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game on elite shooting percentages, won an MIP and a rebounding title and made the All-Star Game three times.
Winning another ring, even as a role player, would really help his case — especially since he isn't going to do more in terms of counting stats. But he has the numbers to at least get himself into the conversation and his clutch play in the Cavs' legendary 3-1 Finals comeback might be enough to let him slip in.
15. Kyle Lowry
Lowry is probably left on the outside, looking in, but he was one of the best points guards in the NBA for a decade. From 2012 to 2021, he averaged 17.3 points, 7.1 assists, 4.9 rebounds and 1.5 steals, on strong shooting percentages. He made six All-Star teams and an All-NBA third-team over that span, helping lead the Raptors to their first and only title in franchise history.
16. Paul George
As George has bounced around since leaving the Indiana Pacers, it often feels like his reputation outshines his actual production. But even if he peaked early, he's had a long career with some serious high points that probably put him right on the outside of Hall-of-Fame consideration. For his career, he's averaged 20.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.7 steals per game. He's won an MIP, led the league in steals, made nine All-Star teams and finished as high as third in the MVP voting — in 2018-19. He's also ninth on the career 3-point leaderboard, with a chance to move up before he's done.
We're not really sure what to expect from him this year with the 76ers, but if they were somehow able to win it all and he nabbed a ring, even as a complementary player, it would almost certainly open the door for him.
17. DeMar DeRozan
His longtime teammate Kyle Lowry has the benefit of a ring on his resume, but DeRozan has a big edge in terms of individual stats. He's averaged 21.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists for his career, led the league in minutes played per game as a 34-year-old and made six All-Star teams. He's also 28th in career scoring, with a good chance of jumping into the top 20 before he's done. DeRozan's case is going to rest largely on his scoring chops, but it's worth pointing out that he's outscored several other Hall-of-Famers who got in primarily for their point totals, including Allen Iverson, Adrian Dantley, Mitch Richmond and Bernard King.
18. Kyrie Irving
Undoubtedly one of the most skilled players in NBA history, Irving's actual resume is a bit lacking by comparison. He has the one ring as a LeBron sidekick, made nine All-Star games, won Rookie of the Year and has averaged 23.7 points, 5.6 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game on elite shooting percentages. He's also burned bridges with three separate franchises, as he left Cleveland, Boston and Brooklyn, before reaching a détente with Dallas. Injuries will likely keep him off the top of most of the career leaderboards and his numerous controversies — promulgating flat-earth conspiracies, refusing the COVID vaccine in the depths of the pandemic, promoting an anti-Semitic film — may be enough to push him out, even if he's arguably a more accomplished candidate on paper than someone like Kevin Love.
19. Joel Embiid
The discourse around Joel Embiid is about as polarizing as it could get and both sides will almost certainly be more entrenched when it comes time to talk about his Hall-of-Fame candidacy.
The case against is well-founded — across 11 seasons, he's played just 452 games, about 41 per season. Yao Ming played more games than Embiid. So has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. When you pair that with the 76ers' disastrous postseason flameouts, things fall apart.
On the other hand, he's averaged 27.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.6 blocks per game for his career. He's won an MVP and finished second twice more. If he did not make the Hall-of-Fame, he'd be the first player in history to hold that distinction — although Derrick Rose may reach that ignominious honor first.
He plays like a Hall-of-Famer, but he only plays about half the time. What do you do with that?
20. Al Horford
Horford may be the longest of long-shots — a player with a long, distinguished career who was good for many years but arguably never great. He never won a major award, never averaged more than 20 points per game, never lead the league in any statistical categories, never won a ring. He only made five All-Star teams and was only selected for one All-NBA and one All-Defensive team. But, when you play 18 seasons (and counting) at a very high level, you do build up a resume.
Horford is in the top-75 all-time in games played, blocks and rebounds. But if you filter things down to just the playoffs, he's in the top-25 all-time in games, minutes, rebounds, assists and blocks. He also had an eight-year peak, from 2010 to 2017 where he averaged 15.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.2 blocks per game, shooting 53.2 percent from the field and 35.0 percent from beyond the arc.
Coming back this season and winning a ring would certainly bolster his case but, in the end, even that may not be enough. But even if he never makes it into the Hall-of-Fame, Horford deserves his flowers as one of the best complementary players in NBA history.